Each and every weekend in the run home to the AFL finals is going to cause major upheaval to the ladder, and Round 20 was no exception. While a couple of the Premiership favourites suffered unexpected losses up the top of the ladder and the finals chances of the Bombers and Demons took a big hit, the Dockers and Lions furthered their respective flag cases, while the Power, Bulldogs and Hawks secured hugely impressive wins to tighten things up even further in the bottom half of the top eight. With their loss to the Lions, the Suns are all but cooked, but the Magpies’ win kept them just in the hunt for September to leave us with 12 potential finalists less than a month out from the end of the home and away season. Five of this weekend’s nine games will involve two teams in that mix, kicking off with a Bulldogs vs Demons clash on Friday night, while elsewhere the Magpies take on the Blues in a huge Saturday night fixture, the Power host the struggling Swans, and the Giants take on the surging Hawks in Sydney. Take a look at our previews for each and every one of this weekend’s games below.
AFL 2024 Round 21
Western Bulldogs vs Melbourne Demons
The Bulldogs have suffered their fair share of criticism throughout the course of this season, but they are beginning to look scary heading towards September. They have now won five of their last six games and three on the trot, with those wins coming against the Blues, Cats and Swans – the latter two by heavy margins. Prior to last Sunday’s clash against the Dogs, Sydney hadn’t lost a game since last year by more than a goal; but that trend was emphatically ended by the Bulldogs, who systematically dismantled this year’s most dominant team en route to an 87-48 win. The Doggies’ midfield is firing on all cylinders while their talented but at times dysfunctional forward line, and as for criticisms of their backline – well, they’ve conceded 96 points total in the past fortnight against two of the top five teams in the league in terms of points for. Despite all of these wins the Dogs have still only managed to work their way up to 8th spot, but their excellent percentage means that they are just a game from 4th. If they keep playing the way they are they could easily win three or four of their last four games, and top four would be very much on the cards if they do that.
Next on their list is the Demons, who despite sitting just a game behind the Dogs, are trending very much in a different direction. Their dwindling finals hopes took another hit last Saturday night when they went down to the Giants in heartbreaking fashion, climbing their way back from more than four goals down late in the game to lose by just a couple of points. But gallant though that performance might have been, at this point in the year they will take little heart from competitive losses. They need wins, and if they don’t get one this weekend they will end the round two games and percentage out of the top eight with three games to go – in other words, all but out of the finals race. The Demons are capable of pulling something out of the box and there is always the possibilities of a down performance from the Bulldogs, but they’ve been nothing but impressive over the past three weeks and really for much of the last couple of months. An upset win to the Dees certainly isn’t out of the realms of possibility, but based on the way both of these teams have been playing of late, the Doggies should be continuing their charge towards the top four with another strong win.
Predicted Squads
Western Bulldogs: B: T. Duryea, B. Khamis, N. Coffield HB: L. Bramble, R. Lobb, B. Dale C: L. Vandermeer, E. Richards, B. Williams HF: A. Treloar, A. Naughton, J. Ugle-Hagan F: C. Weightman, S. Darcy, R. West FOLL: T. English, M. Bontempelli - C, T. Liberatore I/C: R. Garcia, L. Jones, L. McNeil, C. Poulter, C. Daniel EMG: J. Macrae, J. Freijah, O. Baker
Melbourne Demons: B: T. McDonald, S. May, J. McVee HB: J. Bowey, J. Lever, A. Moniz-Wakefield C: E. Langdon, C. Oliver, C. Windsor HF: K. Pickett, J. van Rooyen, J. Melksham F: K. Chandler, B. Fritsch, H. Petty FOLL: M. Gawn - C, J. Viney, T. Rivers I/C: J. Billings, B. Laurie, A. Neal-Bullen, T. Woewodin, T. Sparrow EMG: B. Howes, D. Turner, K. Brown
West Coast Eagles vs Gold Coast Suns
The Eagles’ losing streak extended to nine games last Saturday night, a 35-point loss in the second Western Derby of the year sending their record to 3-16. They were competitive in that game and led for a long time, but the Dockers were always going to take over at some point and that is exactly what they did in the second half. There is not a whole lot to say about the Eagles’ season at this point; they are not good, the path forward is not particularly clear, and they have little to play for over the remaining month of the season under interim coach Jarrad Schofield.
