NRL 2024 Round 23 – Betting Tips, Odds & Predictions

There were a couple of big winners in Round 22 of the NRL season, most notable among them the Dragons, whose two-point win over the Storm saw them jump inside the top eight. The Titans, too, secured an impressive win to keep their unlikely finals hopes alive, while the team they beat in the Broncos are now surely resigned to the fact that they won’t be playing finals the year after they went so close to winning it all. It was the Dolphins’ spot in the top eight that the Dragons took, with their gallant performance against the Roosters not enough to see them hang onto the spot in the eight they have held for so long. But as we have seen all year, things will likely change drastically once again this weekend, and with that in mind let’s take a look at all eight games set to take place across Round 23.

The Rabbitohs’ unlikely late push for a spot in the finals has well and truly come to an end, with a 20-6 loss to the Sharks last weekend their third defeat in four games and putting them three games in arrears of the Dragons in eighth. Even if they were a little closer they would find it tough to make any sort of a push given, in the last five weeks of the season, they have to take on each of the Panthers, Roosters and this week, the Storm – the best three teams in the competition by some margin.

The Storm, of course, have been sitting on top of the NRL ladder for some time, though they did suffer an uncharacteristic defeat last weekend. Having lost just a solitary game at AAMI Park all year prior to that game against the Dragons, it was hard to envision any result but another win for the home side. The visitors, however, took it right to them, extending a 12-10 half-time lead to 18-10 early in the second, and while the Storm bounced back soon after they were unable to secure the fourth try they needed to win the game. The Storm remain safely embedded inside the top two, but that loss enabled the Panthers to close to within a game of them at the top of the ladder, and if the Roosters end up finishing 3rd – the position they currently occupy – then it will be advantageous to finish on top and thus avoid them in the Qualifying Final – though whoever manages that will likely have to go through them in the Prelim regardless. Regardless of what is on the line, however, the Storm are a hell of a lot better a team than the Bunnies, and should be able to win this one relatively comfortably.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Storm to win	$1.16
	Storm 13+	$1.72
	Storm 7+	$1.38

Predicted Squads

South Sydney Rabbitohs: 1. Jye Gray 2. Fletcher Myers 3. Taane Milne 4. Richard Kennar 5. Jacob Gagai 6. Jack Wighton 7. Cody Walker 8. Davvy Moale 9. Damien Cook 10. Sean Keppie 11. Cameron Murray 12. Jacob Host 13. Keaon Koloamatangi 14. Michael Chee Kam 15. Siliva Havili 16. Tom Burgess 17. Tallis Duncan

Melbourne Storm: 1. Ryan Papenhuyzen 2. Will Warbrick 3. Jack Howarth 4. Nick Meaney 5. Grant Anderson 6. Cameron Munster 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Nelson Asofa-Solomona 9. Harry Grant 10. Josh King 11. Shawn Blore 12. Eli Katoa 13. Trent Loiero 14. Tyran Wishart 15. Lazarus Vaalepu 16. Christian Welch 17. Alec MacDonald

Surely the Titans couldn’t actually make the finals…could they? One of the more unlikely pushes for finals action in recent times is increasingly gaining traction, with a dominant win over the Broncos last weekend the fifth in six weeks for the Titans. After being the comfortable Wooden Spoon favourite early in the year they have been solid all season long, and have been playing like a team possessed over the past six weeks. That Dragons win over the Storm put a bit of a spanner in the works – the Titans would have been just a game outside the eight had the Storm won – but even so, a two-game gap with five weeks still to play is certainly manageable. A win this week, however, might be required to do it.

The Sharks have plenty to play for too. After stumbling significantly over the past few months, they have managed to wrestle back a little bit of momentum in their season with two wins in the last three weeks, though they have both come against bottom three sides. They looked solid in beating the Rabbitohs 20-6 last weekend, but the Titans in their current form is an entirely different proposition, particularly up on the Gold Coast. The Sharks have been the superior team all year, but while they sit in 4th and the Titans in 11th, neither of these teams is playing like their respective ladder positions would suggest. Gold Coast’s surge towards September has been enthralling to watch, and with their tails about as high as it gets, they can keep the dream alive with a pivotal win over a current top four side.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Titans to win	$1,74
	Titans -2.5	$1.95
	Titans 1-12	$3.20

Predicted Squads

Gold Coast Titans: 1. Keano Kini 2. Alofiana Khan-Pereira 3. Brian Kelly 4. Phillip Sami 5. Jojo Fifita 6. Jayden Campbell 7. Kieran Foran 8. Moeaki Fotuaika 9. Chris Randall 10. Jaimin Jolliffe 11. David Fifita 12. Beau Fermor 13. Erin Clark 14. AJ Brimson 15. Isaac Liu 16. Klese Haas 17. Josiah Pahulu

