AFLW 2024 Round 1 – Betting Tips, Odds & Predictions

The ninth season of the AFLW is set to get underway this weekend, kicking off a 10-round season which will culminate in the Grand Final on the 30th of November. Perennial contenders Brisbane will enter the season as Premiership favourite as they attempt to win their second consecutive flag and their third in five seasons, but there is little separating a lot of teams at the top, with the Kangaroos, Crows, Demons and Cats all widely expected to contend as well. The season kicks off with a Friday night double-header which begins with the Swans hosting the Magpies before the Tigers head to Perth to take on the Eagles, and below, we have previewed those and the other seven games set to take place over the course of Round 1. 

Life in the AFLW didn’t start particularly positive for the Swans, who went winless in their inaugural season in the league in 2022. Last year, however, they put in a much more positive showing, going 6-4 to sneak into the finals, and though their season was ended ignominiously by the Crows in the semis, they did win their first ever final the week prior when they knocked off the Gold Coast Suns. They enter this season hoping to make it two finals series in two years, but they are locked in amongst a raft of teams expected to be battling it out for spots in the lower half of the eight. 
 
The Magpies are another of those teams. They have been a consistent finals team since joining the competition but last year fell to 11th after a few important departures. The result of that disappointing season was a change in coach, with Sam Wright taking the reins this year – and what an intriguing task he has ahead of him. The Magpies have plenty of talent at the top-end, but there are a hell of a lot of unknowns about this team and the difference between their best and worst case this year is significant. They are likely to be a tough team to pick, but a talented midfield could see them cause a couple of upsets throughout the season. At decent odds, they could be a good outsider to start the season. 

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Magpies to win	$2.40
	Magpies +7.5	$1.90
	Magpies 1-39	$2.60

Predicted Teams

Sydney Swans: FB: G. Davies, B. Tarrant HB: A. Mitchell, E. Heads, L. McEvoy C: M. Ham, T. Kennedy, M. Collier HF: B. Lochland, R. Privitelli, C. Hamilton FF: M. Beruldsen, S. Hurley Fol: A. Morphett, L. Gardiner, C. Molloy IC: K. Hillier, S. Grunden, H. Bullas, E. Vale, L. Szigeti EMG: L. Hausegger, B. R. Smith, A. Whelan 

Collingwood Magpies: FB: M. Atkinson, S. Livingstone HB: A. Lee, R. Schleicher, J. Allen C: T. White, M. Cann, S. Rowe HF: E. James, S. Sansonetti, G. Campbell FF: E. Fowler, A. Porter Fol: S. Frederick, B. Bonnici., C. Remmos IC: L. Brazzale, L. Cronin, I. Evans, I. Barnett, C. Blair EMG: E. Morris, S. Karlson, A. Schutte 

It’s been a tough few years for the Eagles AFLW team since joining the competition in 2021. Since then they have won just seven games in four seasons, never surpassing two in a single season. And unfortunately, this season does not shape up as being all that much more successful. The Eagles find themselves right down the bottom in the Premiership betting markets alongside the Giants and Bulldogs, and look likely to have a tough time in their opening round clash against a Tigers team looking to bounce back from a disappointing 2023 season.

The Tiges entered that year flying high after a top four finish the season prior, but they were unable to replicate that effort. A number of long-term injuries certainly did not help, but with those players back this season they will be hoping to jump right back into the top eight. Led by reigning league best and fairest winner Monique Conti, the Tigers have a balanced mix of experience and youth and the potential to play finals. A win against the Eagles is a must in Round 1, and they should be able to do exactly that as they look to bounce back from last year’s disappointment.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Tigers to win	$1.17
	Tigers -21.5	$1.90
	Tigers 40+	$3.80

Predicted Teams

West Coast Eagles: FB: Z. Wakfer, B. Schilling HB: C. Thomas, J. Rentsch, B. Smith C: S. Goranova, I. Lewis, J. Britton HF: S. Bakker, K. Gibson, M. Western FF: E. Roberts, A. Franklin Fol: L. Wakfer, J. Hosking, A. Drennan IC: E. Gooch, A. Bushby, G. Cleaver, V. Simmons, T. Lyons EMG: M. Webb, J., Harken, S. Lakay

