NRL 2024 Preliminary Finals – Betting tips & Predictions

The final four of the 2024 NRL season is set, and lo and behold, it’s the top four from the regular season who will make up the two Preliminary Finals. So often that is the case – the teams coming off Elimination Final wins appear to have their tails up while those that lost their Qualifying Final look vulnerable, but generally there is a reason they earned the double chance and that was once again the case last weekend. The Sharks and the Roosters both won relatively comfortably – albeit the former with a bit of a second-half scare – setting up two tantalising Preliminary Finals as they attempt to knock off the runaway Premiership favourites in the Panthers and the Storm. Take a look at our previews of both of those games below.

As most expected, the Storm will kick off Preliminary Final weekend by hosting the Roosters in what, at least on face value, looks likely to be the tighter of the two games this weekend. The Storm will, of course, deservedly enter the game as favourites. They have barely put a foot wrong all year, having set up shop at the top of the ladder a couple of months into the season and never relinquishing that spot. And come the first week of the finals, they did exactly what they needed to do, pumping the Sharks to the tune of 27 points to ensure the potential for a path through to the Grand Final without having to leave AAMI Park. And that is a big advantage, given that they have lost just two games at home all season long. It was just a few weeks ago that the Roosters had a crack at them down in Melbourne, but they fell well short that time, going down by 18 points.

But as the Roosters have shown all year, they are a very dangerous team when they are on, and that’s exactly what they were last weekend. After a really disappointing showing in their Qualifying Final against the Panthers, they showed that they are still a hell of a long way ahead of most teams in the league. Against a Sea Eagles side in some solid form, they opened up a 20-4 lead at the half-time break, and were able to extend that even further to ultimately run out 40-16 winners. They have put in two very different performances so far this finals series and clearly, if they play like they did against the Panthers a fortnight ago the Roosters are no chance. If they can carry through the form they displayed against the Sea Eagles last weekend, however, they are more than capable of making a game of this one.

To win it, however, they will have to overturn a pretty significant trend. The history between these two teams in recent years does not read particularly well for the Roosters, for whom wins against the Storm over the past five seasons have been exceedingly rare. The Roosters managed to beat the Storm two out of the three times they played back in 2019, most memorably in that year’s Preliminary Final, but since then things have not gone so well for them. The two sides have met on 11 occasions since, and the Roosters have managed just a solitary win in that time, with the Storm’s average winning margin in those games 15.1 points.

Of course, history is just that and there were obviously plenty of differences between the teams that met five years ago and those that will go head to head this Friday, but while it won’t be the main determinant in the game’s outcome, it will undoubtedly give the Storm some sort of a mental edge that they may not even need regardless. The Roosters best footy this year has arguably been as good as any, but there is no denying the fact that while they have been able to do it against most teams in the league, the absolute cream of the crop have been a different story. Coming into the finals, they had a 0-4 record against their fellow top four teams, and that trend continued in week one of the finals when they were comprehensively outclassed by the Panthers. The Roosters are the kind of team which will pounce on any weaknesses they can find in the opposition, and they have been terrific at doing that all year. Unfortunately for them, the Storm don’t have any. The most well-drilled side in the league, the Storm are fit and firing, playing as well as they have all year, and have appeared primed for another Grand Final appearance for months now. They will need to play well against a dangerous Roosters outfit, but it’s hard to go past them making their way into yet another Grand Final.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Storm to win	$1.30
	Storm 1-12	$3.00
	Over 45.5 total match points	$1.88

Predicted Squads

Melbourne Storm: 1. Ryan Papenhuyzen 2. Will Warbrick 3. Jack Howarth 4. Nick Meaney 5. Xavier Coates 6. Cameron Munster 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Nelson Asofa-Solomona 9. Harry Grant 10. Josh King 11. Shawn Blore 12. Eli Katoa 13. Trent Loiero 14. Tyran Wishart 15. Christian Welch 16. Tui Kamikamica 17. Alec MacDonald

Sydney Roosters: 1. James Tedesco 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Joseph Suaalii 4. Joey Manu 5. Dom Young 6. Luke Keary 7. Sandon Smith 8. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves 9. Connor Watson 10. Lindsay Collins 11. Angus Crichton 12. Sitili Tupouniua 23. Victor Radley 14. Naufahu Whyte 15. Spencer Leniu 16. Nat Butcher 17. Terrell May

