NRL 2024 Premiership Winner Betting Preview

And just like that, we are down to four. Once again, season 2024 has proven just how important a top four finish is, with all of the four sides that earned a double chance making their way through to the Preliminary Finals. It’s the Panthers and Storm who have earned hosting duties – though the Panthers’ home ground advantage will be negligible at Accor Stadium against fellow Sydneysiders in Cronulla – but far more a significant advantage than that is the fact that they are clearly the best two teams in the league and dominated each others’ Preliminary Final opponents a couple of weeks ago in the Qualifying Finals. As one would expect, those two are the clear favourites in the Premiership betting, but will those odds turn out to be justified? Let’s take a look below at the chances of each of the four remaining teams of holding the Provans-Summons Trophy aloft in a couple of weeks.

Penrith Panthers

It’s been nearly 60 years since a team won four consecutive Premierships in the NRL or any of its iterations, and given that happened when the St. George Dragons won 11 in a row in the ‘50s and ‘60s, it’s safe to say that things are a little different now. Such dominance is far less commonplace than it once was, but here are the Panthers, odds on to make it through to a Grand Final and at just over $2 to make it four from the last four years. They have gradually lost players over the last couple of years, inevitable when you are as dominant as they have been in a league with a salary cap, but with their core remaining they have proved that they are still the best team in the league – with the potential exception of the Storm. They seemed to cruise their way through the season, navigating their way through the extended absence of Nathan Cleary with apparent aplomb and ultimately finishing second, and with basically a full squad on the park, they took things up a notch once the finals arrived – as we knew they were capable of doing. The Roosters were pitted as a genuine contender alongside the Panthers and the Storm, but Penrith made them look like a bottom four team early in that game, opening up a 20-point lead within 20 minutes and never relinquishing it. That sent them straight into a Preliminary Final, which they will play at Homebush against a Sharks team coming off a strong win over the Cowboys. But despite that performance from Cronulla, the Panthers enter that game as comfortable favourites, as they would against anyone in the league at this stage with the exception of the Storm – the side most expect them to be playing in the Grand Final in a little over a week. If it weren’t for the Storm, Penrith would be odds-on favourite to win the flag from here, but even as it is they are going to be extremely tough to beat. Without wanting to assume that the Premiership will go to either of those two teams, a Grand Final between them would be a sight to behold, and would be an extremely difficult matchup to pick. But the Panthers have history to play for, and have an intangible edge that invariably comes with winning three flags in a row. The Storm are right there with them, but this is the team to beat.

What brings them here? The Panthers haven’t moved from this position for years, having made the last four Grand Finals and won the last three. They did what they needed to do to finish top two this season, and won their way through to a Preliminary Final with ease.
What has changed? As mentioned, there have been a couple of big names leave the club; the Panthers lost Stephen Crichton, Jaeman Salmon, Spencer Leniu, Jack Cogger, Thomas Jenkins and Zac Hosking. Coming into the team are Daine Laurie from the Wests Tigers, Brad Schneider from the UK and Paul Alamoti from the Bulldogs.
Injury update: All is pretty good on the injury front for the Panthers, with only Scott Sorensen and Jack Cole on their injury list.

Bet on the Panthers to win the 2024 NRL Premiership at $2.30 with Unibet

Melbourne Storm

The Storm are probably the most consistently competitive team in Australian sport, and would you believe it, they are in another Preliminary Final. That has seemed likely throughout a season during which they have sat on top of the ladder for the majority, developing a significant enough lead over 3rd that they were virtually guaranteed a home Qualifying Final many weeks out from the finals, and top spot never looked like slipping from their grasp either. Even with both Cameron Munster and Ryan Papenhuyzen missing extended periods of time this year, the Storm hardly missed a beat, winning 19 games and losing just five to finish two games clear on top of the ladder. That earned them a home Qualifying Final against the Sharks, who have always been a rung below the top three in the eyes of most, and the Storm proved the gap between the two sides with a dominant 23-0 second half which saw them run out 37-10 winners. They now just have to win one more game at AAMI Park – where they are 11-2 on the season – in order to secure a Grand Final berth – very possibly against the Panthers. Of course, it’s not yet a guarantee that they make it and they will have to play a dangerous Roosters team to get to the big dance, but given they beat them 26-8 in Melbourne just a few weeks ago, the Storm will be justifiably confident in their ability to win that game. As is the case with the Panthers, the Storm were going to be relatively comfortable favourites against any other team in the league right now with the exception of their fellow Qualifying Final winner, and also like with the Panthers, if it wasn’t for the existence of the other, they would be red hot favourites to win the flag. As it is they will likely need to go through the Panthers to win the Premiership, which will not be an easy feat. But this is a really, really, really good team. They are comfortable favourites to win their Preliminary Final in Melbourne, and whoever they play will have to be extremely good to knock off the Storm on Grand Final Day, should they get there.

What brings them here? The Storm just keep on finishing near the top, and were the best team throughout the course of the regular season. A dominant Qualifying Final saw them advance straight through to a home Preliminary Final, putting them in a great position to win yet another flag.
What has changed? The Storm lost Tariq Sims and Jayden Nikorima to the Catalans overseas, Tom Eisenhuth to the Dragons and Justin Olam to the Tigers, while Shawn Blore was brought over from the Tigers.
Injury update: All of the Storm’s big names are healthy at the time of writing. On their injury list are Marion Seve, Jonah Pezet and Chris Lewis – unavailable for the rest of the year – while Bronson Garlick is TBC with a back injury, and Sua Fa’alogo is expected to be available for the Prelim.