Cronulla Sharks: 1. Will Kennedy 2. Sione Katoa 3. Jesse Ramien 4. Kayal Iro 5. Samuel Stonestreet 6. Daniel Atkinson 7. Braydon Trindall 8. Royce Hunt 9. Blayke Brailey 10. Oregon Kaufusi 11. Briton Nikora 12. Teig Wilton 13. Cameron McInnes 14. Siosifa Talakai 15. Tom Hazelton 16. Toby Rudolf 17. Braden Hamlin-Uele

Wins have been few and far between for the Eels this season, so while it does not mean a whole lot they had cause to celebrate their 30-20 defeat of the Warriors last weekend. That was just their second win since Round 6 and their fifth of the year, and it will likely see them avoid the Wooden Spoon – though with a game to come against the Tigers in the last round of the year there is still time for that to change. The Eels should enjoy that victory while they can, because they’re not likely to have quite as much joy when they welcome the Panthers to CommBank Stadium this Friday night.

Penrith is rolling along nicely in their quest for a fourth consecutive Premiership, last weekend picking up their fourth win in a row and closing the gap on the Storm atop the NRL ladder to just one game. They took a while to rid themselves of a plucky Newcastle outfit in that game and led by just a solitary score deep in the second half, but a Nathan Cleary penalty goal in the 79th minute extended the lead to eight points to secure the win and take their record to 14-5. Barring a disaster they will finish top two, and whether they can catch the Storm and finish on top is the more pressing question – one which we will be a lot closer to knowing the answer two when they play each other next week. It's hard to see the Panthers losing another game aside from that one given who they play in the last five weeks of the regular season, and this is no exception; they should have no problems disposing of the Eels on Friday night.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Panthers to win	$1.16
	Panthers -16.5	$1.90
	Panthers 13+	$1.62

Predicted Squads

Parramatta Eels: 1. Clint Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Will Penisini 4. Blaize Talagi 5. Sean Russell 6. Dylan Brown 7. Daejarn Asi 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Brendan Hands 10. Wiremu Greig 11. Shaun Lane 12. Bryce Cartwright 13. Ryan Matterson 14. Joey Lussick 15. Joe Ofahengaue 16. Luca Moretti 17. Kelma Tuilagi

Penrith Panthers: 1. Daine Laurie 2. Sunia Turuva 3. Izack Tago 4. Casey McLean 5. Brian To'o 6. Jarome Luai 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Moses Leota 9. Mitch Kenny 10. Lindsay Smith 11. Scott Sorensen 12. Liam Martin 13. Isaah Yeo 14. Trent Toelau 15. Matthew Eisenhuth 16. Liam Henry 17. Mavrik Geyer

• Each of the Tigers’ last nine losses have been by at least 12 points.
• The Titans have won five of their last six, including a win against the Sharks in that time, while the Sharks are 2-4 during the same period, with those two wins coming against bottom three teams.
• The Broncos have lost eight of their last nine games, and only two of those losses have been by less than eight points.

Multi of the Week

Saturday’s action kicks off with an intriguing clash between two sides embroiled in the fight for the lower spots in the top eight, and though the Sea Eagles are substantially better placed at this point than their opponent in this game, things could very quickly change if the Raiders get up. They enter this game on the back of a heartbreaking loss against the Bulldogs last weekend that ended a two-game winning streak, a loss in which they trailed throughout most of the second half but got to within just four points with seven minutes remaining. Unfortunately that was as close as they got, but against a really strong Bulldogs team the effort continued a relatively rich vein of form for the team from the nation’s capital over the past three weeks. They will need to continue that if they’re to challenge the Sea Eagles.

Manly got some free points courtesy of the bye last weekend, and with the Dolphins losing they went a game and a half clear inside the top eight. Having won three of their previous four games, the only loss coming by just four points to the Roosters, they have well and truly earned their spot inside the top eight, and while they can’t lose it this weekend their spot their will certainly be a lot more precarious if they lose. But on the flip side, a win could theoretically have them within a point of the top four. When these two sides met earlier in the year the Raiders sprung a surprise in Manly to win by two points, but with Tom and Jake Trbojevic both fit and firing alongside Daly Cherry-Evans, the Sea Eagles can reverse the result this time around.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Sea Eagles to win	$1.65
	Sea Eagles -3.5	$1.85
	Sea Eagles 7+	$2.10