Unfortunately, the Suns have probably joined them after a second consecutive loss and their first at Peoples First Stadium for the year last weekend. They were no match for the charging Lions in the QClash, going down by 28 points and falling two games and a whole lot of percentage out of the top eight in the process. Once again, they appear destined for the kind of season which they have had all too often in recent times; good enough to hang around the top eight for much of the year, but not good enough to play finals. They do actually have a pretty cushy last month, but they will need to win all four games to make the top eight and even then wouldn’t be guaranteed of a finals spot. Still, they can at least keep things moderately interesting for their sparse supporter base with a win this weekend, and ideally a big win given they will likely need a bit of a boost in percentage if they are to make an unlikely charge into September. Their form away from home has been atrocious this year, but needing to win to keep any sort of finals hopes alive, they should be able to knock off the hapless Eagles pretty easily on a Friday night game which will very much play second fiddle to its Dogs vs Demons predecessor.
Predicted Squads
West Coast Eagles: B: T. Cole, T. Barrass, H. Edwards HB: J. Hunt, J. McGovern, B. Hough C: R. Maric, T. Kelly, L. Edwards HF: L. Ryan, J. Waterman, J. Cripps F: J. Darling, O. Allen - C, J. Williams FOLL: B. Williams, E. Yeo, H. Reid I/C: R. Ginbey, D. Sheed, A. Witherden, J. Hutchinson, J. Culley EMG: Z. Trew, J. Petruccelle, J. Rotham
Gold Coast Suns: B: S. Collins, W. Powell, M. Andrew HB: L. Johnston, C. Ballard, J. Jeffrey C: T. Miller, N. Anderson, S. Clohesy HF: B. Humphrey, W. Graham, L. Weller F: B. Long, B. King, J. Lukosius FOLL: J. Witts, S. Flanders, M. Rowell I/C: A. Sexton, D. Swallow, N. Holman, M. Rosas, T. Berry EMG: A. Sexton, J. Walter, C. Budarick
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Richmond Tigers
There are plenty of games that will attract a lot of attention this weekend, but this probably isn’t chief among them. Granted there is a little bit on the line – potentially the number one pick – but a clash between the 17th placed Kangaroos and the 18th placed Tigers, who have won a combined total of four games this season, isn’t likely to set the world on fire. The Roos have actually shown plenty of improvement this year, specifically over the past six weeks or so, though a couple of tough matchups in the last three weeks have seen the hefty defeats which were a weekly ritual for them over the first half of the season return. Against the Tigers, however, they should certainly be able to avoid another one.
Adem Yze’s first season as head coach of the Tigers certainly hasn’t gone to plan, though with the number of injuries he has had to deal with it’s very hard to make any sort of judgement about him or the team at this point in time. Certainly no one expects them to bounce back all that strongly next year, but they should be a lot better than they have been in 2024 with closer to a full list to choose from. But as for the remainder of this season, there is little for them to gain aside from more game time for their plethora of young kids. As they have been for a lot of the year, they were competitive without being particularly competitive against the Magpies last weekend, and like the Roos, now have a great opportunity for a rare win this weekend. This isn’t a particularly easy game to pick, but while the Tigers have generally been competitive in most games, the Kangaroos have been playing better over the past month or two. In a low-scoring game which won’t set any records for quality, they can pick up their third win of the season.
Predicted Squads
North Melbourne Kangaroos: B: A. Corr, C. Comben, G. Logue HB: J. Archer, H. Sheezel, L. McDonald C: B. Scott, L. Davies-Uniacke, D. Stephens HF: D. Tucker, Z. Duursma, J. Stephenson F: P. Curtis, N. Larkey, C. Zurhaar FOLL: T. Xerri, T. Powell, J. Simpkin - C I/C: G. Wardlaw, L. Shiels, W. Phillips, R. Hansen Jr, F. Maley EMG: M. Bergman, T. Pink, C. Lazzaro
Richmond Tigers: B: B. Miller, N. Broad, N. Vlastuin HB: J. Short, J. Blight, D. Rioli C: H. Ralphsmith, D. Prestia, K. McIntosh HF: R. Mansell, L. Baker - C, S. Campbell F: N. Balta, S. Bolton, J. Koschitzke FOLL: T. Nankervis, T. Taranto, J. Hopper I/C: T. Dow, T. Brown, S. Banks, D. Martin, J. Trezise EMG: T. Sonsie, J. Bauer, M. Coulthard
The Eagles have lost their last six games by an average of more than 44 points - The Hawks have won 10 of their last 12 games, and while the Giants have won four on the trot, they haven’t exactly been emphatic victories
- The Crows haven’t won in Geelong since 2003, losing 13 times there in that time, and have lost their last nine games there by at least 22 points.
