AFL 2024 Preliminary Finals – Betting Tips, Odds & Predictions

What a weekend of footy that was. After a relatively uninspiring first weekend of the AFL finals, semi-final weekend more than made up for it with two games that came down to the wire. It began with the Power holding off the red-hot Hawks by under a goal for the second time this season, before the Giants suffered a second extraordinary fourth quarter capitulation in as many weeks, this time at the hands of the rampant Lions. That sets up a couple of mouth-watering Preliminary Finals, kicking off when the Swans host the Power on Friday night, before the Lions head to the MCG to take on the Cats on Saturday evening for a spot in the Grand Final. Take a look at our detailed previews of both of those games below.

The Preliminary Finals kick off with a clash between the teams that occupied the top two spots on the AFL ladder at the end of the home and away season, but who have taken opposing paths to get to this position over the past couple of weeks. The Swans have enjoyed a week off after knocking off their cross-town rivals in the Giants in their Qualifying Final, though they certainly did not have things all their own way in that game. As did the Lions last week, Sydney appeared destined to be swept away by the orange tsunami, finding themselves 27 points in arrears just prior to the three-quarter time siren. But they stormed home with the last three goals of the game, two of them coming after the 28-minute mark, to snatch a memorable six-point victory, sending them straight to a Preliminary Final which they seemed destined to host for much of the season. Isaac Heeney was completely dominant in that game, grabbing 30 touches, kicking three goals (including one which tied up the match), and taking perhaps the mark of the year, while Chad Warner was also unstoppable in the final quarter. The Swans are not as far ahead of the chasing pack as they were in the first half of the season, but they are still pretty damn good.

The Power, meanwhile, have had a far more difficult run to get to this game. If you’d heard they would score 81 points less than their opposition over the first two weeks of the finals and boast a percentage of just 61. 4% across those two games, it would have been a pretty safe bet that they had been booted in straight sets. Of course, they were not, and courtesy of a thrilling win over the Hawks – something only a couple of other teams have managed since Round 7 – they have booked their spot in the final four. The Power’s 84-point Qualifying Final loss to the Cats was nothing short of a disaster, and they entered their semi against the Hawks as a reasonably comfortable outsider despite having finished 2nd on the ladder (Hawthorn finished 7th) and playing it at home. As it turned out the Hawks could very easily have won that game, but a James Sicily poster in the dying minutes saw the Power cling on by three points. It’s been a strange old season for the Power, who have at various points been genuine Premiership contenders, and under enormous scrutiny. But now having booked their spot in the Preliminary Final, they have well and truly settled into the former category.

Beating the Swans in Sydney, however, will be very, very difficult. Of course, it was only a few short weeks ago that the Power put in one of the most remarkable performances of the year against Sydney, scoring the first 71 points of the game and ultimately running out 112-point winners. That was the right at the start of Sydney’s slump, but with four wins on the trot entering this game they have certainly gone a long way towards arresting that slide, which came after they had all but sewn up top spot a long way out from the finals and had seemingly little to play for. The opposite is true in this one, with a Grand Final berth against either the Lions or Cats the reward for the winner. Unfortunately, the Swans will have to do it without Callum Mills, the skipper having suffered a hamstring injury at training last week, though he has not exactly been at his best of late and they have more than enough talent to cover him.

Neither of these sides boasts dominant key forwards, but what they do both have is oodles of ability in the midfield. For the Swans, Isaac Heeney, Chad Warner and Errol Gulden make up perhaps the most frightening trio in the league, each of them with bonafide match-winning ability. But Zak Butters, Connor Rozee and Jason Horne-Francis is one of the few trios who can match them on raw talent. Add in the likes of James Rowbottom, Ollie Wines, Willem Drew, and there are plenty of able grunt workers in both midfields to help out those triumvirates. As is so often the case, which team can win that midfield battle will be well-placed to win the match. The Power’s mids bounced back last week after a poor showing in their Qualifying Final, and they deserve plenty of credit for beating a Hawthorn team which has realistically been as good as anyone this year. But the Swans have appeared headed for a Grand Final all year. They are very, very hard to beat at the best of times, and with a spot in the big dance up for grabs on their home deck, the team that has spent the whole season on top of the ladder can get the job done by a few goals.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Swans to win	$1.35
	Jase Burgoyne to have 20+ touches	$1.85
	Swans 1-39	$2.20

Predicted Squads

Sydney Swans: B: D. Rampe, T. McCartin, N. Blakey HB: J. Lloyd, H. Cunningham, O. Florent C: J. McInerney, Ch. Warner, E. Gulden HF: L. Parker, H. McLean, L. McDonald F: T. Papley, J. Amartey, W. Hayward FOLL: B. Grundy, I. Heeney, J. Rowbottom I/C: L. Melican, B. Campbell, M. Roberts, R. Fox, J. Jordon EMG: T. Adams, C. Cleary, P. Ladhams

Port Adelaide Power: B: La. Jones, B. Zerk-Thatcher, M. Bergman HB: J. Sinn, A. Aliir, L. Evans C: J. Burgoyne, O. Wines, W. Drew HF: D. Byrne-Jones, E. Ratugolea, W. Rioli F: M. Georgiades, C. Dixon, C. Rozee - C FOLL: J. Sweet, J. Horne-Francis, Z. Butters I/C: T. Boak, Q. Narkle, J. Mead, F. Evans, J. McEntee EMG: W. Lorenz, D. Visentini, D. Williams

The Cats just keep on making it through to the Preliminary Finals. In an incredibly tight season, they just snuck into the top four in a cluster of teams which finished with 15 wins – half a game ahead of the Lions in 5th. And they more than capitalised on the double chance. They were underdogs heading to Adelaide to take on the Power, but put in their best performance of the season against a hapless opposition. Even the most one-eyed of Geelong supporters could not possibly have predicted the absolute demolition which came in that Qualifying Final, with the Cats dismantling the home team to ultimately win by 84 points. Of course, as successful as the Cats have been over the past decade and a half, they have made it through to the Preliminary Finals but no further on plenty of occasions, and will be desperate to avoid another instance of that this weekend.