Predicted Squads

Canberra Raiders: 1. Kaeo Weekes 2. Jordan Rapana 3. Matt Timoko 4. Seb Kris 5. Xavier Savage 6. Ethan Strange 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Josh Papalii 9. Tom Starling 10. Trey Mooney 11. Hudson Young 12. Elliott Whitehead 13. Joe Tapine 14. Danny Levi 15. Ata Mariota 16. Zac Hosking 17. Emre Guler

Manly Sea Eagles: 1. Tom Trbojevic 2. Jason Saab 3. Ben Trbojevic 4. Reuben Garrick 5. Tommy Talau 6. Luke Brooks 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Taniela Paseka 9. Jake Simpkin 10. Josh Aloiai 11. Haumole Olakau'atu 12. Karl Lawton 13. Jake Trbojevic 14. Gordon Chan Kum Tong 15. Ethan Bullemor 16. Toafofoa Sipley 17. Nathan Brown

The Cowboys are charging towards the finals, with five wins in their last six games putting them in a great position to not just make finals, but challenge for the top four. Their latest victory was a relatively straightforward one, and though they would no doubt have preferred not to concede 30 points to the Tigers, a large chunk of those came when the result was beyond doubt in the last 20 minutes and the Cowboys put up 48 of their own. With three consecutive home games to come they have a chance to challenge most likely the Sharks, who are just a game ahead of them in 4th, for a spot in the top four, though they will want to beat the Broncos this weekend if they’re going to do that.

Based on form, that shouldn’t be an issue. While the Cowboys have been hitting some of their best form of the season as we near the business end, the Broncos have continued to slump, last weekend losing the eighth of their last nine games – and the last two have probably been the worst of them. After going down 41-16 to the Bulldogs a fortnight ago, they were pummelled from pillar to post in a season-defining game against the Titans, losing that one 46-18. They are now three games outside of the top eight and their season is done and dusted, and based on how they were playing even when finals were still on the agenda, it’s hard to imagine them giving the Cowboys much of a run up in Townsville on Saturday.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Cowboys to win	$1.48
	Cowboys -6.5	$1.90
	Cowboys 13+	$2.50

Predicted Squads

North Queensland Cowboys: 1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Kyle Feldt 3. Valentine Holmes 4. Villiami Vailea 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Tom Dearden 7. Chad Townsend 8. Jordan McLean 9. Reece Robson 10. Griffin Neame 11. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki 12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Reuben Cotter 14. Jaxon Purdue 15. Sam McIntyre 16. Harrison Edwards 17. Thomas Mikaele

Brisbane Broncos: 1. Reece Walsh 2. Corey Oates 3. Kotoni Staggs 4. Deine Mariner 5. Jesse Arthars 6. Josh Rogers 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Corey Jensen 9. Billy Walters 10. Xavier Willison 11. Brendan Piakura 12. Jordan Riki 13. Patrick Carrigan 14. Blake Mozer 15. Kobe Hetherington 16. Martin Taupau 17. Fletcher Baker

The Dragons are officially in the eight, and what a way to do it. All year long they have been exceeding expectations, so it’s only fitting that they jump into a finals position by beating a Storm team in Melbourne that had previously lost just one game all year there. That 18-16 win was as tough as it gets, particularly following two drubbings at the hands of the other two members of the triumvirate of Premiership favourites over the past couple of weeks, but as the Dragons will be only too aware, the season is a long way from over. They have numerous teams nipping at their heels looking for that 8th spot, and still five more games to negotiate before the end of the regular season. Their draw is relatively favourable, but this weekend’s clash will not be an easy one.

The Bulldogs have established themselves as one of the best, if not the best, teams in the league outside of that aforementioned trio of frontrunners, going 11-6 since losing their first two games of the season and losing just one game by more than a score in that time. They remained undefeated at home with a hard-fought win over the Raiders last weekend, though of course, that record in Canterbury is largely offset by a 2-8 record away. Most of those away losses, however, have been tight ones, so their issues on the road aren’t nearly as pronounced as they might initially appear, and last time they had to travel they pumped the Broncos 41-16. Coming off a strong win, the Dragons should prove tough to beat, but they have been erratic all season, and the Bulldogs can secure a second consecutive away win relatively comfortably. 

