AFL 2024 Round 24 – Betting Tips, Odds & Predictions

It all comes down to this. In one of the closest seasons in recent memory, one round remains for the nine teams still realistically in finals contention to lock away their spots. Four teams need to fit into three spots at the bottom of the eight, while every team currently inside the top eight has a shot at making the top four if things go their way this weekend. The Swans locked up top spot with a win last weekend while each of the Power and Giants secured their own spots in the top four, but with the Cats and the Lions both stumbling, that all-important 4th spot remains up for grabs. That said, Geelong should be able to wrap up that spot by Saturday afternoon given they have a half-game lead in 4th and play the Eagles in Geelong, which will leave the teams playing on Saturday night and Sunday to jostle for position in the bottom half of the eight. This weekend will get increasingly intriguing as it goes on, with the most significant games scheduled for its back half, culminating with the Dockers vs the Power on Sunday night – which may or may not determine who plays finals pending previous results. Below, we’ve previewed all nine games set to make up the final round of the season.  

A few months ago this would have loomed as a really significant Round 24 matchup between two teams that most expected to be in Premiership contention. Instead, neither of them will play finals, barring a miracle for the Magpies. The Demons’ season has been little more than a disaster from start to finish; an off-season filled with unwanted talking points was ultimately a sign of things to come, and four losses in a row prior to last weekend took their record from 10-7 to 10-11 and resigned them to the bottom ten. Last week, they put in their best performance in some time by doing what no one has managed to do all year and beat the Suns at Peoples First Stadium, but that only served to highlight how disappointing they have been in the weeks prior, and despite it they have nothing to play for but pride this Friday night.  
 
The Magpies, meanwhile, will still be praying for a miracle, but given that they need to win this and have either the Blues or the Hawks lose by a combined total of around 200 points, even divine intervention can’t save them now. Like the Demons, their second half of the season has been hugely disappointing, and is set to send this incarnation of perhaps football’s proudest club into the ignominious category of Premiers who have failed to make the finals the following year. Disappointing as the season has been, their last three weeks have been thrilling, with games against the Blues, Swans and Lions all being decided by three points or less. By winning the former and latter of those they have illustrated that they aren’t all that far off the mark, but unfortunately their three-point loss to the Swans a fortnight ago ultimately means that they can’t play finals. Both teams will be keen to end disappointing years on a positive note, though with the Pies still a mathematical finals chance expect them to bring a little more heat as they attempt to secure a massive win. A win of the magnitude they need is very unlikely, but they should be able to get over the line.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Magpies to win	$1.65
	Magpies -5.5	$1.91
	Under 170.5 total match points	$1.90

Predicted Squads

Melbourne Demons: B: J. Lever, A. Tomlinson, J. McVee HB: M. Hore, T. McDonald, C. Salem C: E. Langdon, J. Viney, A. Neal-Bullen HF: J. Billings, H. Petty, K. Chandler F: K. Pickett, B. Fritsch, J. van Rooyen FOLL: M. Gawn - C, K. , Brown, T. Rivers I/C: J. Bowey, B. Howes, K. Tholstrup, B. Brown, J. Melksham EMG: M. Jefferson, T. Woewodin, D. Turner

Collingwood Magpies: B: B. Frampton, D. Moore - C, B. Maynard HB: J. Noble, W. Hoskin-Elliott, I. Quaynor C: S. Sidebottom, J. Crisp, J. Daicos HF: B. Hill, L. Schultz, J. Elliott F: B. McCreery, D. McStay, J. Howe FOLL: D. Cameron, N. Daicos, S. Pendlebury I/C: P. Lipinski, J. Bytel, W. Parker, M. Cox, N. Long EMG: H. DeMattia, E. Allan, J. Richards

The Cats will be thanking their lucky stars that the Magpies crept over the line against the Lions last weekend. With a top four spot theirs for the taking, the Cats suffered a full blown meltdown against the Saints last Saturday, giving up a significant lead that they developed early to ultimately go down to a team with nothing to play for. Had the Lions got up, they would have stolen the Cats spot in the top four, but with them losing Geelong’s fortune remains in their own hands. The equation is simple; beat the Eagles, and they will earn the double chance. In fact, if both the Power and Giants lose, which isn’t out of the question, Geelong could theoretically jump into second and avoid having to travel all finals, though they would need to absolutely pump the Eagles for that to happen. With percentage potentially set to play a role in their fortune though, don’t expect them to take the foot off the gas against the 16th placed Eagles until the final siren blows.  
 
