NBA Expert Tips and Best Bets | Oct 23

At long last, the NBA season has arrived. As it always does, the off-season was full of player movement and draft hype, while the endless focus on a certain number 55 draft pick has also been a feature of the pre-season in particular. But now it’s time for the real stuff. The season proper gets underway this Wednesday Australia time, kicking off with a blockbuster two-game slate which will see the Celtics unfurl their 18th championship when they host the Knicks, before the Timberwolves – without Karl-Anthony Towns on their roster for the first time in nearly a decade – head to Los Angeles to take on LeBron James, Anthony Davis and the Lakers. Below, we take a look at three of the best bets for the opening day of the 2024-25 NBA season.

Celtics -5.5 | $1.90 @ Unibet

Let’s keep things simple to start with. The Knicks were a good team last season and may be even better in 2024-25 – Towns replacing Randle at the four should really make them a better team, Mikal Bridges is also a valuable addition, though the loss of Donte DiVencenzo will be felt. But as good as this Jalen Brunson-led team might be, the Celtics are the reigning champions and runaway favourites to do it again this season for good reason. They have easily the most well-rounded starting five in the league, with not a weak link to be seen, and even with Kristaps Porzingis out – as he will be for this one and a few weeks to start the season – they don’t lose all that much with Al Horford slotting straight in at the centre position in his place. The Celtics were an incredible fourteen games better performed than any other team in the Eastern Conference in last season’s regular season and were not challenged in the playoffs in the slightest, and what’s more, that dominance was significantly more pronounced on their home court. They went an incredible 37-4 at TD Garden, and though admittedly one of those four defeats was at the hands of the Knicks, that was just a couple of games out from the playoffs when the Celtics had absolutely nothing to play for having locked up the top seed in the East many, many weeks earlier. The Knicks are a tough team and will make the Celtics work for their spoils, but the talent of the Boys from Beantown is undeniable, and that should see them cruise past this line after a tight opening half.

Lakers to win | $2.00 @ QuestBet

The Timberwolves were terrific last season, improving dramatically to establish themselves as a legitimate contender in the Western Conference and ultimately making it through to the Conference Finals, knocking off the Nuggets in a topsy turvy seven-game series along the way. They did a lot of their dirty work at the defensive end of the floor and there is no reason to think that they won’t be able to repeat that this season, but they do lack the offensive firepower of some of the other teams in the West and might go through a few growing pains at that end of the floor to start the season. They defied modern trends last season by succeeding with a heavily loaded, two big man lineup of Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns, but on the eve of the season they shipped off Towns to New York and picked up Julius Randle (and Donte DiVencenzo) in return. Towns is a more naturally talented offensive player than Randle, but perhaps more importantly he is also a lot more subdued at that end of the floor and far more willing to play a lesser role. Randle, in contrast, likes to have the ball in his hands, takes more shots, misses more shots, and generally wants to play a more facilitatory role too – whether or not that is in his team’s best interests. No doubt he will ease his way into things in Minnesota, but it may take some time for both he and the rest of his team to figure one another out. As for the Lakers – they go into this season with much the same lineup as they did last and figure to again be a good team, pending of course the health of Anthony Davis and LeBron James. A lot would need to go right for them to truly contend, but with those two fit and firing they are, at least, a dangerous team for anyone to play against. With the Wolves needing to adjust to a substantial change in personnel, this looks like a good opportunity for the more established Lakers to pick up a home win against a very good team to kick off their season.

Anthony Davis over 24.5 points | $1.80 @ PlayUp

Anthony Davis had an excellent and unusually consistent 2023-24 season, and enters this one with everything going for him. The Lakers’ big man had a strong pre-season; he had one down game against the Bucks, but in the other three he played he scored 17 points in 18 minutes in one game against the Suns and 35 in another against them, and 24 points in 26 minutes against the Warriors. On paper the Timberwolves are not an easy matchup for an opposition centre given the four-time Defensive Player of the Year in Rudy Gobert mans the paint for the Wolves, but Davis has shown an ability to make the Stifle Tower uncomfortable. He has the capacity to draw Gobert out of the paint, something he and the Timberwolves generally try to avoid, as well as the length to challenge him inside, and that skill set has seen him excel against the Wolves in recent times. In three games against the Timberwolves last season, Davis averaged over 30 points per game, scoring 31, 33 and 27, while we can disregard the last matchup between the two teams given Davis played just 12 minutes of it. Those numbers are pretty comfortably above what Davis averaged over the course of last season and significantly above his line set for this game, which bodes well for his chances of going past it. With a strong pre-season behind him and proven form against Gobert and the Timberwolves, this looks like a good opportunity for Davis to start the season on the right foot with a strong scoring game.