NRL 2024 Least Wins Wooden Spoon Betting – Odds, Tips & Predictions

The race for the 2024 NRL Wooden Spoon appears to be down to two, with odds for just a couple of other outsiders with most major betting sites. But almost certainly, the team which finishes on the bottom of the ladder will be either the Tigers or the Eels, from whom the rest of the pack has separated themselves courtesy of some decent form which hasn’t been matched by their bottom two counterparts. Below, we take a look at the chances of each of those two favourites of ending up with the ignominious title of 2024’s bottom placed team, as well as whether or not there is any chance of those outsiders coming into play in this market in the last few weeks of the season. 

Taking over as head coach of the Tigers was never going to be an easy task, and Benji Marshall has been exposed to that reality throughout the course of his debut season at the helm. The Tigers started the season well with two wins in their first three games, but they would go on to lose nine in a row before their next victory came. That was against the Titans and they followed it up with an impressive 48-24 win over a hapless Raiders outfit, but just as quickly as that good form appeared, it was gone, with five consecutive wins following, including a 40-6 loss to the Roosters and a 58-6 loss to the Sharks within a three-week span. The Tigers have won the Wooden Spoon for the last three years, winning just four games in each of those seasons, and sitting on that number with five games to go there is a good chance they end up there once again. None of their games are against the best of the best and there is a chance they snatch another one or two, but they won’t likely finish with more than five or six wins. And whether they finish bottom or not – that may very well come down to the final round of the season, when they take on the Eels at home. Of course, both teams have the chance to add to their win tally before then and potentially make that game redundant in the Wooden Spoon race, but there is a good chance that that game alone ends up determining who finishes last. The Eels have a tougher run home than the Tigers and won’t likely get a chance to win another game until the final couple of rounds – more on them below – but while the Tigers might have a couple more opportunities to cause an upset, they also have a substantially worse points difference and will finish last if the two teams end up on the same number of wins. Those two factors realistically probably go close to balancing each other out. The race for last is close to a toss of a coin at this stage, so as the odds on favourites the Tigers are not necessarily the best value.

• What brings them here? The Tigers have lived down the bottom of the ladder for most of this decade, and despite change in the coaching ranks that hasn’t changed in 2024. 
• What has changed? The Tigers lost the trio of Luke Brooks, Tommy Talau and Aitasi James to Manly, Daine Laurie to the Panthers and Shawn Blore to the Storm. Latu Fainu and Samuela Fainu came across from the Sea Eagles, Jayden Sullivan from the Dragons and Justin Olam from the Storm.
• Injury update: Each of Alex Lobb, Starford To’a and Luke Laulili have injuries for which the timeline has not yet been confirmed, while Adam Doueihi remains out indefinitely. Aidan Sezer has been suspended until Round 23. 

Bet on the Tigers to have the least wins @ $1.60 with PlayUp

The Eels’ season has very quickly turned into a trainwreck following a half decent start. They split their first six games at 3-3, notching up a couple of impressive wins – particularly in hindsight – against the Bulldogs, Sea Eagles and Cowboys, though losses to the Tigers and a belting at the hands of the Raiders were not particularly good signs. Injuries to Mitch Moses and Clint Gutherson which saw them both miss extended periods certainly did not help their cause, but few would have predicted just how little winning this team would do. Following that 3-3 start they lost five games in a row before beating the Sharks, and that win certainly did not spark the turnaround that they would have been hoping for. Instead, it stands out as a complete outlier in their form over the past few months, with six more consecutive losses following up till the time of writing to take their record over a three-month period to a paltry 1-11. Much like the Tigers, they haven’t been getting completely pantsed most of the time, but they have been consistently losing by double figure margins seemingly to whoever they play. Even with their best players returning they have struggled, though Moses won’t play again this season – joining a plethora of others on the sidelines. The result of that 1-11 stretch is that the Eels find themselves right down the bottom of the ladder with the Tigers, and with games against many of the best teams in the league over the remaining weeks their chances of adding to their very low win tally are very minimal up until the last couple of rounds. Then, they host the Dragons before taking on the Tigers, and those two games – particularly the last – may well determine whether this team finishes on the bottom of the ladder or not. There is a good chance that they will win at least one of those last two games and if it’s the one against the Tigers then they are a better chance than not of avoiding bottom spot, but the Tigers do have a couple more games in which they could sneak a victory than the Eels. With Parramatta the outsider according to bookies in what looms as a very tight two horse race, they might just be the better value. 

