AFLW 2024 Preliminary Finals – Betting Tips, Odds & Predictions

Just four teams remain in the hunt for the 2024 AFLW Premiership. Three of them were widely expected to be there, but the Power are a surprise packet after a season of significant improvement and a thrilling win over the Hawks last weekend. But they join the Kangaroos, Lions and Crows as the clear outsider, those teams having each finished inside the top four with percentages in excess of 170% each – and in North Melbourne’s case, in excess of 300%. It’s those dominant Roos who the Power will take on in the first Preliminary Final, set for Saturday afternoon, while that night the Lions host the Crows for the second spot in the big dance. Take a look at our detailed previews of both games below.

The Kangaroos are still yet to be defeated in season 2024 and have long been the clear team to beat in the race for the Premiership, and without wanting to denigrate their opposition, they could hardly be better placed to make their way into the Grand Final. The Kangaroos have won the majority of their games this season by big margins – just three of them in the home and away season being decided by under six goals.

They were, however, challenged in their opening final, needing the full four quarters to dispose of a very, very good Adelaide side. But as they have in every single game this season – with the exception of their Round 2 draw against the Cats – the Kangaroos pulled away when it mattered most to win by seven points. It could have been more, too, with the Crows booting 5.1 to the Kangaroos’ 5.8. And those six scoring shots are far from an anomaly; North Melbourne conceded an average of just 18.9 points per game in the home and away season, easily the best in the league.

That means that Port Adelaide will have to be at their absolute best to put a competitive score on the board, but fortunately for them they come into this game in some really strong form, particularly in that regard. Already they have been a capable offensive team this season, but in their two finals to date they have put up a club record 72 against the Tigers, and last week 50 against the Hawks in probably the most thrilling game of the year yet.

The Power headed into that game against a Hawks team which had lost just once all season as the comfortable underdogs, and sure enough, after a tight first half the Hawks kicked away to a 22-point lead at three-quarter time that could easily be more – they led 5.12 to 3.2. With a comfortable buffer it didn’t appear likely to matter anyway, but Port Adelaide quickly went about proving that idea wrong. They came out of the blocks in the final term like a team possessed, booting four goals in a row to take the lead in the 16th minute via Abbey Dowrick’s second goal. But Kaitlyn Ashmore quickly restored the lead that Hawthorn had held for most of the game, before a rushed behind to the Power levelled the scores in the 21st minute. No more goals would be kicked for the rest of the game, but a Sachi Syme behind proved the difference, giving the Power a 7.8.50 to 6.13.49 lead which they held onto until the final siren sounded.

It was an extraordinary win, both demonstrating what the Power are capable and giving them a huge dose of momentum heading into the toughest matchup in the AFLW. But as big as that wave of momentum might be, they will still have their work cut out against the Roos. These two teams have played once this year and the Power actually got closer than all but three other sides have all season, but it’s indicative of the Kangaroos’ dominance that that was still a 42-6 win – the Power managing just a solitary scoring shot in that game.

There is no denying that Port Adelaide have improved as the season has worn on, and heading into this game they have now won eight games in row. But North Melbourne is simply on another level. They are a short-priced favourite to win this game and it’s easy to see why, and as impressive as the Power’s year has been, it seems likely that their extended winning streak will come to an end this Saturday afternoon, and with it, their season.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Kangaroos 25+	$1.77
	Kangaroos -26.5	$1.91
	Kangaroos 16+	$1.42

Predicted Squads

North Melbourne Kangaroos: FB: L. Birch, J. Ferguson HB: N. Bresnehan, E. Shannon, S. Wright C: T. Gatt, J. Garner, T. Craven HF: B. Eddey, J. Bruton, V. Wall FF: T. Randall, K. Shierlaw Fol: E. King, M. King, A. Riddell IC: E. O’Shea, R. Tripodi, A. Smith, K. Rennie, A. O’Loughlin

Port Adelaide Power: FB: M. Brooksby, A. Borg HB: T. Germech, E. O’Dea, A. Foley C: S. Goody, M. Moloney, E. Boag HF: K. Lamb, J. Mules-Robinson, O. Levicki FF: A. Saint, G. Houghton Fol: M. Scholz, A. Dowrick, P. Window IC: J. Teakle, K. Pope, C. Wendland, C. Hammond, S. Syme

Of the two Preliminary Finals, this is clearly the one that shapes up as the best contest, with very little separating the Lions and the Crows all season long. They finished right alongside one another on the ladder, the Lions at 9-2 with a percentage of 182.4% and the Crows at 8-3 with a percentage of 173.3%.

