NBA Expert Tips and Best Bets | Nov 21

After a big day of NBA Cup action, normal transmission resumes on Thursday, Australia time with an eight-game slate. Our bets focus predominantly on player props, kicking off with a long odds one to start our day off right when the Rockets host the Pacers, while our other two don’t take place until later in the day. We’re banking on the Suns’ woes in the absence of a couple of stars to continue against the in-form Knicks, as well as a former MVP to continue his red-hot passing form in the last game of the day. Check out our detailed analysis below.

Bennedict Mathurin to have 10+ rebounds | $5.50 with PlayUp

Bennedict Mathurin has shown a huge amount of improvement so far in his third season in the league, averaging comfortably the most points per game of his career and doing it with easily the best shooting percentages he has ever managed. But it’s not just scoring that he is doing as well as ever. Mathurin has also been told by coach Rick Carlisle that he needs to play a big role on the glass for this Pacers team, and that has resulted in an average of 6.7 per game so far this season – a hell of a lot more than the 4.0 and 4.1 he has managed in his previous two in the league. But Mathurin is still a little bit feast or famine in terms of his rebounding – something which can open up a little bit of opportunity in this market. Mathurin’s rebounding line set by betting sites is around 5.5 or so, but that isn’t necessarily where the value lies. When Mathurin passes that number he very often goes big, and as a result there is some good value for him to get a lot of rebounds. Four times in his last ten games, Mathurin has picked up double figure rebounds at a 40% strike rate, but his odds to do it in this one suggest it’s a below 20% chance that he reaches that number. Players with major differences between their ceiling and floor in certain statistical categories do often provide good value in markets like these, and this is a prime example. Mathurin is a good chance of going over his 5.5-rebound line, too – he’s done that eight times in ten games – but there is a bit of juice in that market and often he has been around that 6 or 7 mark. Once he goes past it, though, he goes a long way past it, which is why we love this bet.

Knicks -5.5 | $1.89 with QuestBet

The Suns are injury ravaged, and it so happens that the injuries that have seen Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal miss the last few games have coincided with a very difficult stretch of games. Unsurprisingly, they have struggled, and that looks set to continue with another difficult matchup against the Knicks. They have lost their last four games during a run which has seen them face the Kings, Thunder, Timberwolves and Magic. They have lost them by an average of 13 points, with just one of the games being decided by a single figure margin – that being against the Timberwolves when Devin Booker went off for 44 points. That is really the only way that they can be competitive with their lineup as it currently is against high quality teams, which is exactly what the Knicks are. Of course, Booker is a really, really good player and is more than capable of repeating that dose, but by and large he has struggled in recent games when the Suns have needed more from him, with his other three games during the aforementioned four-game stretch yielding an average of just 15.67 per night on 13-40 shooting – or 32.5%. They are really thin at the moment, which is the exact opposite to the Knicks, who boast one of the most well-rounded, deepest rosters in the league – something which has helped them to win their last three games. Granted they have been against relatively meagre opposition, but while the Suns are a genuine contender at their best, without Beal and particularly Durant, they are pretty meagre themselves. For this game to be close, Booker will have to go off, and while that is a possibility, it seems much ore likely than not that the Knicks will cruise to victory by comfortably more than the 5.5-point line set by betting agencies.

James Harden over 8.5 assists | $1.90 with Unibet

James Harden is in some excellent distributing form over the last couple of games, so why not ride the hot hand? The former MVP did go through something of a dry spell for an extended period, failing to hit double figure dimes for eight games in a row and averaging just 6.25 per game in that time. But that has only served to bring down his assists line with NBA betting sites, and now that he appears to be back to his facilitatory best and passing the ball plenty, it’s high time to jump on before that line jumps back up an assist or two. Two games ago, Harden picked up 11 assists against the Jazz, and he doubled down with a huge 16 assist effort against the Warriors last game. One thing that does go against him a little in this game is that Orlando is a good defensive team and plays relatively slow, meaning that he may get slightly fewer possessions than he would otherwise. But the ball has been perennially in Harden’s hand over these last couple of games, with a huge usage rate leading to him either shooting the ball or creating a shot on a large proportion of the Clippers’ possessions. Harden has averaged over 10 assists per game plenty in his career – he did it for five seasons in a row prior to last year, when that number was down to 8.5 – and while, at 35, he is past his best, he is still more than capable of putting up double figure assists as often as not, particularly with Kawhi Leonard out and Paul George now in Philadelphia, meaning he has the ball a lot more than he did last season. With the line down at 8.5 after a down period prior to the last couple of games, but his form having now seemingly returned, this is a great time to jump on this line.