Multi of the Week
| Legs | Odds |
| Suns -14.5 | $1.90 |
| Hawks 1-39 | $2.65 |
| Cats 25+ | $2.02 |
| Bet $10 for $101.71 with PlayUp | |
Geelong Cats vs Adelaide Crows
The Cats did what they needed to do last weekend, bouncing back from a disappointing loss to the Bulldogs with a comfortable 40-point win over the Kangaroos to keep themselves right on the edge of the top four. There are still a whole lot of possibilities for the remainder of their season, with just half a game separating them from 2nd spot but also just a game separating them from 9th, but their draw over the last month of the season is relatively easy and barring a disaster, they should be able to negotiate their way into the finals and potentially the top four. But with a game in Perth against Fremantle to come, an upset loss this weekend could very quickly set the alarm bells ringing, so they need to be on their game against a potentially dangerous Crows unit in Geelong on Saturday.
Dangerous Adelaide certainly was not last weekend as they were pumped by the Hawks to the tune of 66 points on their home turf, though prior to that they had been in a pretty good patch of form. It’s been a disappointing year for the Crows but they still have reason for optimism moving forward, and three wins in four games prior to last weekend – including defeats of the Giants and Bombers – reminded us of what they can do at their best. But they have nothing to play for over the last month of the season and it showed against the irrepressible young Hawks, who toyed with their fellow bird of prey after a competitive start to that game. At their best the Crows are a dangerous team, but they have a hell of a lot less to play for than the Cats this weekend. Geelong haven’t been quite as formidable at home this year as they have been in season’s past, but with plenty on the line they should be more than good enough to get the four points.
Predicted Squads
Geelong Cats: B: J. Henry, S. De Koning, J. Kolodjashnij HB: J. Bews, M. Duncan, Z. Guthrie C: M. Holmes, T. Bruhn, O. Dempsey HF: T. Stengle, B. Close, G. Miers F: S. Neale, J. Cameron, O. Henry FOLL: M. Blicavs, P. Dangerfield - C, T. Stewart I/C: L. Humphries, T. Atkins, S. Mannagh, J. Bowes, T. Clohesy EMG: R. Stanley, Z. Tuohy, B. Parfitt
Adelaide Crows: B: C. Jones, M. Keane, L. Nankervis HB: M. Michalanney, J. Borlase, M. Hinge C: L. Sholl, H. Bond, B. Dowling HF: B. Keays, R. Thilthorpe, J. Soligo F: L. Murphy, T. Walker, D. Fogarty - C FOLL: R. O’Brien, R. Laird, J. Dawson I/C: J. Rachele, E. Himmelberg, Z. Taylor, B. Smith, S. Berry EMG: J. Worrell, N. McHenry, B. Cook
Collingwood Magpies vs Carlton Blues
Games between the Magpies and the Blues are generally pretty heated, so with just four weeks to go and each side’s seasons very much in the balance, this Saturday night’s clash will likely make for compelling viewing. Expect close to 90,000 if not more to pack the MCG for a game which both sides desperately need to win, albeit for slightly different reasons. The Magpies find themselves with their backs well and truly against the wall as they fight to play finals the year after winning the Premiership, and with a really difficult last month of games to come they are far more likely than not to miss out on September action. A win against their arch nemesis, however, would keep them right in the hunt. After their win over the Tigers last weekend, Collingwood sits a game and percentage outside the top eight and a loss against the Blues would probably spell the end for their season, but if they get up and a couple of other results go their way they could feasibly find themselves just percentage out of the eight by round’s end.
