NBA Expert Tips and Best Bets | March 22

The final day of the working week in Australia will see seven games take place, the first tipping off at 10am AEDT and the last a few hours later at 1.40pm. And it’s a player prop kind of day, with all three of our bets for the day fitting into that category. Each of them is an over – well, kind of – which are always more fun to root for, but more than just being fun they also look like good value spots. The last one is a much longer odds bet than I would usually suggest, too, but recent form suggests it’s a much better chance of hitting than what betting agencies are giving it. Take a look below for our three best bets of the day. 

Jalen Green over 24.5 points | $1.90 with GetSetBet 

Jalen Green was handed the reigns far too early in Houston, with the 2021 number two pick largely left to his own devices over his first two seasons in the league on a team that had no intention of winning all that many games. He scored a few points, but was also very inefficient and made a whole lot of ‘what the hell was he doing’ plays throughout the course of most games. He still does that fairly regularly and remains very inconsistent, but in recent weeks he has turned a corner and has taken a step towards becoming the incredibly potent scoring option of which he is so clearly capable. Though his numbers this season are largely the same as last, he’s been a lot better lately and has been particularly good since star centre Alperen Sengun went down. In the first game without Sengun he actually struggled, going 5-16 for 16 points, but since then he has had 37, 26 and finally 42 points while shooting 56% from the field. With Sengun’s offence out of the picture he has taken at least 20 shots per game in each of his last three, and is hitting his threes at a decent clip as well. This scoring stretch which has seen him average 35 points per game over his last three is obviously not sustainable, but there is no doubting that he has the hot hand at the moment. Clearly feeling himself, he will likely take at least 20 shots once again against the Bulls, if not a lot more, and that should be enough to see him sail clear of the 24.5 point total set for him by NBA betting sites. 

Zion Williamson over 6.5 rebounds | $2.20 with BlueBet

The Pelicans vs the Magic could sneakily be the most intriguing matchup in a day which includes the Knicks vs the Nuggets, with both of these teams in excellent form as they go about trying to lock away a good seed in their respective conferences. One of the major catalysts for the Pelicans’ surge in form has been Zion Williamson, who has been having a sneaky good season anyway but has taken things up a notch in recent games. I was very tempted to go for his points over here; he has scored at least 26 points in each of his last five games and his points total is set at 23.5. But in those games he hasn’t been taking all that many shots, he’s just been highly efficient, and the Magic’s defence will make it very hard for him to go 11-16 or 17 like he has been recently. Instead, I like the look of his rebounds. Aside from scoring more heavily of late, Zion has also been crashing the boards a little more like a man his size should. He only averages 5.8 on the year and so the over 6.5 at $2.20 fits in with those stats, but he has surpassed this number in six of his last seven games – and in the one in which he didn’t he had exactly six boards. Overall Williamson is averaging 8.4 boards over those seven games, well above the number set for this games by betting sites. Add to the fact that you can get this at well over even money, and this looks like a really good trend-based bet. 

Josh Hart to record a triple-double | $16.00 with PlayUp 

I’m ending here with something that I do not normally do, and that’s a really long odds player props. Obviously tread carefully with how much you put on it as it is still pretty unlikely to happen, but at really long odds this looks like some pretty good value. Josh Hart has popped up for a triple double here and there throughout his career, but it’s a real rarity. Through necessity, however, he has taken on a really big role for the Knicks over the past few games, playing well over 40 minutes most games and even hitting all 48 in his last outing. Incidentally, he picked up a triple double in that game, which was his second in four games and his third in eight games. With the absences of both Julius Randle and OG Anunoby, Hart has gone from a role player to a very important one for the Knicks, handling the ball plenty and going after rebounds in a way which belies his size, but in a way that he always has. None of the categories he needs to get a triple double are a certainty, with ten points no guarantee on any given night, but if he’s getting near double figures in a couple of them then you can bet your bottom dollar he’ll know all about it and will start trying to hit all three. That’s not to be too critical – Hart is a quintessential team player, but he’s not often given the kind of opportunity he’s had of late and he seems to be enjoying every bit of it. Up against one of the kings of the triple-double in Nikola Jokic, Hart is a sneaky chance to hit what would be his fourth triple double in nine games at really long odds to end off the day on a big high note.