Best Outsiders To Make The Playoffs – Odds, Tips & Predictions

It’s hard to read too much into anything this early in what is a very long NBA season, but even just a few weeks in there are a number of teams for whom playoffs is already clearly a bridge too far, and a few for whom anything less than a postseason berth would be a huge surprise. On this page, we are going to take a look at the teams in the middle – those for whom betting sites are offering what could be good value odds to make it through to the playoffs. Of course, with the introduction of the Play-In Tournament a couple of seasons ago there is now a wider net cast in terms of teams capable of making the playoffs, and below, we dive into the seasons of a few sides that will most likely be hovering in and around that bracket.

Atlanta Hawks

The Eastern Conference is an interesting one in this market, because there are is a very clear delineation between the top eight teams and the next seven – at least according to NBA betting sites. From the Celtics down the Magic and the Heat, none of the top eight teams in the East are paying much more than $1.20 to make the playoffs, and next in line is the Hawks way down at $3. The Hawks, to be clear, are far from world beaters. They have been a middle of the road team for a while now, and not a whole lot is set to change this season. They got rid of Dejounte Murray, a necessary move given how much of a failure he and Trae Young were alongside one another, but they still lack the top-end talent and the depth of most of the teams above them in the East. But all hope is not lost. The Hawks should, at the very least, be able to once again make their way into at least the top ten and subsequently earn a spot in the Play-In Tournament, and from there they will only need one or two wins to make it through to the postseason. What’s more, though there are plenty of teams in the league with a hell of a lot more upside than the Hawks, this team does have some scope for improvement. It remains to be seen just how good a team led by Trae Young can really be, but the Hawks do have a couple of players capable of improving dramatically to help wrench this team out of mediocrity. Head of that list is Jalen Johnson, their talented, versatile 22-year-old power forward who looks set to challenge for Most Improved Player this season. They also have former 6th pick Onyeka Okungwu coming off the bench behind Clint Capela who, all going to plan, should really surpass his fellow centre this season and work his way into a starting role. Then there’s the number one pick from last year’s draft, Zaccharie Risacher, who is far from the most coveted number one pick in history but is a capable two-way player who could make an immediate impact. There is reason to think that the Hawks will be better this season than last, even if it’s not by a significant amount, and in a really thin Eastern Conference that should be enough to put them right in the mix to participate in the postseason.

What brings them here? Courtesy of the lack of good teams in the East, the Hawks have been able to hover around the middle of the pack for a few years despite having a pretty average team, and there is some scope for a little improvement this season.

What could hold them back? The Hawks simply aren’t that good, and while Jalen Johnson in particular has the capability to one day potentially be the best player on a team, he and a couple of his teammates still have a way to go, while their leader Trae Young is a flawed player.

Injury report. Deandre Hunter has missed early games in this season due to a knee injury but should be nearly good to go, while Bogdan Bogdanovic will be re-evaluated at the end of November for his own injury. Kobe Bufkin has been unavailable with a shoulder injury early in the year.

Bet on the Hawks to make the playoffs @ $3.00 with PlayUp

Detroit Pistons

There are not all that many fun teams in the Eastern Conference, particularly lower down the pecking order, but the Pistons are one side that has the capacity to cause troubles for a few more highly touted opponents on their day. This is a really young side with a number of decent players, led by a backcourt of former number one pick Cade Cunningham, and the improving Jaden Ivey, who looks set to take a big step forward this season. Jalen Duren, meanwhile, has the potential to be a really damaging big man in this league and could easily be a 15-20-point walking double-double this season, Isaiah Stewart is a talented in a quirky sort of way undersized centre behind him, while Ausar Thompson was one of the better rookies in the league behind Wembanyama and Holmgren when healthy last season. Throw in a little bit of veteran presence in the form of Tobias Harris, and this team should be winning a fair few more than the league-low 14 that they managed last season. Of course, in order to get near the playoffs they will need to surpass that number by a big margin, but the early signs are that they really should be doing that. The Pistons lost their first four games of the season, but that was against four of the better teams in the East and they were competitive in all of them, and they subsequently went on to win three of their next four – including, perhaps most impressively, a 12-point win over LeBron James, Anthony Davis and the Lakers. The Pistons have a few nice pieces that should give them cause to believe that they will improve over the coming seasons, and 2024-25 should see them take a step in that direction. If they are to get near the playoffs they will almost certainly be doing it through the Play-In Tournament – it’s hard to imagine them finishing top six – but at $8, an appearance in that tournament would already be a win. And if they get there, this is the kind of team that is capable of causing an upset against a lot of more fancied teams on their day, which is what they would most likely need to do. An outsider with the potential to significantly outperform expectations is always ideal in this kind of market, even if they are equally capable of falling in a heap – that big gap between their ceiling and floor is better than if they were a known quantity that would beat the real bottom-feeders but struggle against better teams. It’s certainly unlikely that the Pistons are ready to make the playoffs just yet, but they will improve this season and could easily give it more of a shake than many expect.