The Blues are far more comfortably positioned up in 4th, but they are not sitting nearly as pretty as they were a couple of weeks ago when they appeared destined to lock up 2nd spot. They have lost three of their last four games, the only win coming in relatively unconvincing fashion against the Kangaroos, and though they are still just half a game out of 2nd spot, they are also just a game and a little bit of percentage inside the top eight. With games against the Eagles and Saints to come they would need to really capitulate to miss out on the finals, but given where they sat a couple of weeks ago, their aspirations this season are a lot loftier than just making finals. This is a side with Premiership ambition, and as we know, fulfilling that ambition is very hard from outside the top four. If they lose this game they will forfeit their handle on the double chance at least for this weekend, and are far from guaranteed to get it back. They will likely be boosted by the return of the Harry McKay, who was suspiciously absent from last week’s game with ‘illness’ after a controversially handled head knock the round prior, and with he and Curnow back together they will look a lot more potent than they did against the Power last weekend. That alone probably won’t determine this game and the Magpies, with their season on the line, will come out firing, but the Blues are the better side at the moment and should be able to eke out a hard fought win.
Predicted Squads
Collingwood Magpies: B: B. Maynard, D. Moore - C, I. Quaynor HB: J. Noble, J. Howe, N. Daicos C: S. Sidebottom, N. Long, J. Daicos HF: B. Hill, L. Schultz, J. Elliott F: M. Cox, D. McStay, B. McReery FOLL: D. Cameron, S. Pendlebury, J. Crisp I/C: P. Lipinski, J. Bytel, W. Hoskin-Elliott, O. Markov, L. Sullivan EMG: B. Frampton, O. Markov, C. Dean
Carlton Blues: B: B. Kemp, J. Weitering, N. Newman HB: A. Saad, M. McGovern, A. Cerra C: O. Hollands, P. Cripps - C, B. Acres HF: E. Hollands, H. McKay, M. Kennedy F: L. Fogarty, C. Curnow, J. Motlop FOLL: M. Pittonet, S. Walsh, G. Hewett I/C: L. Cowan, A. Cincotta, D. Cuningham, J. Boyd, M. Cottrell EMG: J. Boyd, C. Marchban, L. Young
Port Adelaide Power vs Sydney Swans
There are plenty of teams whose seasons are on a proverbial knife’s edge, and the Power are just about the poster child for that group of teams. For much of the season they have been precariously placed; seemingly perennially one loss away from falling out of the eight and having Ken Hinkley unceremoniously marched out of the city, while at the same time being just a good win away from jumping into the top four and establishing themselves as an actual Premiership contender. Five weeks ago they were a lot closer to the former than the latter, but they have gone and won four of their last five games to keep the critics at bay. Their latest was a hugely impressive road win over the Blues last Friday night, and though it didn’t actually change their ladder position and they still sit in 7th, they are just half a game from second and suddenly in some pretty good form. They now have to face the top of the table Swans, but there could hardly be a better time to get them, and if Port can notch up another win they will potentially put themselves right in the top four and be one of the in-form teams in the league.
The Swans still almost certainly have top spot sewn up, but four losses in their last five games is not exactly the form they would have hoped to be displaying this close to the finals. Of course, the first three of those losses were by a combined total of five points and two of them came against the teams currently in 2nd and 3rd spot on the ladder, but last weekend was the first time that they were beaten comfortably since last year. They looked nowhere near it against the impressive Bulldogs, booting just seven goals en route to a 39-point loss. But out of form they may be, this was the best team in the league for the first four months of the season for good reason. Another loss here will actually spell a little bit of danger for their position on top of the ladder, so for the first time in some time there is a bit on the line for the nominal Premiership favourites. The Power are playing really good footy and grow an extra leg on their home turf, but the Swans just have too much talent running around to be playing the way that they are, and with their backs against the wall for the first time all year they can bounce back with a pivotal close victory on the road.