Richmond Tigers: FB: G. Seymour, R. Miller HB: B. Lynch, L. McClelland, L. Graham C: M. Shevlin, A. Dallaway, K. Dempsey HF: C. Ryan, K. Brennan, C. Jones FF: C. Greiser, E. Yassir Fol: P. Kelly, G. Egan, M. Conti IC: J. Woods, S. Reid, M. Eastman, J. Hicks, E. McKenzie EMG: C. Wicksteed, I. Brown, A. Peck

Saturday’s first game may well be tight, but it isn’t exactly a clash of the titans. The Giants and the Bulldogs have relatively similar expectations on their shoulder this year, and they are not particularly lofty ones. Each of them is tipped to finish towards the bottom of the ladder, and given their performances last year it’s easy to see why. The Giants won just two games last year, finishing ahead of only two teams on the AFLW ladder – one of those being the Bulldogs.

The year wasn’t much fun for the Bulldogs, who lost their first eight games before finally getting what would prove to be their solitary win for the season on the board in Round 9 when they knocked off the Eagles by eight points. That was a huge drop off for a team that won seven games the year prior, but unfortunately for them the expectation is that their 2024 season will much more closely resemble last year’s effort than that of the season prior. Neither of these teams is likely to be competing for a spot in the finals, but a loss to a fellow cellar dweller would put their backs even further against the wall very quickly. In a low-scoring affair, the home ground advantage might see the Giants sneak over the line.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Giants to win	$1.63
	Giants -4.5	$1.90
	Giants 1-39	$1.80

Predicted Teams

Greater Western Sydney Giants: FB: P. Randall, K. Smith HB: T. Evans, C. McCormick, E. Pease C: A. Eva, N. Barr, M. Brazendale HF: G. Garnett, H. Zreika, I. Huntington FF: J. Doyle, Z. Goldsworthy Fol: E. O’Dowd, R. Beeson, A. Parker IC: J. Grierson, M. Gaffney, C. Ransom, K. Srhoj, M. Pauga EMG: C. Murpy, C. Miller, A. Newman

Western Bulldogs: FB: L. Ahrens, I. Grant HB: J. Fitzgerald, C. Buttifant, E. Georgostathis C: M. Gorham, D. Carruthers, R. Wilcox HF: K. Weston-Turner, J. Smith, D. Berry FF: S. Hartwig, A. McKee Fol: A. Edmonds, E. Blackburn, I. Pritchard IC: J. Borg, B. Barwick, E. Grigg, B. Gutknecht, E. Gavalas EMG: H. Woodely, B. McFarlane, Z. Farquharson

• The Eagles were prone to big losses last year, losing three games by 53 points or more
• The Crows won seven of their ten home and away games last year by at least 26 points
• Though the Saints missed the finals last year, they did win six of their last seven games

Multi of the Week

This is an intriguing game between two teams that could easily be vying for similar spots in the bottom half of the top eight come season’s end. The Bombers, of course, took a big step forward in their second season in the AFLW, going 6-4 last year to sneak into finals on percentage. Unfortunately they couldn’t make it beyond the first week, losing by three goals to the Cats, but nonetheless it was a big step forward for the red and black and they will be looking to use that as a platform to win their first final in AFLW history this season.

The Dockers, meanwhile, had another disappointing season last year, but with injuries having once again played a key role in that they will be hoping that this will be a season in which they can bounce back strongly. They have also undergone a number of significant changes in the off-season, bringing in plenty of talent but equally losing a fair chunk of their players, making them something of an unknown this season. A win against a decent side on the road in Round 1 would be a great way to start the season, but with so many changes having taken place it would be no surprise to see the Dockers take a little while to find their feet. In a tight game, the Bombers can claim their first victory of the season in this one.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Bombers to win	$1.47
	Dockers +8.5	$1.90
	Bombers 1-39	$1.70