• What brings them here? The Eels were never going to be world beaters this year, but after an okay start to the season they have just failed to get the job done on a weekly basis and have fallen right down the ladder as a result. 
• What has changed? Not too much has changed on field for the Eels. Waqa Blake has been moved on while Josh Hodgson and Andrew Davey retired, and they picked up a couple of Sea Eagles in Morgan Harper and Kelma Tuilagi. field for the Eels. Waqa Blake has been moved on while Josh Hodgson and Andrew Davey retired, and they picked up a couple of Sea Eagles in Morgan Harper and Kelma Tuilagi.
• Injury report. As mentioned, Mitchell Moses has been ruled out for the season following bicep surgery, joining Arthur Miller-Stephen, Junior Paulo, Bailey Simonsson and Charlie Guyner, while J’maine Hopgood has no timeline on his return from a back injury.

Bet on the Eels to have the least wins @ $2.20 with PlayUp

Given that they finished in the top four last year and made it through to a Preliminary Final, it would be quite something to see the Warriors tumble all the way to bottom spot, particularly given the relatively few changes which their list undertook in the off-season. But while it certainly hasn’t been the year that they would have hoped for, it’s incredibly unlikely that the Warriors will finish on the bottom of the ladder – in fact, aside from mathematically, it’s virtually impossible. But when there are odds there is hope, at least theoretically. The Warriors have had a pretty up and down year – their season started in reasonable fashion, but four consecutive losses through April and May put a handbrake on it. Then they went and lost five of their next six, only bouncing back when they faced the Tigers in New Zealand in Round 21. That was their eighth win of the season and gave them a four-game plus points difference buffer over the team that they beat in it with five weeks to go, and with the Eels also sitting on the same number of wins as the Tigers at that point, for the Warriors to finish bottom each of those teams would need to win their last five games of the year while the Warriors lose all of theirs. Not going to happen. The odds may be long, but 101:1 isn’t even close to reflective of the chances of the Warriors finishing on the bottom of the ladder at the time of writing. It is closer to a million to one chance, so don’t bother with this one, even if the odds are juicy. 

• What brings them here? The Warriors have not had the year that they would have hoped for, but with a few weeks to go they are still on the cusp of the top eight and realistically won’t be finishing last.
• What has changed? The Warriors, as mentioned, have a big acquisition in the form of Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, and they have also secured Kurt Capewell from the Broncos and Chanel Harris-Tavita. But there are quite a number of outs, too, with all of Viliami Vailea, Bailey Sironen, Josh Curran and Ronald Volkman playing elsewhere this year and Brayden Wiliame retiring. 
• Injury report. Tohu Harris will be unavailable for the rest of the season with a wrist injury, and so too may Rocco Berry with a shoulder – though he is listed as out indefinitely. Adam Pompey and Jackson Ford are due back with a week or two left to go in the regular season, and a host of players – including Shaun Johnson, Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad and Luke Metcalf – return in Round 22.

Bet on the Warriors to have the least wins @ $101.00 with PlayUp

Early in the season the Titans were at the head of this race, and relatively comfortably too – which just goes to show the tendency for overreaction so evident in sport, particularly early in long seasons. Their first month was an unmitigated disaster, there is no denying that – they lost all of their first four games comfortably, as well as captain Tino Fa’asuamaleaui to an ACL injury for the year. They were odds on favourite to come last at that point, but since then they have been really solid and have battled away to tear themselves not just off bottom spot, but to put themselves in with an outside chance of playing finals with just a few weeks to go in the year. They had a really competitive two-month patch following that poor start in which they won three games and lost the rest in very tight fashion, and though they suffered a couple of disappointing defeats in a row in June, they bounced back with an incredible 66-6 win over the Warriors which kickstarted a run of four wins in five games. That saw them skyrocket up to eight wins for the year with five games to go, just two games out of the top eight and, importantly for this market of course, four games plus points difference clear of both of the Eels and the Tigers. That means that, like the Warriors, they would need to lose all of their last five games of the season and have those two teams in all of theirs – or at least four of them while enjoying a big points difference swing. That ain’t going to happen. The Titans might have had a slow start to the year, but there is plenty of reason for optimism to come out of their season, and they will not be finishing last or likely anywhere near it.  

