AFL 2024 Round 14 – Betting Tips, Odds & Predictions

Round 13 is in the books, the King’s Birthday long weekend delivering plenty of close games across the course of five days. Unfortunately the most anticipated matchups on Sunday and Monday weren’t particularly close, and instead it was what looked like a pretty underwhelming start to the round which actually ended up delivering the most entertaining finishes, with Thursday’s game between the Crows and the Tigers as well as all three games on Saturday being decided by single figure margins. This weekend marks the end of Thursday night games, with the round set to kick off on Friday night when the Lions host the Saints, and with six teams enjoying a mid-season break there will be just six games taking place this weekend. It doesn’t actually loom as the most interesting round in AFL history, though the Bulldogs vs Dockers on Saturday and the Giants vs Power on Sunday have the potential to be quality games, while there will be plenty of eyes on the MCG on Saturday afternoon for Dustin Martin’s 300th game when the Tigers take on the Hawks. Below, we have previewed all six games set to take place this weekend.  

After such a disappointing showing vs the Hawks the week prior, the Lions could hardly have been more emphatic in bouncing back against the Bulldogs. They were too good throughout the course of that game, ultimately running away 43-point winners against a team which had been in very good form for a month. They remain back in 13th place with a 5-1-6 record, but a percentage of 115. 1% is the third best in the league and is indicative of the fact that this team remains very capable of making a charge up the ladder over the back half of the season. The Saints, meanwhile, are just a spot behind them in 14th, but even off the back of consecutive wins they don’t quite have the same lofty aspirations this year as their opponent this weekend. Granted they were solid in defeating the Suns in a lacklustre affair on Saturday night, but having not yet had a bye and with a really poor percentage they are further back from the top eight than they might appear on first look. St. Kilda certainly deserves some credit for their past couple of weeks – the Eagles had been in good form in Perth prior to the Saints beating them and the Suns are solid enough too, but those two wins are not yet enough to disguise the fact that this has been a very disappointing season to date for the Saints. Aside from their impressive Round 2 win against the Pies, they have been unable to beat anyone of note, and though the Lions find themselves a lot further down the ladder than they would like to be at this point in the season, they certainly fit into that category. The Gabba has not been quite the sanctuary that it was last season for them when they didn’t lose at home all weekend, but it remains one of the toughest road trips in footy, and with the Lions having played pretty well barring the Hawthorn game for over a month now, they should be able to win this one pretty comfortably to continue their ascent up the AFL ladder.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Lions to win	$1.18
	Lions -27.5	$1.91
	Lions 25+	$1.76

Predicted Squads

Brisbane Lions: B: D. Zorko, J. Payne, R. Lester HB: D. Wilmot, H. Andrews, B. Starcevich C: J. Fletcher, C. Rayner, J. Berry HF: C. Cameron, E. Hipwood, H. McCluggage F: K. Lohmann, J. Daniher, Z. Bailey FOLL: O. McInerney, J. Dunkley, L. Neale - C I/C: C. Ah Chee, L. Morris, C. McKenna, B. Reville, N. Answerth EMG: H. Sharp, D. Fort, D. Joyce 

St. Kilda Saints: B: J. Battle, Z. Cordy, C. Wilkie HB: J. Webster, N. Wanganeen-Milera, J. Sinclaire C: B. Hill, M. Windhager, M. Wood HF: D. Wilson, L. Henry, M. Owens F: J. Higgins, M. King, A. Caminiti FOLL: R. Marshall, J. Steele - C, P. Dow I/C: B. Crouch, H. Clark, D. Butler, T. Membrey, R. Bonner EMG: S. Ross, A. Schoenmaker, T. Campbell 