West Coast have had their moments this year, showing at least some improvement after a truly woeful last couple of years, though they were back to their worst last weekend. Up against a Blues’ team with an incredible number of important outs, they managed just 34 points on their home deck en route to an 11-goal loss, their 17th of the season. This will almost certainly be their 18th, and their percentage of 70% - which is, in fairness, a significant improvement on last year – could take a bit of a battering too. With every point potentially set to count for the Cats and nothing on the line for the Eagles, this should be a really big win for the home team. Geelong will come out swinging and keep throwing punches for four quarters, and should be winning this one by ten goals or more.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Cats 40+	$1.58
	Cats -48.5	$1.91
	Cats 73+	$3.50

Predicted Squads

Geelong Cats: B: L. Humphries, J. Henry, J. Kolodjashnij HB: M. Holmes, M. Blicavs, Z. Guthrie C: S. Mannagh, T. Atkins, O. Dempsey HF: T. Stengle, B. Close, G. Miers F: T. Hawkins, J. Cameron, O. Henry FOLL: R. Stanley, P. Dangerfield - C, T. Stewart I/C: T. Bruhn, J. Bowes, S. De Koning, O. Mullin, M. Duncan EMG: J. Bews, Z. Tuohy, M. Hardie

West Coast Eagles: B: T. Cole, T. Barrass, B. Hough HB: L. Duggan - C, J. McGovern, J. Hunt C: R. Maric, T. Kelly, R. Ginbey HF: J. Cripps, J. Waterman, T. Dewar F: J. Darling, O. Allen, L. Ryan FOLL: B. Williams, E. Yeo, H. Reid I/C: A. Witherden, H. Johnston, Z. Trew, J. Williams, J. Petruccelle EMG: C. Hall, H. Edwards, J. Hutchinson

Way back in Opening Round, these two met in former Richmond coach Damian Hardwick’s first game as coach of the Suns. The first game of season is always filled with promise, but fast forward nearly six months and all of that remains unfulfilled for these two teams. Richmond, in particular, has had a disaster of a season. Adem Yze has been dealt a shocking hand in his first year as coach with a huge number of long-term injuries to key players, but nonetheless the season has exposed the fact that this is a list which needs a fair bit of regeneration, and will likely get it this off-season with a number of big names set to play their last game for the club this weekend before heading elsewhere.  
 
The Suns, meanwhile, have done what they always done; hung around the edge of the top eight for much of the year, but ultimately proved unable to take that next step and actually jump inside it. Were it not for the fact that they have a new, three-time Premiership winning coach at the helm, there would likely be a lot more concern about where this club is heading over the next few years, and perhaps there still should be. But it's safe to say that Dimma knows what he is doing, and Gold Coast have shown some signs at various points this year that they do have the potential to make a play for their inaugural finals series over the coming seasons. They have been woeful away from home all year and that is why they won’t play finals this year, but this should be an exception. Their travelling performances suggest that the Tigers will keep this one interesting, but based on last weekend’s effort Richmond has packed up for the season, and the Suns should be able to beat them for the second time this year on Saturday afternoon.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Suns to win	$1.53
	Suns 1-39	$2.30
	Under 174.5 total match points	$1.89

Predicted Squads

Richmond Tigers: B: B. Miller, N. Balta, N. Vlastuin HB: N. Broad, J. Trezise, D. Rioli C: J. Ross, D. Prestia, S. Banks HF: R. Mansell, J. Graham, S. Campbell F: S. Bolton, J. Koschitzke, H. Ralphsmith FOLL: T. Nankervis - C, T. Taranto, J. Hopper I/C: J. Short, J. Bauer, M. Rioli Jr, J. Blight, K. McIntosh EMG: T. Dow, K. Smith, S. Ryan

Gold Coast Suns: B: S. Lemmens, S. Collins, L. Weller HB: B. Uwland, C. Ballard, W. Powell C: N. Holman, N. Anderson, S. Clohesy HF: J. Rogers, J. Walter, B. Humphrey F: M. Rowell, M. Andrew, B. King FOLL: J. Witts, S. Flanders, T. Miller - C I/C: A. Sexton, J. Lukosius, W. Graham, C. Budarick, D. Swallow EMG: A. Davies, D. Macpherson, N. Moyle

• Eight of the last 12 Richmond games have gone comfortably under the match total line of 174. 5 set for their game, the Tigers’ inability to score heavily a major reason for that.  
• The Magpies have won five of their last six and nine of their last 11 games against the Demons, a lot of those coming while the Demons were a top four team.  
• The Lions’ last five games have gone under the points line set for their game against the Bombers.  

