NRL 2024 – Best Outsiders to Make the 2024 NRL Grand Final

The NRL finals are now underway, and the trio that has for so long sat at the top of the Premiership betting market has been cut to two. Both the Storm and the Panthers, having won their respective Qualifying Finals and subsequently advancing through to a home prelim, are at short, short odds to make it through to this year’s Grand Final. But while they are clearly the best placed teams, any team still hanging around at this point of the year has the right to consider themselves a live chance. Below, we take a look at the odds for all the remaining teams to make this year’s NRL Grand Final.

Penrith Panthers

Clearly they are not outsiders at this point – far from it – but with only six teams remaining in the season, we are going to take a look at the Panthers and their potential run through to the big dance. Of course, having already advanced through to the Preliminary Final, they only need to win one more game in order to make the Grand Final, so their odds to get there are essentially their odds to win that game. As mentioned, they will be playing that at ‘home’, though of course, being Preliminary Final week, that home game will be at Homebush. The Panthers will be play the winner of the semi-final clash between the Sharks and the Cowboys, so if they end up against Cronulla their home ground advantage will obviously be diminished, though if they play the Cowboys then their opposition will still be travelling to play. But this game could be played on the moon, and the Panthers would still be a relatively comfortable favourite. The three-time reigning Premiers have been humming along as one of the top three teams in the league all year, and as expected, once the finals kicked off they stepped things up a gear or three. Up against a Roosters team which was well and truly considered alongside Penrith and the Storm as one of the biggest Premiership threats, the Panthers were dominant from the get-go, scoring four tries in the first 22 minutes and ultimately running out 30-10 winners without seeming to break a sweat. Both the Sharks and the Cowboys are good teams in good form, but the Panthers are looking very, very hard to beat. Unfortunately, betting sites are on board the bandwagon too, and there is very little value to be had for them to make the Grand Final, but there is pretty good reason for that.

What brings them here? Would we have expected anyone else? The Panthers are angling for an incredible fifth consecutive Grand Final and ultimately a fourth consecutive flag, and have put themselves in an excellent position to achieve that goal.
What has changed? There have been a couple of big names leave the club; the Panthers lost Stephen Crichton, Jaeman Salmon, Spencer Leniu, Jack Cogger, Thomas Jenkins and Zac Hosking. Coming into the team are Daine Laurie from the Wests Tigers, Brad Schneider from the UK and Paul Alamoti from the Bulldogs.
Injury report. The Panthers have virtually a full bill of health right when they need it, with the only names on their injury list at the time of writing Scott Sorensen and Jack Cole.

Bet on the Panthers to make the Grand Final at $1.28 with PlayUp 

Melbourne Storm

Like the Panthers, the Storm are a long, long way from outsiders to make the Grand Final, and for good reason. They snatched top spot from the Sharks a couple of months into the season and never looked back, and months out from the end of the regular season had already all but sewn up not just a home Qualifying Final, but first spot on the ladder. They realistically didn’t have all that much to play for over the past few weeks of the year, but it didn’t really slow them down as they won four of their last five games – the solitary loss coming by eight points to the Cowboys in Round 26, though given they beat the Dolphins by 42 points the week before that and the Broncos by 38 the week after (as well as the Panthers a couple of weeks prior), it’s safe to say that their form was solid enough. And so it showed in week one of the finals. They were far, far too good for the Sharks at AAMI Park, showing their class in the second half after a tight first 40 minutes to ultimately run out 37-10 winners. With all of their stars fit and firing – something which hasn’t been the case for large portions of the year – they are looking as dangerous as they have all season just when they need to, and they have now put themselves in a very enviable position. The Storm have lost just two games at home all season long, and if they can keep that trend going for one more week, they will find themselves in yet another Grand Final. Their opponent in that Preliminary Final will be either the Roosters or the Sea Eagles, neither of whom will be an easy team to beat – particularly the Roosters if they are at their best. But against those Roosters, who are their more likely opponent, the Storm are two and zip this year and beat them 26-8 in Melbourne just a few weeks ago. Finals are, of course, a different ball game and nothing is guaranteed, but they will be relatively comfortable favourites whoever they play in that prelim – and deservedly so – and with victory ensuring them a spot in the Grand Final, they deserve the short odds they are currently at to make the big dance.

