NRL – Top 8 NRL 2024 Betting Odds & Expert’s Predictions

For some time now, there have been seven spots in the 2024 NRL Finals which have been all but locked up, leaving a host of teams jostling for that coveted 8th spot on the NRL ladder. And, entering the final round, that race is down to four teams, though two of those need a miracle and then some to make it. Realistically it comes down to the Dolphins and the Knights – who just so happen to be playing each other! – but with the Raiders and Dragons still also a mathematical chance, we’ll look at them on this page too – oh, and they happen to be playing each other as well. Take a look below at all four teams vying for the last spot in the finals on the last weekend of the regular season, and what they need to happen for them to make it. 

The Knights have not looked all that likely to make the finals for much of the year, but a peek at their fixture in the run home suggested that they were always in with a chance of making a late charge towards the finals. And that is exactly what they have done. Just as they did last year, the Knights have spent the bulk of 2024 outside of the top eight, and in fact they still sit outside it with one game to go, albeit on points difference alone. After three consecutive losses to the Panthers, Broncos and then Sea Eagles a little over a month ago, it looked like any run they might make over the last month would be too little, too late for the Knights, but if they can win this weekend that will not be the case. They have enjoyed a really friendly run of games over the past four weeks, picking up victories over the Tigers, Rabbitohs and Titans – the three of whom, of course, make up the bottom four alongside the Eels. The only game they haven’t won in that time came against the Sharks, and they only lost that one by a point. Had the Dragons won last week that result may have proved pivotal, but as it is it doesn’t actually matter at all. The equation is pretty simple for the Dragons; win this weekend and they play finals, lose or draw and they don’t. As mentioned, they come up against the Dolphins side which currently occupies 8th position, ahead of the Knights on only points difference, which puts the Knights’ destiny in their own hands – as it does for the Dolphins. If they win, of course, they will jump straight past the Dolphins and into 8th, earning them an away matchup against almost certainly the Bulldogs or the Cowboys in an Elimination Final. On their home turf, the Knights enter this matchup with the Dolphins as slight favourites, and with their tails up they probably deserve that title. But the Dolphins are tough to pick at the moment, having lost to the Storm by 42 points and then beaten the Broncos by 34 within the past fortnight. Essentially, a tip for the Knights to play finals right now is a tip for them to hold off the Dolphins, so if you reckon they can do that then this is the play.

• What brings them here? Basically, three wins in the last four weeks. The Knights have been just outside the eight for much of the year, but a friendly draw has helped them make their charge just in the nick of time. 
• What has changed? Dominic Young is a significant loss for the Knights after he led them in tries last season, while they’ve also lost Kurt Mann, Bailey Hodgson, Simi Sasagi, Lachlan Miller, Lachlan Fitzgibbon and Adam Clune. On the flip side, they will welcome Jack Cogger and Thomas Jenkins from the Panthers, as well as Jed Cartwright from the Rabbitohs, and Will Pryce and Kai Pearce-Paul from abroad.
• Injury update: Both Jacob Saifiti and Kai Pearce-Paul are expected to return during finals if the Knights make it, while Tyson Frizell and Tyson Gamble should be available for the all-important Round 27 clash.

Bet on the Knights to make the finals at $1.70 with PlayUp

As they did in their first year in the league, the Dolphins started 2024 like a house on fire but have gradually dropped away, but this year they are a better team, have held onto their good form for longer and have put themselves in a far better position to play finals for the first time in just their second year. In fact, with one game to go they sit inside the eight, which means that as mentioned above, and as with the Knights, their destiny is in their own hands. All that they need to do is win a single more game, and the Dolphins will be playing finals footy, and if they play like they did against the Broncos last weekend, then they are a great chance of doing just that. Conversely, if they play like they did the week prior to that when they were absolutely trounced by the Storm, they are very little chance. The Dolphins form of late has not been terrible, but they certainly haven’t been playing as well as they were earlier in the year. They have won just two of their last seven games and three of their last ten, though included within that time have been gallant six-point losses to both the Storm and the Roosters, as well as a two-point defeat at the hands of the Panthers. Throughout the year the Dolphins were rarely beaten really comfortably and could easily have won more games given the amount of close ones they lost, but with the finals series nearing they have started to let a few games go, with that thumping loss to the Storm preceded by a 20-point loss at the hands of the Bulldogs. But as mentioned they bounced back really strongly with an impressive 40-6 win over the Broncos last weekend, and the Knights team that they face this weekend is not nearly of the quality of the Storm or Bulldogs outfits that beat them so comfortably. The Dolphins should give themselves a really good chance of winning this game, though the odds for them to do so – at just a little over even money – and subsequently their odds of playing finals, probably look to be relatively on the money – so to speak.    

• What brings them here? The Dolphins had a really hot start to the season to put themselves in a good position to play finals, and though they still sit inside the top eight with a game to go they will need to win to make it through. 
  
• What has changed? The Dolphins didn’t change all that much in the off-season. They lost each of Brenko Lee, Poasa Faamausili and Hermen Ese’ese, while they picked up Herbie Farnworth and Tom Flegler from the Broncos, as well as Jake Averillo and Oryn Keeley. 
  