Multi of the Week

The Hawks, it seems, are set to play finals in 2024, something that not a single sane person would have expected when they went 0-5. That five-game losing streak finally ended when they pumped the Kangaroos, and a few months later they now have the opportunity to secure their spot in the eight against the same team. Hawthorn has hardly put a foot wrong for months and though it’s very plausible they won’t make it past the first week of the finals, they are also exactly the kind of team that nobody will want to play in September and which could easily make a very deep run. Before they can do that, of course, they have to take care of business against the Kangaroos, but they should have no problems doing that – and by enough of a margin to ensure that the Blues can’t catch them and send them down to 8th – which would likely resign them to an away Elimination Final against the Lions.  
 
The Roos have won just three games this year, but while that suggests that any improvement has been marginal, they have actually shown a hell of a lot more than they have over the past few years, particularly during the middle period of this season. They have the makings of a very talented midfield, a couple of capable forwards and have uncovered Charlie Comben as a really good backman – but that didn’t stop them losing by 96 points to the Dogs last weekend. Unless the Tigers manage to win, the Kangaroos will finish in 17th this year regardless of the result in this game, and with their season, for all intents and purposes, well and truly wrapped up, this will likely be another hefty loss for North Melbourne.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Hawks 40+	$1.52
	Hawks -49.5	$1.91
	Over 173.5 total match points	$1.89

Predicted Squads

Hawthorn Hawks: B: K. Amon, S. Frost, H. Morrison HB: J. Scrimshaw, J. Sicily - C, C. Jiath C: J. Weddle, D. Moore, J. Impey HF: J. Newcombe, C. Dear, J. Gunston F: J. Ginnivan, M. Chol, C. Mackenzie FOLL: L. Meek, J. Worpel, C. Macdonald I/C: B. Hardwick, M. D’Ambrosio, N. Watson, C. Nash, L. Breust EMG: F. Maginness, J. Serong, J. Ward

North Melbourne Kangaroos: B: A. Corr, T. Pink, L. McDonald HB: J. Archer, D. Tucker, C. McKercher C: B. Scott, L. Davies-Uniacke, D. Stephens HF: Z. Fisher, B. Teakle, E. Ford F: P. Curtis, N. Larkey, C. Zurhaar FOLL: T. Xerri, H. Sheezel, J. Simpkin – C I/C: G. Wardlaw, L. Shiels, K. Dawson, R. Hansen Jr, T. Powell EMG: Z. Duursma, W. Phillips, T. Pink

The Lions will be absolutely kicking themselves. Following nine consecutive wins which put them in a position from which the double chance was theirs for the taking, they have lost two in a row in really frustrating fashion. In the first, their failure to capitalise on their early dominance ultimately saw them overrun by the Giants, while last weekend they again gave up a lead and went down by a point to the Magpies. Had they won either of those games, they would currently be sitting in 4th spot, but instead they are a spot further back and need the Cats to lose to the Eagles in Geelong if they are to have any chance of making the top four. With that extremely unlikely, they will likely be playing to secure 5th, and a home final against whoever finishes 8th. If they lose, they could very easily end the round in 8th spot.  
 
The Bombers, meanwhile, have again proven to be just a level below a finals team with a really poor back half of the year, which continued last weekend when they lost by 39 points to the Swans. From second just a few short weeks ago, they have tumbled all the way to 11th, that defeat to Sydney last weekend making it mathematically impossible for them to make the finals. A trip to Brisbane is a very difficult one at the best of times, let alone for a team carrying the disappointment which this team is after another wasted season. Rumours of friction among the playing group after retiring club legend Dyson Heppell wasn’t given an opportunity to play a final game in Melbourne last weekend certainly don’t help if true, and even if he plays this weekend and gives them a reason to compete, they will probably be losing this one comfortably.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Lions 40+	$1.95
	Lions -35.5	$1.91
	Under 171.5 total match points	$1.89

Predicted Squads

Brisbane Lions: B: D. Zorko, H. Andrews - C, B. Starcevich HB: D. Wilmot, R. Lester, D. Joyce C: J. Fletcher, W. Ashcroft, H. McCluggage HF: C. Rayner, J. Daniher, E. Hipwood F: C. Cameron, L. Morris, C. Ah Chee FOLL: O. McInerney, J. Dunkley, L. Neale I/C: K. Lohmann, J. Lyons, Z. Bailey, S. Brain, H. Sharp EMG: D. Robertson, J. Madden, H. Smith