Predicted Squads
Port Adelaide Power: B: E. Ratugolea, B. Zerk-Thatcher, M. Bergman HB: L. Evans, A. Aliir, D. Houston C: J. Burgoyne, O. Wines, W. Drew HF: D. Byrne-Jones, M. Georgiades, W. Rioli F: T. Boak, C. Dixon, C. Rozee - C FOLL: J. Sweet, J. Horne-Francis, Z. Butters I/C: J. Mead, K. Farrell, F. Evans, T. Marshall, Q. Narkle EMG: O. Lord, D. Williams, D. Visentini
Sydney Swans: B: H. Cunningham, T. McCartin, N. Blakey HB: O. Florent, A. Francis, J. Lloyd C: M. Roberts, Ch. Warner, J. Jordon HF: E. Gulden, L. McDonald, C. Mills - C F: R. Fox, J. Amartey, W. Hayward FOLL: B. Grundy, I. Heeney, T. Adams I/C: B. Campbell, Co. Warner, H. McLean, J. Rowbottom, L. Parker EMG: S. Wicks, P. Ladhams, C. Mitchell
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs Hawthorn Hawks
After beating the Demons last Saturday night, the Giants now have two streaks of at least four consecutive wins this year, having started the season with five in a row. Unfortunately, wedged in between those streaks was ten weeks of indifferent form and they are still not assured of a finals spot as a result, but these last four wins have come just in the nick of time. One of four teams with a 12-7 record, they sit half a game from 2nd spot but just a game clear of 9th, and have a really difficult draw to come, with this potentially their most winnable game – which is really saying something given how the Hawks are travelling. Because of that draw, the Giants desperately needed to beat the Demons last weekend and very nearly snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, but they held on by two points despite conceding the last four goals of the game for a pivotal win. A loss this weekend, however, will put their finals hopes in jeopardy, and though they will enter this game as favourites they will have their work cut out.
The Hawks season has been a remarkable one; after six losses in their first seven games, they are now on a 10-2 streak over the past three months, and with one of those losses coming in remarkable fashion by one point against the Power it could easily be 11-1. This young team certainly isn’t yet at the level from a talent perspective of many of the other teams in the top eight, but they don’t seem to care. They are playing with an air of abandon which is making them incredibly dangerous, and though they haven’t yet found their way into the top eight, they are right on its edge and if they do make it through to September will be a team that nobody wants to play. Their performance last weekend was one of their most impressive yet as they pumped the Crows by 66 points in Adelaide, and with games against the Kangaroos and Tigers to round out the season, if they can snatch one in their next fortnight they will be a great chance of playing finals. Every week it feels as though their irrepressible run of form will surely come to an end, and every week it doesn’t. In the last three weeks they have beaten the Dockers and demolished the Magpies and Crows, and as underdogs in this game against a Giants team which is winning but not firing on all cylinders, the Hawks look well placed to claim yet another scalp.
Predicted Squads
Greater Western Sydney Giants: B: C. Idun, J. Buckley, H. Himmelberg HB: L. Whitfield, S. Taylor, H. Perryman C: C. Ward, T. Green, T. McMullin HF: B. Daniels, J. Riccardi, T. Bedford F: T. Greene - C, J. Hogan, D. Jones FOLL: K. Briggs, F. Callaghan, S. Coniglio I/C: M. Gruzewski, H. Thomas, L. Ash, X. O’Halloran, J. Peatling EMG: C. Stone, L. Keeffe, N. Haynes
Hawthorn Hawks: B: J. Scrimshaw, S. Frost, J. Impey HB: C. Jiath, J. Sicily - C, F. Maginness C: D. Moore, J. Newcombe, K. Amon HF: J. Ginnivan, W. Day, N. Watson F: M. Chol, B. Hardwick, C. Mackenzie FOLL: L. Meek, J. Worpel, J. Ward I/C: M. D’Ambrosio, J. Weddle, L. Breust, C. Dear, C. Macdonald EMG: C. Mackenzie, J. Gunston, H. Morrison
Essendon Bombers vs Fremantle Dockers
There may not have been a more disappointing performance than what the Bombers dished up last weekend all season. Nobody expected them to hang onto the spot in the top two that they held for a number of weeks earlier in the season, but their drop off has been more drastic than most expected and their effort last weekend, with their finals hopes potentially on the line, was nothing short of pathetic. Certainly the Saints have been playing better footy over the past month but they are a bottom five side, and they pounded the Bombers from pillar to post. The end result was a 53-point loss to the Bombers, who have now lost three games on the trot to fall to 10th spot and turn themselves from a potential top four team into an abject outsider to make the finals – particularly given the difficulty of their run home.
