NBA Expert Tips and Best Bets | Oct 25

The NBA season is underway, and the third day of the season will bring with it a four-game slate full of intrigue. The Celtics taking on the Wizards is just about the only exception, with a blowout likely in Washington, but that aside we have Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs taking on last year’s NBA Finalists in the Mavericks, the Timberwolves taking on the Kings, and perhaps best of all, arguably the two best teams in the West going toe to toe when the Nuggets welcome the Thunder to Denver. Below, we take a look at three of the best bets for the day’s action.

Celtics -13.5 | $1.95 with PlayUp 

It might be the least interesting matchup of the day, but there does appear to be some value in the Celtics line for their clash with the Wizards. Already we hit the Celtics line on day one of the season – on which, incidentally, we went three from three. The Celtics covered that line with ease to say the least – set at 5.5 against a very capable Knicks team, they were dominant from the outset and went on to win by 23 points. We already know that the Celtics are really, really good, and they wasted no time stamping their imprint on the season in that performance, and that against one of the teams most likely to finish close to the top of the East alongside Boston. The Wizards do not fit into that category. They won just 15 games last season and were generally a disaster, and unlike the only team in the league with a worse record than them in 2023-24 – the Pistons – there is not an overly clear path forward for the Wizards. They will more than likely find themselves right down the bottom of the Eastern Conference this season, with the gap between them and the Celtics potentially as big as the gap between any two teams in the league. Already the Celtics have flexed their collective muscle with a 23-point win over a very good opponent to start the season; up against arguably the worst team in the league, they should be able to go close to replicating that margin, and should cruise by the 13.5-point line set by betting sites.

Donte DiVencenzo to score 12+ points | $1.95 with Unibet

One of the best ways to find value early in the NBA season is to take a look at player props, searching for guys who are either taking on a different role, have substantially improved, or have changed teams and capitalising on the value that can offer before NBA betting sites adjust their lines. Donte DiVencenzo falls into the latter of those categories. He played a pivotal role for the Knicks last season, but on the eve of this one was traded to the Timberwolves alongside Julius Randle in exchange for Karl-Anthony Towns. Last season, the sharpshooter averaged 15.5 points per game in 29.1 minutes, and based on his first appearance for the Wolves there is no suggestion that he will be playing any less significant a role on his new team. In fact, DiVencenzo played 32 minutes in the season-opener, and though he only scored 10 points, that was on the back of uncharacteristically bad shooting; he was 3-11 from the field and 2-8 from long-range, this from a guy who shot over 40% from three on very high volume last season. If DiVencenzo is playing 30 minutes or more a night it looks like that he will be taking double-figure shots for the Wolves, and with a lot of those being threes he should again be averaging close to the 15-point mark, if not more, this season. But after scoring just ten points in his Timberwolves’ debut, DiVencenzo’s points line is set at 11.5 – even slightly under. But the law of averages would suggest that if he takes a similar profile of shots as he did in his last game, he will score 12 points or more more often than not, and the law of averages is exactly the business that we are in. Expect his points line to creep upwards as the season goes on, but with it still set pretty low, this is a good opportunity to take advantage.

Nuggets -1.5 | $1.88 with QuestBet

The best game of the day is saved until last, with last season’s top two seeds in the Western Conference going head to head in Denver. Both the Thunder and the Nuggets are expected to be right up there again this season, and this will be an early season preview of what we can expect from the two throughout the course of 2024-25. The Nuggets enter the year with much the same roster that they have had for the past few seasons, a roster which has served them very well, but understandably it’s the Thunder who most people expect to improve more given how young their prodigiously talented group is. With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander right up there in MVP favouritism and the likes of Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams extremely talented supports, this is a side which looks destined to spend plenty of time atop the Western Conference over the coming years. But as lethal as the Thunder could be this year, anyone sleeping on the Nuggets does so at their own peril, and that is compounded significantly on their home court. Whether the claims that it’s due to the altitude of Denver are true or not, the Nuggets have been incredibly hard to beat at Ball Arena for years now – last season they were 33-8 there compared to 24-17 on the road, while the season prior they went 34-7 in Denver and had a losing record away. There is no reason to expect them to be any easier to beat there this season, even for a team as gifted as the Thunder. Oklahoma City also struggled a little on the road last season, with a 24-17 away compared to a 33-8 record at home – identical, incidentally, to the home and away records of Denver. This should be an extremely high quality game between two of the best teams in it, but while it’s understandable why people think that the Thunder will improve so substantially this season, the Nuggets deserve to be favourites on their home court against virtually anyone in the league. They are that for this game, but just barely, and the miniscule 1.5-point line looks tasty for the 2023 champions to cover.