Saturday kicks off with a clash between the Bulldogs and the Dockers which might be the most intriguing of the round. Both of these sides are trying to establish themselves as capable of not just making finals, but causing damage in it, and have done a pretty good job of that at varying points throughout the season. The Bulldogs, so often renowned for their inconsistency, put together an excellent month of footy prior to last week, a patch which kicked off just when they and in particular Luke Beveridge needed it. But that was, to an extent, brought undone last weekend when they put in a really poor showing against the Lions, going down by 43 points on their home turf. The biggest challenge for the Bulldogs over the remainder of the season is maintaining the level of play they showed for the month prior, and while last week’s loss certainly does them no favours as they attempt to shake the tag of one of the league’s most inconsistent teams, if they are able to bounce back this week, the Lions’ loss will look like an outlier in a really good six-week patch of footy. But that won’t be easy against a refreshed Dockers team. They enjoyed a well-earned bye last weekend after pumping the Demons in a hugely impressive display by 92 points, but while that was their best showing of the year it was far from the first time they have demonstrated that they are a legitimately good side. The Dockers have lost just four of their 11 games this year, two of which came after they conceded late leads and one of which came when they couldn’t hit the side of a barn kicking for goal against the Swans. They have been consistently very, very good, their only let down coming against the Eagles, and look every bit like a team that should be playing finals and potentially causing a few headaches for the more highly fancied teams once there. This will be an intriguing clash between a Dockers team that will want to keep the game tight, slow and low-scoring, and a Bulldogs team that, at their best, moves the ball as well as anyone, and whichever team gets things on their terms in that regard will likely come out victorious. If the Doggies are at their best they are really hard to stop, but the Dockers are arguably the best team in the business at limiting opposition ball movement. They can keep this game a lot slower than the Bulldogs will like and eke out a hard-fought victory away from home.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Dockers to win	$2.20
	Dockers +6.5	$1.91
	Under 167.5 total match points	$1.88

Predicted Squads

Western Bulldogs: B: L. Bramble, L. Jones, J. Busslinger HB: T. Duryea, J. O’Donnell, B. Dale C: C. Daniel, A. Treloar, B. Williams HF: R. Garcia, R. Lobb, J. Macrae F: L. Vandermeer, J. Ugle-Hagan, R. West FOLL: T. English, M. Bontempelli - C, T. Liberatore I/C: J. Freijah, H. Gallagher, B. Khamis, E. Richards, R. Sanders EMG: L. Cleary, O. Baker, C. Poulter 

Fremantle Dockers: B: H. Chapman, A. Pearce - C, J. Draper HB: J. Aish, L. Ryan, J. Clark C: J. Sharp, A. Brayshaw, H. Young HF: J. O’Meara, S. Switkowski, M. Frederick F: J. Treacy, J. Amiss, L. Jackson FOLL: S. Darcy, C. Serong, N. Fyfe I/C: M. Walters, B. Walker, B. Banfield, S. Sturt, C. Wagner EMG: T. Emmett, M. Johnson, N. Erasmus 

Though on paper this might not shape up to be a game worth getting too excited for, expect Tigers fans to descend upon the MCG on Saturday afternoon and plenty more to tune in as they celebrate one of the greatest players to ever pull on the Richmond guernsey. Dustin Martin is as synonymous as the Tigers’ recent dynasty as anyone, establishing himself as arguably the best big game player in the game’s history as he tormented opposing teams like a bearded 13-year-old playing in a league against Year 7s. The only player to ever win three Norm Smith Medals, he did so in the space of just four years, and will on Saturday become the seventh player to appear in 300 games for the Tigers. Dusty might not like the limelight, but he will get plenty of it on Saturday afternoon, and the Tigers, with plenty of key players returning over the past couple of weeks, will be in with a genuine chance at winning their third game of the year to mark the occasion. They have been really solid the past three weeks and finally got reward for effort against the Crows last Thursday night, unsurprisingly looking like a much better team with each of Dion Prestia, Shai Bolton and Tim Taranto returning. Having been ultra competitive every week with the exception of a meltdown three-week patch, expect them to give the Hawks plenty to think about on Saturday. Winning, however, is another story. It’s perhaps going under the radar just how well the Hawks are playing, but in knocking off the Giants by six points last Saturday they have now won five of their last six games – including wins against the Lions, Bulldogs as well as GWS – with their only loss in that time coming in very unlikely fashion by a point to the Power. After losing their first five games of the season, all of a sudden they are only a game outside of the top eight and are doing a great job of establishing themselves as a genuine chance to play finals footy. This could be a much better game than these teams’ respective ladder positions suggest, and the Tigers will no doubt crack in with the vigour for which they have become renowned this year, but based on the Hawks recent form they should be able to spoil Dustin Martin’s 300th game with what will probably be a pretty unpopular win at the MCG.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Hawks to win	$1.52
	Hawks 1-39	$2.20
	Hawks 1-24	$3.20

Predicted Squads

Richmond Tigers: B: B. Miller, N. Broad, N. Balta HB: N. Vlastuin, T. Brown, D. Rioli C: H. Ralphsmith, L. Baker, K. McIntosh HF: J. Graham, R. Mansell, D. Martin F: S. Bolton, T. Lynch, N. Cumberland FOLL: T. Nankervis, T. Taranto, T. Dow I/C: T. Sonsie, S. Campbell, K. McAuliffe, S. Ryan, J. Short EMG: J. Blight, S. Banks, K. Smith 