Essendon Bombers: B: J. Kelly, B. McKay, J. Ridley HB: N. Martin, M. Redman, A. McGrath C: A. Perkins, D. Parish, A. Roberts HF: H. Jones, N. Caddy, S. Durham F: K. Langford, J. Stringer, D. Shiel FOLL: S. Draper, J. Caldwell, Z. Merrett - C I/C: B. Hobbs, D. Heppell, J. Gresham, J. Leverde, N. Cox EMG: E. Tsatas, W. Setterfield, P. Wright

The Swans appear to be gradually getting their mojo back, and it couldn’t have happened a moment too soon. With five losses in six games and seemingly headed for another against the Magpies, they have put together a five-quarter stretch which has far more closely resembled the team that they were for the first half or so of the season; coming back to beat the Pies before comfortably accounting for the Bombers last weekend. Those two wins have locked up top spot for them, something which seemed likely to happen a hell of a lot earlier than it has for much of the year. But alas, top of the ladder they are, and with the chance to make their way to the Grand Final without having to leave the SCG. Theoretically there is nothing on the line for them this weekend, but with a week off before finals and then potentially another week off if they win their Qualifying Final, they will still be keen for a confidence-boosting hitout at home on Saturday night.  
 
And it’s not as though the Crows have a whole lot of reason to be enthusiastic about this affair either. They have endured a really disappointing season and a 22-point Showdown loss was probably a good representation of their year, in which they will finish 15th with more than a game separating them from the teams either side of them on the ladder. All is not completely lost for them; a percentage of over 100% despite an 8-13 record is a good indication of the reality that they are a lot better than their win/loss record suggests, and it would be no great surprise to see them bounce back emphatically next season. As for this weekend, however, it’s hard to imagine them putting their best foot forward. Ultimately this game is a dead rubber, but a strong performance would still be very welcome up in Sydney, and as they steel themselves for a Premiership tilt, expect them to win this one relatively comfortably.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Swans to win	$1.34
	Swans -20.5	$1.91
	Swans 25+	$2.10

Predicted Squads

Sydney Swans: B: D. Rampe, T. McCartin, N. Blakey HB: L. Melican, H. Cunningham, O. Florent C: J. Lloyd, C. Mills - C, E. Gulden HF: L. Parker, H. McLean, J. Jordon F: L. McDonald, J. Amartey, W. Hayward FOLL: B. Grundy, I. Heeney, J. Rowbottom I/C: M. Roberts, B. Campbell, C. Cleary, T. Adams, Co. Warner EMG: A. Francis, P. Ladhams, C. Mitchell

Adelaide Crows: B: M. Michalanney, M. Keane, M. Hinge HB: H. Bond, N. Murray, J. Worrell C: B. Keays, R. Laird, L. Sholl HF: D. Curtin, R. Thilthorpe, B. Dowling F: S. Berry, D. Fogarty, J. Rachele FOLL: R. O’Brien, J. Dawson - C, M. Crouch I/C: L. Nankervis, L. Gollant, J. Soligo, L. Murphy, Z. Taylor EMG: C. Jones, B. Dowling, J. Borlase

Super Sunday kicks off with the Bulldogs hosting the Giants in the only game for the round in which both teams currently occupy positions in the top eight. And there is plenty on the line for both of them. The Bulldogs still stand to potentially miss the finals if they lose this game, and if they do they will have to wait for the final match of the day to see if the Dockers can slip past them. On the other end of the coin, with a win they will guarantee themselves a home final – though that probably doesn’t mean much given they will likely play the Hawks or Blues – or even potentially jump to 4th, but that would require both the Cats and the Lions to lose, which is very unlikely. Still, there is plenty on the line for them, and a finals level hitout with significant repercussions will provide a good gauge of their chances of doing damage in September.  
 
The Giants, meanwhile, locked up a spot in the top four with yet another win on the weekend, their 7th in a row, as they held off the Dockers by nine points. They have established themselves as a very real Premiership contender, Jesse Hogan’s continued dominance as the best forward in the league playing no small part in that, and while they are guaranteed a double chance there is still plenty to play for in this game. With a loss, they could theoretically – pending percentages – drop to 4th and have to head to Sydney to play the Swans in week one of the finals. A win, in contrast, could potentially see them jump past the Power into 2nd spot, meaning each of the two Qualifying Finals would be played in Sydney – and potentially both Preliminary Finals too, a dream for the AFL. It’s somewhat unfortunate for everyone except Ballarat residents that this game will be played at Mars Stadium, where wind generally plays a big role and crowds, obviously, are not particularly big. But still, this should be a really entertaining game between two teams more than capable of causing damage in September. Both of them have been playing as well as anyone for the last few weeks and this should be a really close game as a result, but on their (sort of) home soil, the Dogs can just sneak over the line.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Bulldogs to win	$1.44
	Bulldogs 1-39	$2.20
	Bulldogs 1-24	$3.25