Bet on the Storm to win the 2024 NRL Premiership at $2.35 with Unibet

Sydney Roosters

Considering that they are only two wins away from it, the Roosters are at pretty long odds to win the Premiership – but such is the justifiable confidence from the general public in the Panthers and the Storm. Still, the Roosters will have plenty of belief in their ability to cause an upset. Prior to the Qualifying Final they were widely seen as up there with those two teams, and for good reason. They have had the best points difference all season, having scored pretty comfortably the most points in the league and sitting behind only the other top four teams, as well as the Bulldogs, for points against. Their ability to blow opposition teams out of the water has been second to none this season, though admittedly, that hasn’t necessarily translated to success against their fellow contenders. That issue reared its head in the Qualifying Final, when they were trounced by the Panthers in what was a really disappointing effort given the high stakes. They were super slow out of the blocks, hard to fathom in a game of such magnitude, conceding four tries in the first 22 minutes to give up a lead from which it was always going to be nearly impossible to recover. But they bounced back in emphatic fashion against the Sea Eagles. In complete contrast to their Qualifying Final, they flew out of the blocks to open up a 20-0 lead just before half-time and didn’t look back, ultimately running out 40-16 winners. The ease of that victory could be significant given that the Storm, their opponent in the Preliminary Final, will have fresh legs following a week off, but regardless, a trip to AAMI Park is never easy, and with a spot in the Grand Final on the line the home side will come out all guns blazing. But hopefully, so too will the Roosters. This is a capable team, the most capable in the league outside of the top two, and given how drastically their status as a contender has blown out as the result of one poor Qualifying Final, they could reasonably be seen as overs at $8. They will have to beat at least one and probably both of the dominant two teams in the league to get there, something that they haven’t managed all season, but at long odds they’re not the worst pick out there.

What brings them here? The Roosters have had a really good season, but a dreadful showing in their Qualifying Final forced them to take the long way around if they want to win this year’s Premiership.
What has changed? Quite a lot. The Roosters have lost Fletcher Baker, Jaxson Paulo, Paul Momirovski, Drew Hutchison, Jake Turpin, Corey Allan and Ben Thomas to other teams, though Spencer Leniu comes across from the Panthers, Dominic Young from the Knights and Lewis Murphy from the UK.
Injury update: The Roosters have basically their best team to choose from, with the only names on their injury list Egan Butcher, Brandon Smith and Sam Walker.

Bet on the Roosters to win the 2024 NRL Premiership at $9.50 with Unibet

Cronulla Sharks

The Sharks’ finals series to date has been a tale of two halves. Based on their first 40 minutes in both their finals, they are capable of going toe to toe with anyone, but in neither game have they been able to carry that form through to the final whistle. Up against the Storm in their Qualifying Final, they held sway with their top of the table opponents and went into the break just four points down, but by the end of the 80 minutes that deficit had swelled to 27. They bounced back emphatically in the first half of their semi-final against the Cowboys, opening up an almost unassailable 24-0 lead, but only ended up winning by eight points. In fairness, the Cowboys never got within a single score and the Sharks did look to have them at bay throughout that game, but with the Panthers to come in the Preliminary Final they cannot afford to be off even for a few minutes, let alone a full 40. Overall it’s been a really good year for the Sharks regardless of what happens from here on in and aside from a mid-season slump they have been really solid throughout it, but it has been hard to see them as a genuine contender alongside the Storm, Panthers and to a lesser extent the Roosters all season. In their defence, they did actually beat the Storm and the Roosters earlier in the year in back to back weeks, though the week after that they lost 42-0 to the Panthers and the Storm obviously took them to task in the Qualifying Final. They have an incredibly grim recent record against the Panthers, having not scored and given up 70 points in their last two games against the three-time reigning Premiers and suffered plenty of hefty defeats to them in the years prior to that too, so even to make it through to the Grand Final they will need to overcome a significant recent trend. There is no doubting that they are the black sheep of the Preliminary Finalists, as they have been of the top four for much of the season, but they have at least put themselves in the mix. But beating the Panthers and then most likely the Storm – or even the Roosters, should they advance – is going to be an incredibly tough task.

What brings them here? It has been a really good season for the boys from Cronulla, but the gap between them and the best was exposed in the Qualifying Final against the Storm, though they did bounce back strongly against the Cowboys.
What has changed? The Sharks had a pretty quiet off-season, with Billy Burns the only addition after he came across from the Dragons. Matt Moylan and Connor Tracey both headed overseas, while Wade Graham retired.
Injury update: The Sharks have pretty much a full bill of health heading into the prelims, Jesse Ramien having returned for the semi against the Cowboys.

Bet on the Sharks to win the 2024 NRL Premiership at $13.00 with PlayUp

Our Prediction

There has been a runaway trio in Premiership favouritism for the past few months, but after their Qualifying Finals dominance the Storm and the Panthers turned that trio into a duo, and for good reason. Heading into their Preliminary Finals they remain a long way ahead of their respective opponents in Premiership betting, and while that does make them a little less tantalising of a betting prospect, it is easy to see why the bookies have them so short. Out of the other two teams the Roosters are probably the most likely to cause an upset given their capabilities at their best, but their performances against their fellow contenders so far this year leaves plenty to be desired. As the odds suggest, it really is hard to go past either of the Storm and the Panthers. The Storm are so, so good and it’s really hard to pick against them, but the Panthers just have that air of invincibility about them – something which invariably comes with winning three consecutive flags. It’s very possible that we see a repeat of the 2020 Grand Final – the Panthers first of, so far, four in a row, and a game that the Storm won – but this time around, the Panthers might be the best bet.