It starts with a clash this weekend against the Dockers, who are doing a good job of establishing themselves as a legitimate Premiership contender. Fremantle have been really good all year, but it’s taken a little while for the AFL world to catch on. Five wins in their last six games and eight in their last ten, however, has catapulted them into 3rd spot, and no one is in the dark about their capabilities anymore. They didn’t play at nearly their best last weekend, but nor did they need to up against the Eagles, and after a slow start they still did enough to run out six goal winners. Their spot in the top four is far from assured, but they are deserving of the double chance and with a win this weekend could potentially put themselves a game and a half clear inside that top four. Trips to Melbourne have not typically been their forte and they have put in a couple of disappointing showings in Victoria this year, but by and large they have handled travel with aplomb this year. This is the best version of the Dockers that we have seen for some time, and an outfit as professional as they are should be able to take care of the struggling Bombers reasonably comfortably.
Predicted Squads
Essendon Bombers: B: J. Ridley, B. McKay, J. Laverde HB: N. Martin, M. Redman, A. McGrath C: N. Cox, D. Shiel, X. Duursma HF: J. Stringer, N. Caddy, S. Durham F: K. Langford, H. Jones, J. Gresham FOLL: S. Draper, J. Caldwell, Z. Merrett - C I/C: D. Parish, D. Heppell, T. Goldstein, N. Hind, A. Perkins EMG: B. Hobbs, P. Wright, A. Roberts
Fremantle Dockers: B: L. Ryan, J. Draper, B. Cox HB: B. Walker, H. Chapman, J. Clark C: J. O’Meara, N. Fyfe, H. Young HF: S. Sturt, S. Switkowski, M. Frederick F: J. Treacy, J. Amiss, L. Jackson FOLL: S. Darcy, C. Serong, A. Brayshaw - C I/C: J. Sharp, B. Banfield, C. Wagner, T. Emmett, J. Aish EMG: C. Simpson, E. Hughes, P. Voss
St. Kilda Saints vs Brisbane Lions
Though much of the discussion about their game last week has centred around the performance of the Bombers, the Saints deserve plenty of credit for their 55-point win, even if it is ultimately all for naught. In what has been a disappointing year, they are trying to salvage something late in the season and have won three of their last four games, and though it doesn’t really mean a whole lot it does at least provide a little bit of optimism for next year. This weekend, however, it will be tough for them to continue their strong form up against a team which is in the best form in the competition.
Following a slow start to the year, the Lions have worked their way into the season nicely and could not be hitting their straps at a better time. They have now won eight games on the trot to fly into 2nd position, and if they can hang onto it they will – as they did last year – have a potential path into the Grand Final without needing to leave the Gabba. After a brilliant win against the Swans a fortnight ago, they were simply too good for their intrastate rival in the Suns last weekend, winning that one by 28 points, and with a reasonably friendly fixture to come the prospects of them hanging onto 2nd spot are looking pretty good. A loss here would certainly throw a spanner in the works, but solid as the Saints form has been, they are a team with a relatively limited ceiling. The Lions are not. The sky is their limit this year and the Premiership which so narrowly eluded them last year is very much on the table this year. A top two spot would go a long way to helping them secure it, and they should be able to take an important step towards securing it with a comfortable win over the Saints this weekend.
Predicted Squads
St. Kilda Saints:B: J. Battle, D. Howard, C. Wilkie HB: L. Stocker, N. Wanganeen-Milera, J. Webster C: B. Hill, J. Sinclair, R. Byrnes HF: M. Wood, J. Higgins, M. Owens F: A. Caminiti, T. Membrey, C. Sharman FOLL: R. Marshall, J. Steele - C, Z. Jones I/C: H. Clark, D. Butler, D. Wilson, R. Bonner, H. Garcia EMG: P. Dow, A. McLennan, M. Heath
Brisbane Lions: B: D. Zorko, H. Andrews, B. Starcevich HB: D. Wilmot, R. Lester, J. Berry C: J. Fletcher, W. Ashcroft, H. McCluggage HF: C. Rayner, J. Daniher, K. Lohmann F: C. Cameron, E. Hipwood, Z. Bailey FOLL: O. McInerney, J. Dunkley, L. Neale - C I/C: C. Ah Chee, J. Prior, L. Morris, S. Brain, C. McKenna EMG: H. Sharp, D. Fort, B. Reville
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