• Injury report. Each of Euan Aitken, Tom Gilber and Tom Flegler won’t be available again all year regardless of whether the Dolphins make finals, while Josh Kerr is TBC for Round 27. Jesse Bromwich and Kodi Nikorima are expected to be available for the do or die clash against the Knights. 

Bet on the Dolphins to make the finals at $2.15 with PlayUp

Had they finished inside the top eight, the Dragons were always going to be a surprise participant in the finals. But with two weeks to go, the ball was well and truly in their court. A terrible points difference meant that they had zero margin for error, but with an extra win on the opponents chasing them for that 8th spot, they would have guaranteed themselves with two wins to round out the season. And with a Round 26 clash against the 16th placed Eels preceding this weekend’s game against the Raiders, they were every chance of doing that even despite their erratic form throughout the course of the year. But as if to prove that they probably just aren’t good enough to play finals, they went down 44-12 against a bottom two team with their season on the line. They stormed home with an incredible last 11 minutes to get to within four points, but that was as close as they got and the loss sent them tumbling out of the eight. Heading into the final round, they are still theoretically a chance to play finals – in fact they are still level on points with the Dolphins in 8th – but they would need a miracle to get there. Their points difference is 76 worse than the Knights and 131 worse than the Dolphins, and of course, with those two teams playing one another one of them will almost certainly win, meaning the Knights would need to win by a ridiculous margin to get over them on points difference. That means that their only hope is a draw, and no golden point. That has happened once this year, but it is, of course, extremely unlikely. Still, with their game against the Raiders coming the day prior to the Dolphins vs Knights game, the Dragons will be keen to get the win to at least give themselves something to cheer for in the last regular game of the season, but they have almost certainly blown their finals chances with that loss to the Eels. 

• What brings them here? The Dragons have been erratic all season, with a bunch of surprise wins mixed in with some disasters, and the latest of those against the Eels has almost certainly cost them a finals spot.
  
• What has changed? A fair bit changed for the Dragons from last year to this one. Jayden Sullivan, Jaiyden Hunt and Billy Burns went elsewhere in the NRL, while they brought in Hame Sele, former Bulldogs’ duo Kyle Flanagan and Raymond Faitala-Mariner, Tom Eisenhuth and Christian Tuipulotu. 
  
• Injury report. The Dragons have a number of players unavailable for the rest of the year – which is, of course, just one game, but even if they played finals these guys would be out. The list includes Kyle Flanagan (suspended), Ryan Couchman, Corey Allan, Sione Finau, Ben Murdoch=-Masila, Hame Sele and Cody Ramsey.

Bet on the Dragons to make the finals at $301.00 with PlayUp

After surprising everyone with a finals appearance on the back of an extraordinary run of close wins last year, the Raiders were widely expected to drop a fair way down the ladder this year. But they have done a pretty good job of remaining in the finals hunt. Once again, however, their points difference is woeful relative to their win/loss record, and that almost certainly means they will miss the finals. They have been pretty much out of the race for a couple of weeks now, and with three weeks to go needed to win all three games just to have a chance – something which was never going to be a likely outcome given that they faced first the Panthers and then the Roosters. But somehow, they managed to knock off first the Panthers by four points, then the Roosters by two, meaning that entering the final round they are still a mathematical chance of playing finals. But as it turns out, even those two wins combined with a dreadful, surprise loss to the then-8th placed Dragons last week isn’t likely to be enough. In fact, it almost certainly will not. Like the Dragons, the Raiders are now reliant on a splitting of the points in the game between the Knights and the Dolphins for them to have a chance of playing finals. If that very unlikely outcome does transpire, the equation is pretty simple – the Raiders will play finals if they beat the Dragons. But the Raiders winning their Round 27 match is not the hard part. They are more than capable of beating the Dragons, particularly if the two teams play like they did last weekend, but the chances of a draw in Sunday’s Knights vs Dolphins game is of course very slim, meaning that the Raiders will almost certainly be resigned to a long off-season this year.   

• What brings them here? The Raiders have been loitering around just outside the top eight for much of the season, and it is almost certain that they will finish up exactly there at the conclusion of the year. 
• What has changed? The Raiders lost Jack Wighton to the Rabbitohs, while Harley Smith-Shields headed to the Titans. Simi Sasagi came across from the Knights, Kaeo Weekes from the Sea Eagles, Zac Hosking from the Panthers and Morgan Smithies from the UK.
• Injury update: The Raiders have Kurt Mann, Ryan Sutton and Karl Oloapu out for the season even if they made finals, while Bronson Xerri and Matt Burton could return if they made it.

Bet on the Raiders to make the finals at $401.00 with PlayUp

Though there are four teams left in the hunt, it would be an extraordinary outcome for the Raiders or the Dragons to make it given they need a draw in the other game to get there. Essentially, a bet on either of those teams is a bet on them winning their game multiplied by a draw in the other, which will obviously get you some pretty long odds. That’s exactly what you will get for them, but it is not really worth betting on unless you just want to put a couple of bucks on to root for a draw. Instead, a bet on the Knights or Dolphins to make the finals is essentially a bet on who will win that game. The odds look pretty reasonable for that game, unfortunately, but the Dolphins, despite their really poor consecutive losses a couple of weeks ago, were excellent last week and have played lots of good footy this year. As the slight underdog against the Knights and subsequently to make the finals, they might be the best pick.