What brings them here? The Storm are perhaps the most consistently successful club in Australian sport, so it’s no surprise to see them there when the whips are cracking. The new generation of stars, led by the likes of Ryan Papenhuyzen and Cameron Munster, have ushered in a new era for the club, and it looks every bit as good as the last.
What has changed? The Storm lost Tariq Sims and Jayden Nikorima to the Catalans overseas, Tom Eisenhuth to the Dragons and Justin Olam to the Tigers, while Shawn Blore was brought over from the Tigers.
Injury report. The Storm’s key pillars are all fit and firing, with their injury list consisting of Chris Lewis, Jonah Pezet, Marion Seve, Bronson Garlick and Sua Fa’alogo.

Bet on the Storm to make the Grand Final at $1.30 with PlayUp 

Sydney Roosters

Having been included with the above two teams as the Premiership favourites throughout the course of the year, the Roosters’ flag chances took a big hit in week one of the finals. Clearly their path to the Grand Final became a lot more difficult because of their loss to the Panthers, but it wasn’t just the result itself that has been a blow to their hopes – it was the nature of that result. They were systematically dismantled by a team that, to put it bluntly, just looked a lot better than them, the Panthers racing out to a lead which proved unassailable very early with four tries in the first 22 minutes. Motivation shouldn’t be too much problem with a home Preliminary Final on the line, but the Roosters looked lacklustre early in that game. But as disappointing as they were in that game, the Roosters have been absolutely brilliant at various points throughout the season. They have had the best points difference by some margin all season, with their ability to take apart teams with apparent ease making them look like the best team in the business at times. They have, admittedly, not typically been able to do that against the best teams, and their record against the Storm and Panthers this year is a little concerning. But they are clearly good enough to beat either of those teams on their day, even if they would not be favourites against either of them. Of course, they’ll need to knock off the Storm in Melbourne to get through to the Grand Final, and to even have a chance at that they will first need to beat the Sea Eagles. That is far from a fait accompli, though they will enter that game as favourites. Clearly there is a bit of work for the Roosters to make their way through to the Grand Final, and they will need to play some very good football over the next fortnight to get there. After that loss to the Panthers they are up against it, but don’t write this team off just yet.

What brings them here? The Roosters didn’t start that year all that well, splitting their first six games three apiece, but they were really, really good from there on out and well and truly deserved their top four finish. Courtesy of a poor performance against the Panthers, however, they will now have to go the long way round to make the Grand Final.
What has changed? Quite a lot. The Roosters lost Fletcher Baker, Jaxson Paulo, Paul Momirovski, Drew Hutchison, Jake Turpin, Corey Allan and Ben Thomas to other teams, though Spencer Leniu comes across from the Panthers, Dominic Young from the Knights and Lewis Murphy from the UK.
Injury report. The Roosters will regain Jared Waerea-Hargreaves in the semi-final from suspension, while that aside their injury list consists of Victor Radley, Sam Walker, Brandon Smith and Egan Butcher.

Bet on the Roosters to make the Grand Final @ 5.00 with PlayUp

Cronulla Sharks

The black sheep of the top four, the Sharks certainly didn’t look like they belonged amongst the game’s elite at least in the second half of their Qualifying Final against the Storm. They were comprehensively outclassed in that 40-minute period, a 14-10 half-time deficit turning into a 37-10 scoreline by the end of the game. They looked a fair way off the pace in that game, but they had been in good form coming into the finals, notching up wins in five of their last six games. Those games, however, were not for the most part against the quality of teams they will need to beat to make it into the Grand Final. The first three of them came against the Rabbitohs, Titans and Knights, though their Round 27 win was an impressive 40-20 defeat against a Sea Eagles team in good form and with plenty to play for. But while the Sea Eagles are a solid team, they are a long way behind the Panthers, who the Sharks will have to beat if they are to play in the Grand Final. But that’s not their first port of call – that comes when they host the Cowboys, who come into their semi-final in some seriously hot form, and that game alone will be a very stern test for the Sharks. If they do manage to get through that, the Panthers await at Homebush, a game that the Sharks will enter as pretty significant underdogs. Realistically it’s a tough task that they have ahead of them to make the Grand Final. They have beaten both the Storm and the Roosters this year, though the week after they managed that in succession they lost 42-0 to the Panthers in Cronulla. Even if the Sharks do get through the Cowboys, it’s hard to imagine them getting the win they would need against Penrith to make the Grand Final.