The Panthers have been chasing history all year, looking to become the first team in 60 years to win four consecutive Premierships, and they are just two wins away from doing just that. They have been solid all year long – using the term ‘solid’ to describe a team is probably a good indication of just how high expectations around this team are – but they always have another gear to go to come finals, and that is exactly what they did in their first. They made the 3rd-placed Roosters look like a bottom four team early, opening up an unassailable lead within 20 minutes with four early tries. They didn’t extend the lead beyond that but they didn’t need to, doing enough to hold on for a very comfortable win to book a home Preliminary Final. Whether it was the Sharks or the Cowboys they were always going to go in as big favourites, and while that will be the case, the Sharks did play very well in the first half last weekend.

Up against a Cowboys team playing its best footy for the year, the semi-final did not look like being easy for the Sharks, but you wouldn’t know it from the way they played in the first half. After losing the second half against the Storm by 23 points the week prior, the Sharks went one better than that in the first against the Cowboys, scoring four tries and converting them all to go into the break with a 24-0 lead. A Valentine Holmes try in the first minute of the second half set the scene for a Cowboys comeback, and while they did close the gap significantly, they never got within a single score of the Sharks, who ultimately ended up 26-18 winners. It wasn’t the most convincing of second halves, but they did the damage that they needed to do in the first. They’ve had two good halves and two bad ones so far this finals series, and if they are to get anywhere near the Panthers they cannot afford even ten bad minutes, let alone 40 of them.

But if the Storm have a good record against the Roosters, then I don’t know what to call that of the Panthers against the Sharks. They don’t have quite the same length of dominance, with their run being seven wins from the last eight games between the two teams, but the severity of those defeats is actually hard to believe. The Panthers’ average winning margin in those games is a remarkable 27.43 points. The Sharks have not scored in either of the last two games between the teams while the Panthers amassed 70 points, while a couple of years prior the Panthers also beat them 48-0. Add in 38-12 and a 56-24 defeats in the games prior, and you have an incredible period of dominance for the Panthers. What’s more, the solitary Sharks’ win in that time came by just a point, so it could very easily be eight in a row for Penrith.

Of course, as is the case with the Storm and the Roosters, history is just that, but those results make for a compelling case for the Panthers. Not all of them are relevant, but it was earlier this year that the Panthers beat the Sharks 42-0 – and that came after the Sharks had earned two of their best wins of the season, beating the Storm and the Roosters in successive weeks. That is anything but irrelevant, but regardless of the history between these two sides, the most compelling case for the Panthers is the fact that they are just incredibly damn good. They might not have all of their stars from years past, but they still have more than enough on the park to be the best team in the league on any given night, and have the aura of inexorability that invariably comes with winning three consecutive flags to boot. They are going to be incredibly hard to stop from winning a fourth in a row, and the Sharks have the unenviable task of being next in line to try to stop them. If the Sharks can play like they have in their two first halves this finals series then perhaps they can be competitive, but it’s hard to imagine the Panthers failing to make their fifth consecutive Grand Final.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Panthers to win	$1.25
	Panthers -11.5	$1.85
	Panthers 13+	$2.10

Predicted Squads

Penrith Panthers: 1. Dylan Edwards 2. Sunia Turuva 3. Izack Tago 4. Paul Alamoti 5. Brian To'o 6. Jarome Luai 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Moses Leota 9. Mitch Kenny 10. James Fisher-Harris 11. Scott Sorensen 12. Liam Martin 13. Isaah Yeo 14. Trent Toelau 15. Lindsay Smith 16. Liam Henry 17. Luke Garner

Cronulla Sharks: 1. Will Kennedy 2. Sione Katoa 3. Jesse Ramien 4. Kayal Iro 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo 6. Braydon Trindall 7. Nicho Hynes 8. Toby Rudolf 9. Blayke Brailey 10. Oregon Kaufusi 11. Briton Nikora 12. Teig Wilton 13. Cameron McInnes 14. Sifa Talakai 15. Jack Williams 16. Royce Hunt 17. Thomas Hazelton

• The Storm have won ten of their past 11 games against the Roosters.
• The Panthers have won seven of their last eight against the Sharks by an average of nearly 30 points, and have a 70-0 record over them in their last two games.
• Six of the last eight games involving the Roosters, and each of the Storm’s last five games have seen at least 46 points scored. The line for their matchup on Friday is 45.5.

Multi of the Week

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