• What brings them here? It was the start to the season which put the Titans somewhat in this mix, but they have charged away from bottom spot and are not looking back.  
• What has changed?  Not too much changed from last year to this one for the Titans. Kruise Leeming headed to Wigan, while Keenan Palasia and Harley Smith-Shields were useful acquisitions from the Broncos and Raiders respectively.
• Injury report. As mentioned, Tino Fa’asuamaleaui is out for the year and has been for much of it, while Harley Smith-Shields is due back from a hamstring injury in Round 25.

Bet on the Titans to have the least wins @ $101.00 with PlayUp

Like the Titans, the Rabbitohs have endured some time as the Wooden Spoon favourite – something which nobody expected coming into the season. But they were unequivocally the worst team in the league over the first ten weeks of the season. They won just a solitary game in that time, got belted around most weeks and sacked their coach, and it’s safe to say that things were a little tumultuous in Redcliff at that point. Of course, their talent clearly belies that performance, and lo and behold they did eventually manage things to turn it around with a second win – then a third, then a fourth, fifth and sixth, all within five weeks. Those five consecutive wins saw them move from Wooden Spoon favourite to a potential finals smoky, and though that run realistically came to an end with two losses in three weeks – injuries playing some role in the slowing of their form – they still managed to do enough in that time to almost certainly avoid finishing last or even in the bottom two. With five weeks to go in the season they were a game closer to the Tigers and Eels than the two aforementioned teams, but even if they don’t win another game all season it’s incredibly unlikely that those two sides would catch up to them. They should be winning at least another couple of games to make sure of that anyway, but regardless, the Bunnies will not be finishing last in what has been a bizarre roller coaster of a season. 

• What brings them here? The first ten weeks of the season saw the Rabbitohs become an unexpected Wooden Spoon favourite, but they turned things around in the back half with a string of wins. 
• What has changed? Not all that much has changed from last year on the field for the Rabbitohs. Jack Wighton is a big in from the Raiders while Sean Keppie came across from Manly, and leaving was Hame Sela, Daniel Suluka-Fifita, Blake Taaffe and Jed Cartwright. The mid-season sacking of Jason Demetriou, who has been replaced by Ben Hornby in the lead-up to a new tenure for Wayne Bennett beginning next year, has been a significant mid-season change.  
• Injury report. Each of Alex Johnston, Campbell Graham, Lachlan Ilias, Jai Arrow, Isaiah Tass and Junior Tatola will be unavailable for the rest of the season, while Latrell Mitchell is not due back till right at the end of the regular season if they bother to bring him back at all. Tyrone Munro should be fit by Round 25, and Dean Hawkins a week or two earlier. 

Bet on the Rabbitohs to have the least wins @ $201.00 with PlayUp

Like a number of teams battling for the last couple of spots in the finals, the Knights haven’t had exactly the year that they would have hoped after storming home with nine consecutive wins to finish 5th last year and ultimately make a semi-final. They did, of course, undergo significant change in the off-season, and their year hasn’t exactly been a disaster. It didn’t start well at all, with just two wins in their first seven games, though they went on to win four in a row after that to get their season back on track. Unfortunately they followed that up with three consecutive losses; but then they had a couple of wins in a row; but then they had a couple of losses in a row. And so the season has gone for the Knights. But with a little over a month to go in the season they had put themselves in at least an outside position to challenge for the finals, and kept themselves well away from the likes of the Tigers and the Eels at the bottom of the ladder. Like a number of the other teams mentioned above, they had a four-game plus points difference gap over those two teams, so the requirement is the same; the Tigers and Eels need to win at least four of their last five games and the Knights need to lose all of theirs, which won’t happen. If there are odds on an outcome then you can place a bet, but anyone betting on the Knights to finish last at this point in the season should probably be reconsidering their life choices. 