What brings them here? The Sharks have had a really strong season, a mid-season slump the only blemish on their record, though they will still have to play out of their skins if they are to make the Grand Final.
What has changed? The Sharks had a pretty quiet off-season, with Billy Burns the only addition after he came across from the Dragons. Matt Moylan and Connor Tracey both headed overseas, while Wade Graham retired.
Injury report. Jesse Ramien should be right to return for the semi-final, while the only other injuries for the Sharks are to Mawene Hiroti, Jesse Colquhoun and Kade Dykes.

Bet on the Sharks to make the Grand Final at $5.50 with PlayUp 

Canterbury Bulldogs

It has taken plenty of people a while to get their heads around the fact that the Bulldogs are actually good, but at this point there is little denying it. After a bad first couple of weeks of the season they have hardly put a foot wrong; in fact, they literally haven’t at all on their home turf. They have been the best performed team at home all year, having not lost a game there all year up until the time of writing a couple of weeks out from final. Unfortunately that has been offset by a pretty poor record away from home, but they have gone a long way towards rectifying that in the lead-up to the finals, and that record has been tainted by a hell of a lot of close losses. In fact, since those opening two rounds of the season they have only lost a solitary game by more than a single score, indicating just how capable they are of matching it with every team in the league. Of course, the Bulldogs have not enjoyed all that much finals experience in recent years, but a number of the players they have brought across in recent seasons have so they won’t be as ill-equipped as their performances over the past few years might suggest. In the lead-up to the finals, the Bulldogs have just kept winning, but have been unable to crack into the top four. They may very well end up falling short of it, but they will be the best team outside the top four and one which is more than capable of making their way deep into the finals series. And if they do manage to jump into the top four, look out. Most likely having to go the long way round, they will obviously be up against it to make it all the way to the Grand Final, but if they do upset one or two teams that finish above them, it will be no surprise at all.

What brings them here? The Bulldogs have just kept on winning for most of the season, and when they have lost it generally has been very competitively. They are a legitimately very good team, and are capable of causing damage in the finals.
What has changed? The Bulldogs continued their long-term list turnover in the off-season. They picked up, as mentioned, Stephen Crichton from the Panthers in what is a big get, while they also grabbed his teammate Jaeman Salmon, as well as Kurt Mann from the Knights, Blake Taaffe from the Bunnies, Jake Turpin and Drew Hutchison from the Roosters, Connor Tracey from the Sharks and Poasa Faamausili from the Dolphins. With all those ins there are also obviously heaps of outs; each of Jake Averillo, Corey Waddell, Kyle Flanagan, Raymond Faitala-Mariner and Paul Alamoti have gone elsewhere in the NRL while Luke Thompson and Jayden Okunbor headed overseas.
Injury report. Kurt Mann will unfortunately miss the rest of the season with a fractured clavicle in a big blow for the Bulldogs, joining Ryan Sutton in that club. Blake Taaffe is due back in the finals, while Karl Oloapu remains indefinite with a neck injury. Stephen Crichton returns from suspension for the last game of the regular season.

Bet on the Bulldogs to make the Grand Final at $4.50 with PlayUp 

North Queensland Cowboys

The Cowboys are playing their best football of the year at exactly the right time. They have been a little up and down throughout the season, but overall their second half of the year has been really and they put in a brilliant three-week stretch to ultimately snatch 5th spot off the Bulldogs right on the eve of the finals. After a disappointing 24-point loss to the Broncos in Round 23, they pumped the Raiders 42-4, beat the Storm by eight points in perhaps the most impressive performance of the stretch, and then dominated the Bulldogs – something very, very few teams have managed all year – 44-6 in their last game of the regular season to jump into 5th and earn themselves a home Elimination Final against the Knights, rather than the Sea Eagles – a much more attractive proposition. The Knights actually gave them a very good run for their money and the scores were tied with ten minutes to go, but the better team rose to the occasion when it mattered most, and two tries in those last ten minutes saw the Cowboys secure a 28-16 victory. Their reward is a winnable semi-final against a Sharks team coming off a really poor performance in their own first final, though the Cowboys will still enter that game as relatively slight underdogs. But that isn’t the hard part of their quest to make an unlikely Grand Final. If the Cowboys do beat the Sharks they will head down to Homebush for the unenviable task of taking on the Panthers. They actually have a 1-1 record against the reigning Premiers this year, though that victory came in a State of Origin affected game when the Panthers were not fielding their best team. As it would be for any team, that will be an extremely difficult task for the Cowboys if they are able to knock off the Sharks, which in itself is a tough task too. But the Cowboys are in some really strong form, and nobody will be taking them lightly. It’s unlikely that they will be able to beat both the Sharks and the Panthers on the road in successive weeks, but now appears as good a time as any for them to do it given how they have been playing.

