Best Outsiders To Make The Playoffs – Odds, Tips & Predictions

With the NBA season right around a quarter of the way through, there are a number of teams that are already virtually locked into the playoffs, with the likes of the Celtics, Cavaliers, Knicks and Thunder certain to make it barring an absolute catastrophe. Indeed, there are already plenty of other teams at very short odds to make it through to the postseason, but we are going to look beyond those to try to find a little bit of value. Likely there will be at least a couple of teams at better than ever money odds to make it currently who do end up there, and below, we take a look at the teams who might fit into that category.

Philadelphia 76ers

It might seem strange to have a team sitting right down the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings nearly a quarter of the way into the season at the top of this list, particularly given they are not even really an outsider, but the value is there for the Sixers to make the playoffs. Their start to the season has been atrocious, there is no doubting that, but this team at its best remains one of the better chances to beat the Celtics in the East, as hard as that might be to see right now. The Sixers core of Joel Embiid, Paul George and Tyrese Maxey is extremely talented and could fit really well together once they spend some time on the floor together, but unfortunately they are also a very injury prone group – particularly Embiid and George – and have not yet had much of an opportunity. Instead, they have been heavily reliant on rookie Jared McCain, who, impressive as he has been, is not going to lead a team to the playoffs on his own. But Embiid, George and Maxey have all worked their way back onto the floor. Injuries will no doubt rear their ugly head at some point once again during the season, but even if they only have a couple of these guys out there they should be winning a hell of a lot more than they are losing. The Sixers have a lot of work to do to climb their way back up the standings, but there is a serious lack of depth in the East and it won’t take nearly as many wins to make the playoffs as it will in the West. Barring a disaster in which a couple of their stars suffer long-term injuries, the Sixers should be able to climb past enough of the teams currently above them to appear in the postseason, where, if fit, they could cause plenty of damage.

What brings them here? Even with Embiid and Maxey as their two stars last season the Sixers were able to win 47 games, and with the addition of George their ceiling is now even higher.

What could hold them back? Injuries. Already this has caused them to lose a lot of games to start the season, and continued injury issues could certainly prevent the Sixers from making the playoffs.

Injury report. Embiid will continue to battle a knee injury which will likely see him miss games here and there, but he is at least back to the point where he is a game by game proposition. Likewise George with a knee injury of his own.

Bet on the Sixers to make the playoffs @ $1.58 with PlayUp

Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks have been stuck in mediocrity for a number of seasons now, and their start to 2024-25 would suggest that they are in for more of the same. But while in the past that has been the sort of depressing mediocrity in which there appears little hope for any sort of meaningful improvement, this team is now starting to develop a few really nice pieces which could see them develop significantly in the coming years – and perhaps even as this season wears on. Trae Young is a really good player albeit severely defensively limited, and with him as the focal point of a team there is probably a limit on how good they can be. Help is beginning to appear around him though. Jalen Johnson is unsurprisingly one of the major candidates for the Most Improved Player Award, the 2024 number one draft pick Zaccharie Risacher has plenty of talent, and Dyson Daniels has improved out of sight. Even more impressive is their depth; the very capable young centre Onyeka Okungwu should soon replace Clint Capela as their starting five, De’Andre Hunter is clearly a starting quality player in the NBA, while Bogdan Bogdanovic is a perennial candidate for Sixth Man of the Year. No longer is this just a team which doesn’t really have the scope to improve; they have quite a lot of young talent all of a sudden, and in a very average Eastern Conference that could easily see them right in the mix for the playoffs. From a win/loss perspective their start to the season has seen them trending towards a similar result to recent years; a win total in the high 30s, and a finish somewhere in the Play-In Tournament. That still may very well be the case, but with a number of talented young players they would be very capable of beating the teams they are likely to meet in that tournament. The Hawks might end up winning 38 or 39 games again this season, but a recent win over the Cavs showed their capability and they could easily get into the 40s. That could be enough to get them into the 7 vs 8 Play-In Game or potentially even beyond, at which point the nearly $3 on offer with betting sites would have been hammered in. At worst they should be in the mix for the Play-In Tournament, and with room for improvement their current odds look like decent value.

What brings them here? The Trae Young era has seen the Hawks be by and large pretty mediocre, but the continued addition of talent through a number of high draft picks have seen them develop a solid core of young players.

What could hold them back? A lot of those young players still have a way to go, while defensively the Hawks are also really bad, as they have been for years.

Injury report. The Hawks are looking pretty good from an injury standpoint at the time of writing. 

