NBA Expert Tips and Best Bets | March 27

There are only four NBA games scheduled for this Wednesday, but what that slate is lacking in quantity is more than made up for in quality. All four games are of significant importance in the run to the playoffs, with each of the eight teams either locked into the playoffs or embroiled in the battle for spots. It kicks off with a Lakers vs Bucks clash at 10.30am, before the Warriors face the Heat, the Thunder take on the Pelicans and then the Mavericks play the Kings to round out the day’s action. These are our three best bets for what looms as an enthralling day of NBA action.

Andrew Wiggins over 10.5 points | $1.90 with BlueBet

Andrew Wiggins has not had a good season. After becoming an important player for the Warriors in his four previous seasons in Golden State, averaging a little under 20 points in each of those years, he has been a shadow of his former self throughout the course of this season and averaged just 12.7 points per game, his lowest rebounding figures since 2017-18, and the lowest assist number of his career. The line set for him for this game by NBA betting sites, however, looks too low. At 10.5 it’s already a couple below what he is averaging for the season, but it’s also worth noting that he has been finding his feet a little over the past few games. He’s scored over this total in six of his last eight games, and in five of those he has scored at least 15. Granted the Heat are a good defensive team and this probably will not be a particularly high scoring game, but with his recent solid form, this line shouldn’t be as far below his season average as what it is. 

D’Angelo Russell to score 25+ points| $3.15 with PlayUp 

D’Angelo Russell has had a tumultuous season, with the first few months of it riddled with public criticism and speculation about an impending trade away from the Lakers. But from early in January, he turned things around, and rather than being shipped off elsewhere he has become a pivotal player – at least on the offensive end – for his team. His turnaround was really kickstarted when he had 39 points against the Jazz in mid-January, a game which LeBron James sat out. Not only did that start an extended run of form, but it also highlighted an unsurprising trend which has seen him regularly put up big numbers in LeBron’s absence. And with LeBron listed as doubtful for tomorrow’s game, he could be in for another big one. Inclusive of that aforementioned 39-point game, LeBron has missed five games since mid-January, and in three of them D’Lo has scored at least 39, 27 and 44 points. The other two he hasn’t scored as well but has racked up plenty of assists, but his penchant for big scoring games, particularly in LeBron’s absence, means that there is good scope for him to hit a longer value bet in Wednesday’s game. The over/under betting agencies have given for him is 20.5, but at better value I prefer 25+ points. He is the kind of player who will either be on or not from a scoring perspective, meaning the likelihood of him scoring 25 is probably not all that much worse than the likelihood of him scoring 21. At over $3 for him to do something he has done three out of the last five times, this looks like a good bet – assuming, of course, that LeBron does sit out as expected. 

Josh Giddey over 10.5 points | $1.89 with GetSetBet 

Josh Giddey is another who hasn’t had the season that he would like either on or off the court, and with his minutes having dipped significantly this season his future in Oklahoma City looks a little uncertain. But in recent weeks, the versatile Australian has taken his game up a notch, playing a lot more aggressively in his limited minutes and scoring plenty more points than what he had been previously throughout the course of the season. He is averaging 11.6 points for the season, not a great number but still a whole point and a bit above the line set by betting sites for this game, but more significant than that is what he has been doing lately. In his last ten games he has failed to surpass this total on just two occasions, and on one of those he was just half a point short with ten. In that time he is averaging 13.9 points, and he is also coming off a 19-point effort in his last game. What’s more, he also grabbed nine rebounds and dished out eight assists in 28 minutes in that outing, and having enjoyed a few games recently where he has played close to 30 minutes there is a good chance that he will once again get close to that amount of game time in this one. Based on his recent form, if he does spend that much time on the floor he should be easily passing this number, and even if he is in the 20-25 minute range, the way he has been coming out of the blocks lately there is a good chance that he will get there regardless.