But even on their home turf they will have to play extremely well against a Lions side which will have their collective tails high in the air after their extraordinary semi-final win. The Lions really should have finished top four after charging home through the back half of the season, but a one-point loss to the Magpies in Round 23 ultimately ended up costing them and forced them to go the long way round in the finals. That was no problem in their Elimination Final, when they beat the Blues relatively easily at home, but last weekend was a little different. Forced to go to Sydney to take on a Giants’ team reeling after snatching defeat from the jaws of victory the week prior against the Swans, the Lions’ season looked finished late in the third when they went down by 44 points halfway through the third quarter. But an incredible patch late in that quarter which saw them boot five goals in just a handful of minutes – needing just 18 kicks to do it – set the foundation for a final quarter comeback that they would not have managed without Joe Daniher. The Lions were still two goals in arrears with just a few minutes to go, before Daniher was awarded a free kick for deliberate out of bounds 45 out from goal. On his wrong side, the oft-maligned forwarded slotted a brilliant goal. Two minutes later, he outmarked arguably the best one on one defender in the game in Sam Taylor and kicked truly to give the Lions a lead they wouldn’t relinquish, and a spot in the Preliminary Finals.

Which leaves us with an intriguing clash between a side which are no strangers to Premiership contention. But while the Cats have spent an inordinate amount of time towards the top of the ladder for an extended period of time now, they are a very different team to what they have been in the past, with their ability to transform their side without spending too much time, if any, outside the top eight, unparallelled. Now, names like Max Holmes, Tyson Stengle and Zach Guthrie play pivotal roles in what they do, though there are more than a few old hands still leading the charge, none less so than Jeremy Cameron and Tom Stewart – who will return this weekend – while Patrick Dangerfield remains a finals wildcard even well past his prime. The Lions, meanwhile, are a younger team than what their consistent presence at the top of the ladder for the past five or six years would suggest, but they have been largely stable over the past few seasons. Some change to last year’s Grand Final sides have been forced upon them due to a raft of ACL injuries, but this is still a team led in the midfield by Lachie Neale, Josh Dunkley and Hugh McLuggage, while key pillars at either end of the field in Harris Andrews and Daniher both also play pivotal roles.

When these two teams played earlier this year, the Cats won a scrappy affair 63-37 – though with the Lions kicking 4. 13 that scoreline probably didn’t reflect how the game was played. That was an away win for Geelong, but by and large results between these two teams have gone the way of the home side. Prior to that game earlier this year, five in a row and eight of the last nine matchups between these teams had been won by the home team, the sole exception in that time coming, incidentally, in the 2020 Preliminary Final. That time around it was Geelong who got the chocolates at the Gabba, but can the Lions mirror that result four years later? They would be bucking a serious trend if they do, having not beaten the Cats in Victoria since – wait for it – 2003! But if ever there was an opportunity for them to do it, this is it. The Cats were simply unstoppable against the Power two weeks ago, but they certainly won’t have things as easy this Saturday. Had the Lions snuck into the top four, as they probably should have, they would have been many people’s pick for the Premiership, and though they were comprehensively beaten for large parts of last weekend’s game against the Giants, the way they flew home would have given this talented team oodles of confidence. Brisbane have unfinished business after last year’s Grand Final defeat to the Magpies, and they can sneak through to a second in a row with a thrilling win over the Cats.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Lions to win	$2.10
	Lions 1-39	$2.75
	Lions 1-24	$3.70

Predicted Squads

Geelong Cats: B: L. Humphries, J. Henry, J. Kolodjashnij HB: M. Duncan, M. Blicavs, Z. Guthrie C: M. Holmes, T. Stewart, O. Dempsey HF: T. Stengle, S. Neale, S. Mannagh F: B. Close, J. Cameron, O. Henry FOLL: R. Stanley, P. Dangerfield - C, T. Bruhn I/C: Z. Tuohy, J. Bowes, G. Miers, T. Atkins, J. Bews EMG: G. Rohan, S. De Koning, O. Mullin

Brisbane Lions: B: D. Zorko, H. Andrews, C. McKenna HB: D. Wilmot, J. Payne, R. Lester C: J. Fletcher, W. Ashcroft, H. McCluggage HF: C. Rayner, J. Daniher, J. Berry F: C. Cameron, E. Hipwood, Z. Bailey FOLL: O. McInerney, J. Dunkley, L. Neale - C I/C: K. Lohmann, C. Ah Chee, L. Morris, B. Starcevich, N. Answerth EMG: H. Sharp, D. Fort, D. Joyce

• The Swans have a 9-2 record at home this year.
• Though two of them came relatively recently, the Lions have suffered only three defeats in their last 18 games.
• Jase Burgoyne has been a great find for the Power this year and has been in strong ball-winning form of late, picking up 20 or more touches in six of his last eight games – including 25 in last week’s semi against the Hawks.

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