Predicted Teams

Essendon Bombers: FB: E. Gamble, G. Clarke HB: A. Morcom, M. Gay, E. Gough C: E. Keaney, M. Prespakis, S. Alexander HF: A. Clarke, G. Gee, A. Gaylor FF: B. Toogood, A. Radford Fol: S. Wales, S. Cain, D. Bannister IC: G. Nanscawen, S. Van De Heuvel, M. Dyke, B. Walker, K. Jacques EMG: J. Vogt, L. Williamson, A. Van Loon

Fremantle Dockers: FB: J. Flynn, E. O’Driscoll HB: A. Brazill, G. O’Sullivan, M. Scanlon C: J. Low, H. Miller, E. Antonio HF: G. Newton, P. Seth, L. Pugh FF: A. Tighe, A. Runnalls Fol: M. Strom, A. McCarthy, D. East IC: A. Mulholland, M. Kauffman, O. Lally, J. Cregg, T. Kikoak EMG: A. Hetherington, M. Tuhakaraina, T. Mulder

The Suns spent plenty of years almost but not quite making the finals, but last year they finally took that next step, and with a 6-1-3 record, managed to finish in 5th spot – and only half a game outside of the top four. Unfortunately, they were unable to capitalise on that home ground advantage in their Elimination Final, and were promptly booted from the finals in the first week by the Swans. But they have continued to develop their list over this past season, and now, having taken a step forward last year, could potentially be ready to take another one this year. A win over the Saints would be a great place to start.

The Saints, meanwhile, finished down in 9th spot, but they were separated from the Suns by just half a game and would have taken plenty of heart out of the way that they finished the season. After starting 0-3, the Saints won six of their last seven games to end the season at 6-4, but as a testament to just how little margin for error there is in such a short season, they still fell just shy of a finals berth. If they can play like they did over the back half of that season this year, however, then they are a great chance of making their way into the finals in 2024. This should be an enthralling game between two teams that are very much in the mix to play finals this year, and at decent odds the Saints can cause an upset to kick off their year in much better fashion than what they did in 2023.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Saints to win	$2.41
	Saints +6.5	$1.90
	Saints 1-39	$2.50

Predicted Teams

Gold Coast Suns: FB: W. Randell, C. Wilson HB: K. Bischa, K. Lynch, C. Fitzpatrick C: E. K. Smith, C. Whitfort, E. Barwick HF: A.. Kievit, J. Stanton, D. Davies FF: T. Bohanna, J. Dupuy Fol: L. Bella, C. Rowbottom, D. D’Arcy IC: E. Maurer, N. McLaughlin, L. Single, G. Clayden, J. Membrey EMG: C. McCrossan, K. Fullerton, T. Oliver

St. Kilda Saints: FB: N. Stevens, S. Watson HB: H. Priest, P. Trudgeon, B. Jakobsson C: M. McDonald, J. Lambert, D. Guttridge HF: J. Anderson, J. Wardlaw, N. Xenos FF: R. Caris, A. Richards Fol: S. Nalder, O. Vesely, H. Stuart IC: E. Friend, G. Kelly, A. Burke, C. Simpson, T. Smith EMG: M. Boyd, N. Plane, C. Matthews

As mentioned earlier, there are five teams that appear to be sticking out from the chasing pack in the Premiership hunt this year, and this is the first game of the season that will see two of them pitted against one another. Adding further to the intrigue is that this will be a repeat of last year’s thrilling semi-final which saw the Cats ultimately work their way into the Prelim with a five-point win, sending the Demons packing in straight sets. The Cats did that from way down in 6th spot, but that finish wasn’t really reflective of their ability, as evidenced by the fact that despite a win/loss record of just 6-4, they had a percentage of 141.2% - substantially better than any other team outside the top four. They ultimately ended up less than a kick away from a Grand Final appearance, and will be looking to go one better in season 2024.