What brings them here? The Pistons have been stockpiling high picks in recent years and it is very slowly starting to build the outline of a potentially decent roster.

What could hold them back? The Pistons were the worst team in the league from a wins perspective last season, so while improvement is expected, they will still very possibly be a little way off the pace.

Injury report. Ausar Thompson has been out of the start of the season courtesy of the issues with blood clotting which cut his rookie season short, while new recruit Bobi Klintman has no timeline on his return from a calf injury.

 
Bet on the Pistons to make the playoffs @ $8.00 with PlayUp

Brooklyn Nets

The Nets have been in freefall since their attempt at a super team failed so miserably a few years ago, and after Mikal Bridges headed across the city to the Knicks in the off-season, they have been left with a pretty thin roster that is widely expected to finish towards the bottom of the Eastern Conference this season. And maybe it will. But the fact remains that the East seriously lacks depth, and while the Nets don’t exactly have a great team, they do have a lot of decent players, which could be enough to win quite a few games in the East. Certainly they started that way, splitting their first eight games at 4-4 in a period which included two wins over the Grizzlies, one over the Bucks, another over the Bulls and an overtime loss to the Nuggets. In an ideal world Cam Thomas wouldn’t play as significant a role as he will this season, but while he’s not the most efficient offensive player in the world he is a very capable scorer who could feasibly challenge for the scoring title this season given how much responsibility he will have. Dennis Schroder is a solid point guard alongside him in the back court, Cam Johnson is a constant outside threat, while Nic Claxton is a developing big man with plenty of defensive potential. Meanwhile, Ben Simmons, while as flawed as ever, appears to actually be healthy and provides another potentially elite defender and a good playmaker in transition, and Bojan Bogdanovic is a good solid NBA player once he gets back out on the court. None of those players are stars – in fact none of them are even really close to being All-Star level talent – but none of them are bad either. It’s not a team that looks likely to play in the playoffs, but equally it’s one that could be better than quite a few teams in the Eastern Conference and put themselves in the mix for the Play-In Tournament as a result. Realistically it’s unlikely that they make the postseason, but at $21 they look far too long given the likely struggles of a few other teams in their Conference. 

What brings them here? The Nets have been sliding down the standings since Irving, Durant and Harden left and will potentially continue to do so this season, but at long odds they’re not the worst outsider to play in the postseason given their raft of decent NBA players.

What could hold them back? A lack of bonafide talent. No one on the Nets is a genuine star or even particularly close to it, so they will need to gel extremely well as a team to challenge for the playoffs.

Injury report. Bojan Bogdanovic has missed a few weeks to start the season due to a foot injury, while Simmons is being managed carefully with back to back.

Bet on the Nets to make the playoffs @ $21.00 with PlayUp

Houston Rockets

The Western Conference is a more interesting battle ground than the East, with a much deeper collection of teams and a lot more predictability about who will finish where. One of the teams which is expected to take a step forward this season and make things even more difficult to predict is the Rockets. They have a host of young talent at their disposal, led by the man dubbed ‘Mini Jokic’ in Alperen Sengun, as well as the undeniably talented Jalen Green – who finally appears to be finding his feet at the top level – and second year wing Amen Thompson. Add a bit of veteran presence in the form of Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks to the mix, as well as rookie Reed Sheppard and new addition Steven Adams – who backs up Sengun at the five – and there is plenty to like about this young team. And they have shown exactly what they are capable of early in the season. After a disappointing start in which they gave up a big lead against the Hornets to lose by five points, they have smacked the Grizzlies to the tune of 20 points, and beaten a couple of really good teams in the Mavericks and the Knicks. Being a playoff team in the Western Conference is a really tough ask – much tougher than it is in the East – but the Rockets have the tools at their disposal to put themselves right in the mix. At close to odds on to make it with most betting sites, they are about 10th on the list in the Western Conference, which, if those odds prove accurate, will have them right around the Play-In Tournament. If the West is anything like last season, there won’t be too much between the teams who dodge that tournament and finish in the top six, and those who miss out on it entirely, and the Rockets are likely to be right in amongst this mix. They’ve got some good teams that they need to outperform, but there is a high ceiling on this team, and at nearly $2 they don’t look like the worst bet out there.

What brings them here? The Rockets have been stuck at the bottom of the West for a while now, but took a big step forward last season and should be able to continue trending in the right direction this season.

What could hold them back? The Rockets are still developing, and in a really competitive Western Conference, if they stagnate at all this season they will be left in the wake by their opposition.

Injury report. The Rockets are pretty healthy early in the season, with only a couple of players listed as day to day at the time of writing.