Hawthorn Hawks: B: J. Impey, S. Frost, S. Mitchell HB: K. Amon, J. Sicily - C, J. Scrimshaw C: W. Day, D. Moore, J. Weddle HF: C. Mackenzie, J. Gunston, C. Macdonald F: J. Ginnivan, L. Breust, B. Hardwick FOLL: N. Reeves, J. Newcombe, J. Worpel I/C: M. D’Ambrosio, C. Jiath, C. Nash, C. Dear, M. Chol EMG: N. Watson, M. Ramsden, H. Morrison 

• Just three of the Dockers’ 12 games so far this season have gone over the total points line set for their game against the Bulldogs this weekend.  
• Prior to their win last weekend, the Kangaroos had lost eight of their previous nine games by at least 40 points, while the ninth of them was by 38 points.
• The Swans have been dominant for two months now, with eight wins in a row and seven of them coming by at least 25 points.  

Multi of the Week

The Crows have been underwhelming to say the least so far this year, and last Thursday night’s loss at home to the Tigers probably officially spelt the end of their finals chances. Their last fortnight has been really disappointing after they appeared to be coming good, having, in a three-week period, drawn with the Lions, lost by just four points to the Magpies and then pumped the Eagles, but they followed that up with losses to the Hawks and the Tigers that have sent them to 15th place on the ladder with a 4-1-8 record. For them to challenge for the finals they can hardly afford to lose another game all season, and with the Swans waiting for them this Saturday they look likely in for a third consecutive defeat. The Swans continue to establish themselves as the runaway best team in the competition, last Sunday beating the Cats by five goals after conceding a lead of the same margin to take their record to 11-1 and extend their lead at the top of the AFL ladder. They now find themselves two games and a huge amount of percentage ahead of the Blues in second, and it’s hard to imagine them being dislodged from a top two spot which would give them a potential path to the Grand Final without having to leave the SCG. Of course, we are only halfway through the season and there is still plenty of time for things to change, but the Swans have talent coming out of their yahoo – particularly in the midfield – and have been substantially better performed than anyone else in the league for three months now. Whether that remains the case for the rest of the season remains to be seen, but as for this weekend it is hard to see them going down to the Crows given the respective form lines of these two teams.    

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Swans to win	$1.37
	Swans -17.5	$1.91
	Swans 25+	$2.10

Predicted Squads

Adelaide Crows: B: B. Smith, J. Butts, M. Hinge HB: W. Hamill, M. Keane, M. Michalanney C: C. Jones, J. Soligo, L. Sholl HF: B. Keays, D. Fogarty, J. Rachele F: I. Rankine, T. Walker, J. Borlase FOLL: R. O’Brien, R. Laird, J. Dawson  I/C: N. McHenry, B. Dowling, L. Nankervis, H. Schoenberg, S. Berry EMG: Z. Taylor, L. Gollant, C. Burgess

Sydney Swans: B: D. Rampe - C, T. McCartin, L. Melican HB: O. Florent, N. Blakey, J. Lloyd C: J. McInerney, Ch. Warner, E. Gulden HF: S. Wicks, L. McDonald, T. Adams F: T. Papley, J. Amartey, W. Hayward FOLL: B. Grundy, I. Heeney, J. Rowbottom I/C: M. Roberts, H. Cunningham, H. McLean, J. Jordon, B. Campbell EMG: C. Cleary, A. Francis, P. Ladhams 

The Kangaroos are, at long last, on the board in 2024. It’s hard to say it was a much-deserved win given that they had been thumped virtually every game of the year prior to last week’s clash with the Eagles, but it was certainly a long-awaited one and eased at least a tiny bit of the pressure which has been building on this club for the past four years. And though they no doubt benefitted from some very poor goalkicking from their opposition, the Kangaroos did acquit themselves reasonably well throughout the game. They are far from bursting with talent, but there is a decent number of talented young players beginning to emerge for the Roos, largely through the midfield as well as up forward in the form of Nick Larkey. But wins will still be very hard to come by for the remainder of the year, and their reward for notching up their first of them is a clash with the reigning Premiers followed by one next week against the Demons. As for this weekend, the Kangaroos face a Magpies team coming off a strong King’s Birthday victory, defying what is a pretty bad injury list to notch up their seventh win of the season. After their slow start to the season the Magpies have barely put a foot wrong and have been gradually working their way towards the top four, and with all these wins coming despite a raft of their best players watching on from the sideline, there is no reason to think that this team cannot go back to back in 2024. They do have a really tough last month of the home and away season, but prior to that they will head into most games as the heavy favourite and should be picking up plenty of wins in the next six weeks, starting this Sunday. The Kangaroos’ joy from last weekend’s victory will likely be short-lived, with the Magpies likely to bring them back to earth with a heavy defeat in this one. 