But so too will their opponents in this game. The Demons put themselves in a great position to win what would have been a second AFLW Premiership last year, losing just two games in the home and away season and ending it with a whopping percentage of 222.9%. But finals didn’t quite go to plan. They were absolutely pounded in a really disappointing Qualifying Final, going down 50-9 to the Kangaroos, before the Cats, as mentioned, snuck over the line against them the next weekend to resign the Dees to an early exit. They’ve had close to a year to mull over that disappointing end to the season, but after a solid amount of list turnover in the off-season they may well be even better this year than they were last. In what should be a tight game, they are another team that looks like good value to pick up an opening round win.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Demons to win	$2.31
	Demons +5.5	$1.90
	Demons 1-39	$2.40

Predicted Teams

Geelong Cats: FB: C. Emonson, C. Gunjaca HB: R. Webster, M. McDonald, R. Kearns C: Z. Friswell, G. Prespakis, M. Bowen HF: J. Crocket-Grills, J. Parry, K. Surman FF: A. Moloney, K. Kenny Fol: K. Darby, A. McDonald, N. Morrison IC: G. Rankin, G. Featherston, S. Scott, A. Kennedy, D. Moloney EMG: A. McDonald, B. Plummer, C. Mason

Melbourne Demons: FB: G. Colvin, T. Gillard HB: M. Chaplin, S. Heath, P. Paxman C: E. McNamara, S. Lampard, B. Mackin HF: E. Zanker, L. Mithen, T. Harris FF: A. Bannan, M. Fitzsimon Fol: L. Pearce, T. Hanks, K.Hore IC: G. Hill. R. Watt, S. Goldrick, R. Wotherspoon, G. Beasley EMG: D. Taylor, G. Campbell, G. Gall

The two Adelaide teams are at very different stages of their AFLW lives, and the results in the two Showdowns they have to this point played against one another reflect as much. In the Power’s first season, they were absolutely pummelled by their cross-town rivals, going down 63-3 in front of over 20,000 fans. Last year they were beaten comfortably again, but as they did in the season more generally, they showed a few signs that were cause for optimism en route to a 30-point loss. They will be looking to build on last year’s improvement this season, though they are still a long way down the pecking order in a tight league.

The Crows, meanwhile, have significantly loftier expectations. The most successful team in the league’s history with three Premierships, they finished on top of the ladder last year with just one loss in the home and away season. Unfortunately, a couple of devastatingly tight losses ultimately cost them their season in the finals. They went down by two points to eventual Premiers, the Lions, in the Qualifying Final, pumped the Swans in the semis, and then lost by a point to the Kangaroos the next week in the Preliminary Final. That will have stung them plenty, but this team won’t likely be budging from their position towards the top of the AFLW ladder this year, and this should be a relatively easy win for them to start their charge towards what they hope will be a fourth AFLW Premiership this year.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Crows to win	$1.10
	Crows -26.5	$1.90
	Crows 40+	$3.00

Predicted Teams

Port Adelaide Power: FB: M. Brooksby, A. Borg HB: T. Germech, E. O’Dea, J. Cuthbertson C: C. Hammond, M. Moloney, S. Goody HF: K. Lamb, J. Mules-Robinson, G. Houghton FF: A. Saint, J. Teakle Fol: M. Scholz, A. Dowrick, S. Syme IC: P. Window, A. Foley, O. Levicki, E. Boag, C. Wendland EMG: M. Keryk, K. Pope, J. Stewart

Adelaide Crows: FB: C. Biddell, Z. Prowse HB: S. Goodwin, S. Allan, K. Kustermann C: N. Kelly, A. Hatchard, S. Thompson HF: R. Martin, C. Randall, B. Boileau FF: D. Ponter, E. Jones Fol: J. Allan, E. Marinoff, T. Levy IC: B. Tonon, K. Mueller, J. Waterhouse, M. Newman, D. Varnhagen EMG: L. Tarlinton, T. Henry, B. Smith

Neither the Hawks nor the Blues managed to make all that much noise last season, both finishing comfortably outside of the top eight with just three and four wins respectively. Each of them has some scope to improve this year, in particular the Hawks. They have undergone plenty of change in the off-season, bringing through a whole lot of talent as well as a new coach, and the expectation is that will lead to an improvement on the three wins that they managed last year. In the eyes of many, they will go past the Blues this year, and a win against them in Round 1 would be a nice way to gratify those expectations.