Bet on the Rockets to make the playoffs @ $1.90 with PlayUp

New Orleans Pelicans 

The Pelicans had a poor start to the season, dropping five of six games after winning their opening two, but that has served to make them one of the better value bets to make the playoffs. Injuries played some role in that form, CJ McCollum, Dejounte Murray and Trey Murphy III the most notable among them, but moving forward they have more than enough talent on their roster to make the playoffs even in a competitive Western Conference. When fully fit, the Pelicans have a really talented and well-rounded roster – Murray and McCollum leading the backcourt, Brandon Ingram and Herb Jones patrolling the wings and Zion Williamson at centre, and Murphy capable of challenging for a spot in a very competitive starting lineup in his fourth season in the league. That is a good, good team – plenty of scoring options, a number of potential of ball handlers and some really good defenders. Already last season they won 49 games – which had them 7th in the West but only two games back from 4th – and there is reason to think that they will be even better this season if injury doesn’t hold them back too much. Murray is a good pickup, providing them with an actual point guard – something they probably lacked at times last season – who can also be a really dangerous defender and play off ball, while Murphy III should take another step forward. Oh, and then there’s Zion Williamson – the injuries he’s suffered early in his season have stunted his growth, but his upside remains absolutely through the roof and if he can stay healthy in his 5th season in the league, could take them to the next level this season. This is a potentially really good team, and a few losses to start the season doesn’t change that, even if the injuries that have played a major role in that will persist for a few more weeks. Playoffs should be the expectation for the Pelicans, and at nearly $3 they are one of the best outside picks to make the playoffs.

What brings them here? The Pelicans have made some nice off-season moves in recent seasons, and combined with a few high draft picks that has seen them gradually develop a really good roster.

What could hold them back? Injuries are doing a good job of stunting the Pelicans’ start to the season, and if they continue then it will obviously put a big dent in their playoff hopes.

Injury report. McCollum’s injury will see him miss at least the first few weeks of the season while the hand injury Murray suffered early in the season has him sidelined for at least a month. Trey Murphy III is due back a little bit before McCollum.

Bet on the Pelicans to make the playoffs @ $2.70 with PlayUp

San Antonio Spurs 

Given that the Spurs won just 22 games in a very competitive Western Conference last season and finished 2nd last, it’s understandable why the Spurs are at pretty long odds to make the playoffs this season. But there is one major reason why they are capable of making a major leap in 2024-25, and his name is Victor Wembanyama. Last year’s number one pick lived up to every bit of the absurd hype which surrounded him coming into the league, and in his second year the extent of his progression is anybody’s guess. Taking a team from 22 wins to probably the nearly 50 that would be needed to make the postseason is an enormous ask for a second year player and may well prove to be out of the equation, but so talented is Wemby that it would be no great surprise to see him ending the season with some sort of alien average stat line that helps lead his young team up the Western Conference standings. Of course, as dominant a player as he is capable of being, there is more to the Spurs than just Wembanyama. In the off-season they brought across Chris Paul, whose veteran experience they hope will have a positive impact on the young Spurs, and more importantly, actually gives them a point guard who might have a chance at providing their star with a few more easy buckets. They don’t exactly have a brilliant team elsewhere, though Julian Champagnie has shown some nice signs of improvement early in the season, Keldon Johnson provides a bit of spark off the bench and Stephon Castle is a high pick from last season. They have already had a few nice results to start the season, most notably when they beat the Timberwolves by ten points, while they also beat a Rockets team who is also likely to be around the middle parts of the Western Conference standings come season’s end. There is a lot of improvement needed for the Spurs to challenge for the playoffs and they might not be quite ready to get there yet, but with perhaps the most prodigiously talented player we have ever seen in the league now entering his second year, they could provide some value at close to $6.

What brings them here? Victor Wembanyama, basically. Outside of him this is clearly not a playoff level roster, but if he can dominate the way he is capable of it could raise their ceiling significantly.

What could hold them back? A lack of talent outside of their star centre. Chris Paul is obviously one of the best floor generals in history, but he’s also nearly 40, while a lot of their other young talent is either still a little way off, or not that good.

Injury report. Devin Vassell has been forced to miss a few games early in the season with a foot injury, but shouldn’t be out for too long.

Bet on the Spurs to make the playoffs @ $5.50 with PlayUp 

The situations in the Eastern Conference and Western Conference are very different, with eight clear frontrunners in the East as compared to a host of potential playoff teams in the West. That does, of course, mean that there are some long odds team in the East who could be good value, but it’s on the other side of the country where the best value might reside. The Pelicans have a really, really good roster when they are fully fit, and should really be expecting to play in the postseason this year. But a slow start to the season and a couple of medium-term injuries to important players have seen their odds balloon out to nearly $3. Of course, the absence of those players for a few weeks will hurt, but if they can hold on and win a few games through that period, once they get their troops back they should be able to work their way up the standings. It’s a very competitive Conference and one in which they will likely need to win close to 50 games to make the postseason, but having done that last season and probably got even better this year, they should be closer to odds on than what they are.