What brings them here? The Cowboys were hovering around the lower half of the top eight for the whole year, but hit some great form just when they needed to in order to get up to 5th and subsequently secure themselves a semi-final berth with a win over the Knights.
What has changed? There are a few outs for the Cowboys from last year, probably most notably Peta Hiku, who has gone to the UK, while Riley Price, Jake Bourke and Taniela Sadrugu have also found new homes and Mitch Dunn and James Tamou have retired. Viliami Vailea is their only acquisition, coming across from the Warriors.
Injury report. The Cowboys injury list consists of four players who won’t play again this year; Coen Hess, Jake Granville, Zac Laybutt and Jamayne Taunoa-Brown.

Bet on the Cowboys to make the Grand Final at $7.00 with PlayUp 

Manly Sea Eagles

The Sea Eagles are another team that has been hovering around the bottom part of the top eight all season long, but they shot themselves in the foot over the last three weeks of the season with a couple of defeats – one in particular – which cost them a home Elimination Final. With a top six spot theirs for the taking in Round 27 they failed against the Sharks, though had they been able to beat the Wooden Spooners a couple of weeks early they would have earned that spot regardless. As it turned out, however, it did not matter. They had to take on the Bulldogs in Canterbury, a venue at which they had only lost twice all year (one of which was to the Sea Eagles a couple of weeks earlier), but the visitors made it two wins in a month there in their most important game of the season. It was a thrilling affair at Accor Stadium, the Sea Eagles going down 22-12 early in the second half only to score the remaining two tries of the game – the second of which came in the dying minutes – to snatch a brilliant 24-22 victory. With the Trbojevics and Daly Cherry-Evans leading the way, the Sea Eagles have plenty of talent and experience at their top end, and that makes them a dangerous proposition every time they walk out. But they have a really, really tough task ahead of them if they are to make the Grand Final. They face the Roosters in their semi-final and if they win that, get to head down to AAMI Park to take on the Storm, and wins in either of those games will be very hard to come by. To beat them both in successive weeks would be a brilliant achievement and one which will make them very deserving participants in the Grand Final, but that is a hard set of circumstances to imagine. Given the Roosters’ performance last week the Sea Eagles have to be given a chance against them, but if the Roosters bounce back to their best then they will be really tough to beat. The Storm the week after will be even more so. It has been a solid season for the Sea Eagles and having made the final six, anything is possible, but they are the least likely remaining team to make their way into the Grand Final.

What brings them here? The Sea Eagles have been a solid team all year, and it was a great win against the Bulldogs in the Elimination Final which has seen them secure a semi-final berth.
What has changed? Quite a lot changed for the Sea Eagles in the offseason. They lost a number of players to other teams including Sean Keppie, Samuela Fainu, Morgan Harper, Kelma Tuilagi, Kaeo Weekes and Christian Tuipolulotu. Coming in, however, were former Tigers trio Luke Brooks, Tommy Talau, Aitasi James, as well as Jaxson Paolo, Corey Waddell and Bailey Hodgson.
Injury report. The Sea Eagles don’t have too much cause for concern on the injury front. Jason Saab is the one short-term out, set to return in the prelim if they get there, while Aaron Schoupp and Jake Arthur will be unavailable no matter how long their season last.

Bet on the Sea Eagles to make the Grand Final at $7.50 with PlayUp 

Best Outsider Prediction to Win the 2024 Grand Final

This is not an easy market to find value in – as is often the case as we get closer to the result being realised. The Storm and the Panthers are clearly the best chances of making their way through to the Grand Final and are going to be very, very difficult to beat in their respective Preliminary Finals, but at sub $1.30 each there is not a whole lot of value to be had for either of them to win. Out of the remaining teams, the Cowboys are in excellent form and won’t be easy to out, but the Roosters have been the best of that bunch by some margin all year and deserve to be further ahead in the market than those other three semi-final teams, even when considering their poor Qualifying Final performance. If they do beat the Sea Eagles in the semi they will have a really tough task against the Storm in Melbourne in a Preliminary Final, but their best this year has been as good as anyone’s, so at longer odds they might be the best value bet in this market.