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Bulldogs to win	$1.65
	Bulldogs -3.5	$1.90
	Bulldogs 7+	$2.15

Predicted Squads

St. George Illawarra Dragons: 1. Tyrell Sloan 2. Zac Lomax 3. Moses Suli 4. Max Feagai 5. Christian Tuipulotu 6. Kyle Flanagan 7. Ben Hunt 8. Hame Sele 9. Jacob Liddle 10. Blake Lawrie 11. Luciano Leilua 12. Jaydn Su'A 13. Tom Eisenhuth 14. Jack de Belin 15. Francis Molo 16. Raymond Faitala-Mariner 17. Ryan Couchman

Canterbury Bulldogs: 1. Connor Tracey 2. Jacob Kiraz 3. Bronson Xerri 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Matt Burton 7. Toby Sexton 8. Josh Curran 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Sam Hughes 11. Viliame Kikau 12. Jacob Preston 13. Kurt Mann 14. Bailey Hayward 15. Lipoi Hopoi 16. Kurtis Morrin 17. Harry Hayes

The Dolphins must be getting pretty sick of being gallant in defeat. They have lost three games in a row by two points or less, a couple of those to two of the best to three teams in the league and the other to a Titans team which is playing as well as anyone over the past month or so. The latest of those was a 40-34 loss to the Roosters, a game in which a ten-minute patch early in the second half cost them dearly – the Roosters scoring 18 points in that time. As a result of that loss they fell out of the top eight, but they are just a game behind the Dragons and have a superior points differential to most of the other teams fighting for that 8th spot, so all is not lost just yet.

Not so for the Warriors. Their season is all but over following a loss to the Eels last weekend; their third in the last four games. That was a truly dreadful performance against one of the worst teams in the league; they were down 30-4 entering the last ten minutes, and it was only three tries in those remaining minutes which saw the scoreboard turn into something vaguely respectable. But with their season on the line against a bottom two team, any loss was going to be unacceptable. That will have taken the wind right out of their sails, and with the Dolphins having a hell of a lot more to play for and likely a lot of frustration about their tight losses over the past three weeks, should be able to get the job done on their home turf.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Dolphins to win	$1.45
	Dolphins -7.5	$1.90
	Dolphins 7+	$1.86

Predicted Squads

The Dolphins: 1. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 2. Jamayne Isaako 3. Jake Averillo 4. Herbie Farnworth 5. Jack Bostock 6. Kodi Nikorima 7. Isaiya Katoa 8. Jesse Bromwich 9. Max Plath 10. Tevita Pangai Junior 11. Felise Kaufusi 12. Connelly Lemuelu 13. Kenny Bromwich 14. Josh Kerr 15. Mark Nicholls 16. Ray Stone 17. Sean O'Sullivan

New Zealand Warriors: 1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 3. Ali Leiataua 4. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck 5. Marcelo Montoya 6. Chanel Harris-Tavita 7. Shaun Johnson 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Wayde Egan 10. Mitch Barnett 11. Marata Niukore 12. Kurt Capewell 13. Jazz Tevaga 14. Freddy Lussick 15. Tom Ale 16. Bunty Afoa 17. Leka Halasima

The Knights’ season is not dead just yet, but after suffering their third loss in a row last weekend it is very much on life support. That loss in isolation was no disaster – an eight point defeat at the hands of the Panthers – but particularly with the Dragons winning they really needed a victory and now need everything to go right if they are to make it back to the finals for the second year running. In their favour, however, is a relatively straightforward draw, kicking off with a home clash against the Tigers to conclude Round 23 this Sunday.

The Tigers may have been resigned to yet another Wooden Spoon over the weekend after the Eels beat the Warriors, while they suffered their seventh consecutive defeat and 16th for the year. They have been conceding some massive scores of late and that continued in that game as they gave up 48 to the Cowboys, though they did at least score 30 of their own. Still, the Tigers are struggling to contain teams of late, and though the Knights are not exactly the most potent offensive team in the league, the likes of Kalyn Ponga and co should be able to run rings around them to keep their slim finals hopes alive for another week.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Knights to win	$1.33
	Knights -9.5	$1.90
	Knights 13+	$2.10

Predicted Squads

Newcastle Knights: 1. Kalyn Ponga 2. Fletcher Sharpe 3. Dane Gagai 4. Dylan Lucas 5. Greg Marzhew 6. Tyson Gamble 7. Phoenix Crossland 8. Daniel Saifiti 9. Jayden Brailey 10. Leo Thompson 11. Tyson Frizell 12. Kai Pearce-Paul 13. Adam Elliott 14. Jack Cogger 15. Jack Hetherington 16. Mat Croker 17. Brodie Jones

Wests Tigers: 1. Jahream Bula 2. Solomon Alaimalo 3. Solomona Faataape 4. Adam Doueihi 5. Charlie Staines 6. Lachlan Galvin 7. Aidan Sezer 8. Stefano Utoikamanu 9. Api Koroisau 10. David Klemmer 11. Reuben Porter 12. Samuela Fainu 13. Isaiah Papali'i 14. Tallyn Da Silva 15. Alex Seyfarth 16. Fonua Pole 17. Tim Johannssen

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