Bet on the Hawks to make the playoffs @ $2.90 with PlayUp

Detroit Pistons

The Pistons are finally getting a little bit frisky. After being stuck to the bottom of the Western Conference standings, their accumulation of high draft picks has finally resulted in a team with a fair bit of talent, even if they are still relatively raw at this stage. With Cade Cunningham at the helm, Jaden Ivey having improved significantly alongside him in the backcourt, and names like Ausar Thompson and Jalen Duren all capable of being valuable NBA players, there is a bit to like about this team. Duren has admittedly struggled in his third season in the league after showing drastic improvement between his first and second years, but even so, the Pistons have been competitive in most games they have played in and have been winning at a pace which has kept them right around the middle parts of the Eastern Conference standings. The East is interesting in that it has a top eight that look pretty likely to occupy the eight playoff spots, but there is a grouping of teams below them in the Hawks, Bulls, Hornets and Pistons who seem at least capable of challenging that status quo if all goes well. At the time of writing, the Pistons have clearly the best net rating of those four teams. Their offence has not been great, but defensively they have been quite solid, slightly above league average and right around the best defensive team in the league last season in the Timberwolves. If they can keep that up and their offensive can continue to develop, ideally with some improved output from Duren, then they should be able to hover probably a little under .500. That does not make them a great team by any means, but in the Eastern Conference, a win total in the high 30s is likely enough to get a team into the Play-In Tournament. The Pistons would most likely be underdogs in any of those games, but given they are just one-off games rather than series, the potential for an upset is much greater than in the playoffs themselves. What’s more, given their age, the Pistons do have scope to improve as the season wears on, and if they do that they could be right in the mix. They are at long odds for a reason and are realistically up against it to make the playoffs, but they are far from out of the race and should hang around the Play-In spots all season.

What brings them here? The Pistons have gradually acquired a number of decent young players, with Cade Cunningham the best of them and a couple of handy pieces around him.

What could hold them back? Cunningham is good but he is not a superstar at this point by any means, and while they do have young talent, a lot of those players are a long way from their best just yet.

Injury report. Cade Cunningham and Tobias Harris have had some short-term issues to deal with, while new recruit Bobi Klintman has been out all season and has no timetable for a return just yet.

Bet on the Pistons to make the playoffs @ $6.50 with PlayUp

Los Angeles Clippers

The 2024-25 season didn’t necessarily promise a lot for the Clippers after Paul George left for Philadelphia, particularly with Kawhi Leonard AWOL and with no signs of returning anytime soon. But somehow, they have found a way to be really competitive early in the season. James Harden has been really solid, facilitating at a high level and taking on a much more significant scoring role on this team than he did last season, though he has not been at all efficient in doing it. That aside, Norm Powell has been really important, but the rest of their mish mash of a team basically just has a bunch of role players, so it’s probably not all that surprising that they are a bottom ten offence in the league. They have still been able to win a lot more than they have lost early in the season, however, courtesy of some very surprising defensive prowess. Tyronn Lue has clearly instilled an increased sense of urgency at that end of the floor, something which was very much required given their offence, and it’s seen them be a top five defence in the league through the first 20 games of the season. Without Kawhi Leonard there is not that much scope for this team to be substantially better than they are on offence, so for them to continue to win as often as they have early in the season it will need to be on the back of some excellent defence. If they do maintain it, however, there is no reason they can’t continue to be really competitive. We saw with the Timberwolves last season just how far a quality defence can take a team, and while they did have a better offence than the Clippers and were the best defensive team in the league by a mile, they were also right up the top of the Western Conference standings and ultimately made it through to the Western Conference Finals. We just need the Clippers to make the playoffs. With 12 wins from their first 20 games they have got off to a great start, and while competition for spots in the top eight in the West will be fierce, if they keep playing at their current level they will be right in the mix, and at even money odds look like decent value.

What brings them here? The Clippers certainly don’t have a particularly talented team especially without Kawhi, but the high quality defence they have displayed so far this season has been enough to put them in the mix.

What could hold them back? Their offence. The Clippers are run by James Harden, who can still run an offence to a high level but is shooting below 40% from the field. Without Leonard, they are stretched very thin at that end of the floor.

Injury report. Leonard is obviously the major concern, though exactly what is going on there is anyone’s guess. He’s been out with a knee all season, though returned to ‘some shooting work’ in late November. A Norm Powell hamstring injury also saw him miss a few games in late November.