For the Blues, there is work to be done to overcome what was a really poor end to their first season under Mathew Buck. They won four of their first six games of the season to put themselves in a great position to play finals, but four consecutive losses to round things out saw them tumble way down to 12th and two games out of the eight. Making matters worse was the nature of those losses – the second, to the Giants, was by just two points, but that aside they weren’t really in the other three games and generally looked a shadow of the team that they were in the first half of the season. If they can replicate the form they displayed earlier last year they could make a charge for the finals, but the Hawks look likely to go past them this year and can start the year off with a win against the Navy Blues.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Hawks to win	$1.40
	Hawks -10.5	$1.90
	Hawks 1-39	$1.65

Predicted Teams

Hawthorn Hawks: FB: J. Richardson, A. Kemp HB: T. Lucas-Rodd, K. Ashmore, L. Stone C: C. Sherriff, E. Bates, M. Williamson HF: G. Bodey, M. Breed, A. McDonagh FF: J. Vukic, B. Hipwell Fol: L. Wales, J. Fleming, E. West IC: B. Deed, E. Everist, C. Baskaran, H. McLaughlin, L. Elliott, T. Smith, A. Gilroy. L. Stephenson

Carlton Blues: FB: L. Beatty, H. Cordner HB: C. Fitzgerald, K, Peterson, G. Lawson-Tavan C: D. Finn, M. Guerin, D. Vescio HF: L. Keck, M. Austin, M. Hendrie FF: B. Moody, K. Skepper Fol: J. Good, M. Hill, A. McKay IC: K. Sherar, J. Dal Pos, L. Goss, Y. Duursma, C. Moody, A. Velardo, G. pound, M. Anthony

The powers that be have saved the best for last, scheduling a Grand Final rematch between the Lions and the Kangaroos for Sunday afternoon once the first eight games of Round 1 are done and dusted. That Grand Final, of course, was a thriller. Tight throughout, the Roos led by seven points heading into the final quarter, but the Lions flexed their collective muscle in the final term of the season, booting four goals while keeping their opposition scoreless to ultimately run out 17-point winners and pick up their second flag. Unsurprisingly, the Lions will head into this season as Premiership favourites having kept the majority of their best team intact.

But the Roos are unequivocally one of their biggest challengers. Last year was their first time to the Big Dance, but they are every chance of repeating that effort this year. They have had many months to dwell over that heartbreaking last quarter which ultimately kept them from achieving their inaugural Premiership, and will look to harness that heartache into ferocity on the field – something that they should not have too many problems doing against the team that so swiftly took their dream away from them last year. This should be a fantastic game and one which both sides are capable of winning, but on their home turf the Lions can sneak over the line to notch up their first of what will no doubt be many victories this season, and hand the Kangaroos what will likely be a pretty rare loss in 2024.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Lions to win	$1.47
	Kangaroos +8.5	$1.90
	Lions 1-39	$1.70

Predicted Teams

Brisbane Lions: FB: J. Dunne, S. Campbell HB: B. Koenen, N. Grider, J. Ellenger C: O. O’Dwyer, A. Anderson, S. Conway HF: L. Postelthwaite, D. Davidson, C. Mullins FF: T. Smith, C. Hodder Fol: T. Hickie, I. Dawes, C. Svarc IC: P. Boltz, R. Crozier, S. Davison, E. Hampson, E. Hartill, K. Lutkins, S. Peters, R. Svarc

North Melbourne Kangaroos: FB: S. Wright, J. Ferguson HB: E. Kearney, E. O’Shea, L. Birch C: T. Craven, J. Garner, T. Gatt HF: B. Eddey, K., Shierlaw, A. O’Loughlin FF: E. King, T. Randall Fol: K. Rennie, A. Riddell, M. King IC: N. Martin, V. Wall, R. Tripodi, N. Bresnehan, A. Smith, Z. Savarirayan, L. McGrath, L. Burke

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