• What brings them here? The Knights haven’t had a standout season by any means, but aside from early in the year they have been a long way away from bottom spot throughout and will remain that way for the last few weeks of the season. 
• What has changed? Dominic Young is a significant loss for the Knights after he led them in tries last season, while they’ve also lost Kurt Mann, Bailey Hodgson, Simi Sasagi, Lachlan Miller, Lachlan Fitzgibbon and Adam Clune. On the flip side, they will welcome Jack Cogger and Thomas Jenkins from the Panthers, as well as Jed Cartwright from the Rabbitohs, and Will Pryce and Kai Pearce-Paul from abroad.
• Injury report. Bradman Best doesn’t yet have a timeline on a return from his hamstring injury, while Enari Tuala is also TBC. 

Bet on the Knights to have the least wins @ $501.00 with PlayUp

Now we are really scraping the bottom of the barrel in terms of Wooden Spoon chances, but there are odds for the Broncos to finish last so we will at least touch on them. Of course, having made the Grand Final last year and gone agonisingly close to winning it they would be miffed at being even on the board, but such has been the disappointing nature of their season. After a slow start they managed to get things back to 7-4 and looked relatively on track to again make a charge for the top four, but after that they went on an extended losing streak, not winning any of their next six games. They finally arrested that skid with a win over the Knights, but were quickly humbled the next week when the Bulldogs belted them to the tune of 25 points. The NRL world has been waiting for weeks for them to get their act together, but it hasn’t happened and a spot in the finals is slipping away. But disappointing though their year has been, they are clearly not going to win the Wooden Spoon. Already with a four game lead over the Tigers and Eels with five games to go, there is also every chance that the Broncos get on a run over the last month or so of the season to sneak into the finals just in the nick of time, and a return to the finals is a hell of a lot more likely than a bottom place finish.  

• What brings them here? There is no doubting that the Broncos have had a disappointing season to date, but they are not a realistic contender in the Wooden Spoon race.
• What has changed? Not too much. Keenan Palasia has headed to the Gold Coast while both Herbie Farnworth and Tom Flegler will suit up for the Dolphins, and Kurt Capewell for the Warriors. Coming in are Fletcher Baker from the Roosters, and Jaiyden Hunt from the St. George Illawarra Dragons. 
• Injury report. Ben Te Kura is listed as out until ‘late season’, while Jack Gosiewski won’t be available till finals, if they make it. Jock Madden remains TBC with a hamstring.

Bet on the Broncos to have the least wins @ $501.00 with PlayUp

For all of the teams that we looked at above, realistically it would take a miracle for any side other than the Tigers or the Eels to finish on the bottom of the ladder. The inferior points difference of the former of those teams puts them at a significant advantage, if you want to call it that, in the race for bottom spot, but somewhat offsetting that is the fact that they do have a few games they could potentially be competitive in in the run home – certainly more so than the Eels. There is, however, every chance that this market comes down to these two teams last game of the season when they play each other, and that will not be a particularly easy game to pick. But with neither of these teams exactly putting their hands up to tear themselves away from the bottom of the ladder, it’s perhaps the team with longer odds that offers the better value. It’s hard to have a great deal of confidence about anything to do with these two teams, but at better than even money, the Eels might be the way to go.

• Only 2 sides have won the NRL Premiership within 2 years of winning the Wooden Spoon, – the Panthers in 2003 and the Sharks in 2016. No team has ever won the NRL Premiership the year after a Wooden Spoon win.

Most Wooden Spoons Won

• 17 – Western Suburbs Magpies (now defunct), lastly in 1999.
• 14 – Parramatta Eels – most Wooden Spoon finishes among current clubs.

Least Wooden Spoons Won

• The Wests Tigers, Manly Sea Eagles and St George Illawarra Dragons have never won the Wooden Spoon, while the Canberra Raiders finished last only once in their maiden year in the NRL competition in 1982.

Most ‘successful’ Wooden Spoon turnaround team

• The 2009 Sydney Roosters finished last and bounced back to reach the 2010 NRL Grand Final but were denied the ultimate turnaround after being defeated by the St George Illawarra Dragons in the ‘big dance’.