Bet on the Clippers to make the playoffs @ $2.00 with PlayUp

Sacramento Kings

The Kings’ return to the playoffs after 17 years in 2022-23 was short-lived, after they were beaten in the First Round by the Warriors and then missed out on the postseason entirely last season. They were, however, right around the mark, winning 46 games to finish in 9th and make it through to the Play-In Tournament. They should put themselves in a similar position this season, and at better than even money odds look like reasonable value. The Kings have a similar team to what they did last season but have added DeMar DeRozan, giving them an added element of potency to an offence run by De’Aaron Fox, and with Domantas Sabonis playing a key role too. Malik Monk is a weapon off the bench, and while Keegan Murray has struggled early in his second season, he is also a talented player. This is not a great team but it is a really good one, and in the Eastern Conference they would easily be making the playoffs. Unfortunately for them, they are in a talent-packed West, and as has been the case for the past few years will need a win tally in the high 40s to compete for the playoffs. But they have won 48 and 46 games the past two seasons, and should be looking at a similar number this time around. If the West is as close as it was last season then a couple of extra wins could be the difference between them scraping into the Play-In Tournament, and finishing in the top six and earning an automatic spot, but even if they do just make it to the Play-In Tournament they will be a chance in any game that they play in. With two All-Star caliber players in Fox and Sabonis as well as plenty of other very capable ones, this is a really solid team that is a chance of winning most games that they play. Most likely they will end the season right around the edge of the playoff spots, but with their odds superior to many of the teams they will likely be competing for those spots with, they are a decent value bet.

What brings them here? The Kings have been a winning team for the past couple of seasons after over a decade of mediocrity, and with Fox and Sabonis joined by DeRozan in the off-season they should once again go close to winning 50 games.

What could hold them back? The Kings are pretty well-rounded and worst case should win 40 games plus pretty easily, but the pure fact that there are so many good teams in the West could ultimately be what stops them from playing in the postseason.

Injury report. DeMar DeRozan has had to be managed a little with a lower back injury, but it isn’t anything expected, at this stage, to keep him out for any sort of extended period of time.

Bet on the Kings to make the playoffs @ $2.10 with PlayUp

New Orleans Pelicans

A bit of a jump here, from two teams in the West expected to be right around the mark to one which is a massive long shot to make the postseason. But this is based on the ceiling of the Pelicans, which is really, really high. Unfortunately for them, they have been absolutely decimated by injuries this season, to the point where it has been virtually impossible for them to compete. Their starting five is excellent; Dejounte Murray, CJ McCollum, Herb Jones, Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson are all really good players, as is Trey Murphy III off the bench. Unfortunately, they have all missed a number of games this season, with each of Murray, McCollum, Williamson and Jones barely playing. With the majority of their litany of really good players absent, they have unsurprisingly been a shadow of the team that they are capable of being, and at the time of writing find themselves dead last in the Western Conference having won just four of their first 19 games. Given how many wins are going to be needed to make the playoffs in the West, they are seriously up against it and their odds are justified in that sense, but this is a team which, when fit and healthy, could compete with nearly everyone in the league. That may not happen all season, but they are beginning to get some of the cavalry back. Ingram has been pretty much the healthiest of their starters all season but has missed a few, but his injury is only short-term, while Trey Murphy is also returning to the fray, and so too are CJ McCollum and Dejounte Murray. Herb Jones remains out but is close to a return, so really it’s just Williamson who appears set to remain out for the long term. Of course, with everyone coming back from injury, many of them reasonably long term, they won’t be firing on all cylinders straight out of the gates, but even with those players working their way back into things this will be a much more competitive. Once they do start to get a bit of continuity they could easily be winning a lot more games than they are losing, and if everything goes well could put themselves in the mix to make the Play-In game, and certainly shorten significantly from the long odds currently on offer for them to make the playoffs.

What brings them here? The Pelicans have a roster which is clearly good enough to make the playoffs and probably go deep into them, but injuries mean they have a huge amount of work to do to get back into the mix.

What could hold them back? Unsurprisingly, injuries are the clear answer here. The Pelicans simply can’t be competitive with the amount of injuries that they have had, but if they can get some continuity things could turn around quickly.

Injury report. Where to start? As mentioned, everyone of note has been injured at one point or another, though the main concern at this point is Zion Williamson, who has no timeline for a return.

Bet on the Pelicans to make the playoffs @ $13.00 with PlayUp 

As the season wears on it can become increasingly difficult to find value in markets like these, particularly when there appears to be a clear top eight teams in the Eastern Conference. Nonetheless, it’s unlikely that the eight exact favourites in each Conference end up in the postseason, so there is value to be found somewhere. Of the above teams, one of the best value at this point in time looks like it could be the Hawks. So long a mediocre team, they do have scope to improve now and if Johnson continues to play at such a high level and the likes of Risacher and Daniels get even better, this could be a solid team come playoff time. At worst they should be right in the mix for the Play-In Tournament in what is clearly the weaker Conference, and if things are humming for them at that time of year and they can tighten up their defence, they could easily find their way into the postseason.