They have already met once in 2024, back in Round 5, and sure enough it was a thriller. The Lions led that game by eight points at half-time and three points at three-quarter time, before the Crows kicked two consecutive goals to take a nine-point lead halfway through the last – only to give it up when the Lions kicked two in a row in the dying minutes. There is a good chance that this game will be every bit as exciting.

Both teams come into the game on the back of strong form, while the Lions will be particularly well-rested after enjoying a week off last week. That came courtesy of an enthralling six-point win over the Hawks in the Qualifying Finals, a result which made it 10 wins in the Lions’ last 11 matches. The week off will certainly have been welcome for Brisbane after such a hard-fought game, though the Crows were not exactly made to work too hard for their spot in the Preliminary Finals last weekend.

Adelaide very nearly made it straight through to the prelims after taking it right to the Kangaroos for the second time in three weeks, but as they did the first time, they fell painfully short, losing 38-31 to the best team in the business. But the gap between the top four and the rest (excluding Port Adelaide, it seems) was apparent the following week when the Crows hosted the Dockers. Fremantle have been a solid albeit unspectacular team all season long, but they were no match for Adelaide last weekend. It took nearly 18 minutes for the first goal to be scored, but when it did the floodgates opened, with the Crows booting that one and then five in the second quarter to take a 33-4 lead into the long break. By game’s end they had extended that margin to 37 points, and a relatively cruisy second half – at least as far as semi-finals go – will have been welcome given they now head into a game against the rested Lions.

As the previous matchup between these two sides showed, there is very, very little separating them. Adelaide has not lost a game by more than eight points all year, having been defeated by eight and seven points by the Kangaroos, and two points by both the Demons and Lions. Brisbane, meanwhile, were pumped by 44 points in Round 1 against the Roos, and since then have lost just a solitary game – that by ten points to the Cats a month ago. Though they both finished behind Hawthorn, these two have all season long looked like the best hopes of knocking the Roos off their perch, and nothing has changed now. Most likely, the reward for the winner of this game will be a clash against the Roos, and to be perfectly honest it’s damn hard to predict which team that will be.

The Crows having to travel to Brisbane while the Lions have enjoyed the comfort of their own beds for two weeks could very well prove to be the difference in what should be an enthralling game. It’s hard to see either side winning by more than a kick or two, but on their home turf, Brisbane might just be able to give themselves a chance of winning their second consecutive flag.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Lions to win	$1.70
	Lions to win	$3.15
	Lions 1-24	$2.50

Predicted Squads

Brisbane Lions: FB: J. Dunne, P. Boltz HB: N. Grider, B. Koenen, J. Ellenger C: O. O’Dwyer, A. Anderson, C. Mullins HF: S. Conway, C. Hodder, L. Postlethwaite FF: T. Smith, D. Davidson Fol: T. Hickie, I. Dawes, C. Svarc IC: E. Hartill, S. Campbell, R. Svarc, E. Long, E. Hampson

Adelaide Crows: FB: Z. Prowse, C. Biddell HB: K Mueller, S. Allan, S. Goodwin C: M. Newman, A. Hatchard, N. Kelly HF: H. Munyard, D. Ponter, S. Thompson FF: C. Gould, R. Martin Fol: J. Allan, E. Marinoff, C. Randall IC: K. Kustermann, T. Levy, T. Charlton, A. Ballard, B. Tonon

• The Kangaroos have won all but four games this season by at least six goals, with two of those in which they didn’t coming against the Crows.
• Since losing their opening game of the season against the Kangaroos, the Lions have won four in a row in Queensland by an average of over 46 points.
• Cathy Svarc has booted at least one goal in each of her last three games, and kicked two in the Lions’ Qualifying Final win.

Multi of the Week

AFLW tips and predictions like the above come out each and every week during the season at BettingTop10, but they are far from all that we have to offer. We also dish out similar pieces about both the AFL and the NRL throughout the entirety of both of those seasons, while when the NBA season rolls around we provide helpful betting tips throughout that season too, consisting of two pieces during the week and one for each weekend. What’s more, if you’re after season long tips, check out our futures pages, which we update regularly for each of the AFL, NRL and AFLW.

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So whatever it is that you need, if it’s related to sports betting in any way shape or form, then we have got you covered.

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