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Magpies 40+	$1.77
	Magpies -41.5	$1.91
	Over 173.5 total match points	$1.88

Predicted Squads

North Melbourne Kangaroos: B: A. Corr, C. Comben, K. Dawson HB: Z. Fisher, H. Sheezel, L. McDonald C: D. Tucker, L. Davies-Uniacke, L. Shiels HF: J. Stephenson, C. Zurhaar, C. Taylor F: P. Curtis, N. Larkey, T. Pink FOLL: T. Xerri, G. Wardlaw, J. Simpkin - C I/C: E. Ford, J. Archer, T. Powell, B. Nyuon, B. Scott EMG: Z. Duursma, D. Stephens, R. Hardeman 

Collingwood Magpies: B: B. Maynard, D. Moore, C. Dean HB: I. Quaynor, B. Frampton, J. Noble C: S. Sidebottom, F. Macrae, J. Daicos HF: B. Hill, L. Schultz, W. Hoskin-Elliott F: B. McCreery, P. Lipinski, J. Howe FOLL: D. Cameron, J. Crisp, N. Daicos I/C: N. Kreuger, J. Bytel, L. Sullivan, H. Harrison, O. Markov EMG: E. Allan, T. Jiath, A. Johnson 

Neither the Giants nor the Power have been particularly easy to get a gauge on this season, and each of them comes into this game with a point to prove after suffering disappointing losses in their most recent outings. For the Giants, the losses continued to pile up after a hot start to the season, with a six-point loss to the Hawks continuing their spiral down the ladder after they ended a three-game losing streak against the Cats the week prior. Just a few short weeks ago they were up there with the Swans as Premiership favourites, but while they still remain a very dangerous team capable of doing plenty of damage in September, with so many teams queueing up for spots in the top eight they need to recapture their winning ways sooner rather than later. The Power, meanwhile, look on the surface to be sitting a little prettier up in fourth spot, but with only a game separating them from the Demons back in tenth their hold on that position is precarious. Though they too have plenty of talent, most notably through their midfield, they have struggled to establish themselves as equals to the likes of the Blues, Magpies and indeed the Giants, and their last game didn’t help them as they were beaten comprehensively on their home turf by Carlton. It was only a month ago that they came away from GMHBA Stadium with an impressive win over the Cats, but by and large they have been a team this year that beats teams lower than them, but struggles against the best. That makes this game particularly interesting given that the Giants are theoretically in the latter of those categories, but have not played like it for some time now. A win against the Giants at ENGIE Stadium would be a huge result for the Power, but despite their poor recent run of results, the home side can arrest their losing skid with a hard-fought win to conclude Round 14 on Sunday.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Giants to win	$1.62
	Giants -7.5	$1.91
	Giants 16+	$2.15

Predicted Squads

Greater Western Sydney Giants: B: C. Idun, S. Taylor, H. Himmelberg HB: L. Whitfield, J. Buckley, N. Haynes C: X. O’Halloran, T. Green, J. Wehr HF: B. Daniels, J. Riccardi, A. Cadman F: T. Greene - C, J. Hogan, C. Brown FOLL: K. Briggs, F. Callaghan, J. Kelly I/C: T. McMullin, C. Ward, H. Thomas, I. Cumming, J. Peatling EMG: L. Aleer, H. Rowston, C. Stone

Port Adelaide Power: B: K. Farrell, E. Ratugolea, B. Zerk-Thatcher HB: M. Bergman, A. Aliir, D. Houston C: T. Boak, O. Wines, W. Drew HF: D. Byrne-Jones, T. Marshall, M. Georgiades F: Z. Butters - C, C. Dixon, La. Jones FOLL: I. Soldo, J. Horne-Francis, C. Rozee I/C: J. Mead, J. Finlayson, W. Rioli, R. Burton, J. Burgoyne EMG: J. Sweet, T. Clurey, J. McEntee 

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