Predicted Squads

Western Bulldogs: B: T. Duryea, L. Jones, B. Khamis HB: L. Bramble, R. Lobb, B. Dale C: J. Freijah, A. Treloar, B. Williams HF: E. Richards, A. Naughton, L. McNeil F: C. Weightman, J. Ugle-Hagan, L. Vandermeer FOLL: S. Darcy, M. Bontempelli - C, T. Liberatore I/C: C. Daniel, H. Gallagher, T. English, R. West, J. Macrae EMG: A. Jones, A. Keath, C. Poulter

Greater Western Sydney Giants: B: H. Himmelberg, S. Taylor, C. Idun HB: L. Whitfield, J. Buckley, H. Perryman C: C. Ward, T. Green, F. Callaghan HF: B. Daniels, A. Cadman, T. McMullin F: D. Jones, J. Hogan, T. Greene - C FOLL: K. Briggs, J. Kelly, S. Coniglio I/C: T. Bedford, L. Keeffe, J. Peatling, X. O’Halloran, C. Stone EMG: L. Aleer, H. Thomas, M. Gruzewski

It’s been a topsy turvy season for the Blues. After seemingly establishing themselves as the best team in the league outside of the Swans, they fell off a cliff and for a time looked set to miss the finals. But led by inspirational skipper Patrick Cripps, they secured a vital win over the Eagles last weekend. It might not sound by much, knocking off the Eagles, but they had one of the worst games from an injury standpoint the week prior for a long time and the team they sent to Perth didn’t remotely resemble their best. Many pundits gave West Coast a good chance of winning, a result which would have seen the Blues relying on other results this weekend to make the finals, but with their backs against the walls they put in a terrific performance to win by 65 points. That put them back in the eight thanks to the Dockers’ defeat, but they aren’t home just yet. A loss this weekend will see them reliant on the Power to beat the Dockers in the final game of the year to play finals, something they would, clearly, much rather avoid.  
 
The Saints, meanwhile, have ultimately had a disappointing season after playing finals last year, but even though they won’t be there in September they have at least played out the season really well – something their fans would no doubt have much preferred they do a bit earlier in the year. Since coming back to beat the Swans they have won five of seven games, with last weekend’s effort against the Cats after they went down relatively heavily early on particularly impressive. They have the potential to play spoiler for the Blues and will be undoubtedly keen to round out a strong end to the season with another big win, and with the Blues still set to be severely hampered by injury they are not without a chance. But Carlton last weekend showed that they still have enough to put out on the park to be a solid team, and with their season on the line they can sneak over the line to render the final game of the year a dead rubber from a Fremantle perspective.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Blues to win	$1.70
	Blues -4.5	$1.91
	Blues 1-39	$2.30

Predicted Squads

Carlton Blues: B: B. Kemp, J. Weitering, L. Cowan HB: Le. Young, M. McGovern, N. Newman C: J. Binns, P. Cripps - C, B. Acres HF: O. Hollands, H. McKay, Z. Williams F: C. Curnow, M. Kennedy, J. Motlop FOLL: M. Pittonet, S. Walsh, G. Hewett I/C: A. Cincotta, C. Lord, J. Carroll, M. Owies, E. Hollands EMG: H. Lemmey, B. Wilson, D. Akuei 

St. Kilda Saints: B: J. Battle, D. Howard, C. Wilkie HB: N. Wanganeen-Milera, J. Sinclair, L. Stocker C: M. Phillipou, Z. Jones, R. Byrnes HF: M. Wood, J. Higgins, M. Owens F: D. Butler, T. Membrey, C. Sharman FOLL: R. Marshall, J. Steele - C, H. Clark I/C: P. Dow, A. Schoenmaker, D. Wilson, J. Webster, H. Garcia EMG: B. Paton, T. Campbell, A. McLennan

Pending other results, this game could be an absolute must-watch, or a little bit of a fizzler. The Dockers’ finals hopes are riding on the results of others, with them needing either the Bulldogs, Hawks or Blues to lose to give them a chance of jumping into the eight. It’s a shame for Fremantle, who at times have looked like a legitimate contender and, with the ladder so close, could have very easily finished the year in the top four. Unfortunately, a raft of close losses throughout the year have likely proved fatal to their season, last week being another example. They were competitive with the Giants all game but ultimately went down by 11 points, having lost by the same margin to the Cats the week prior and the Bombers by just one point the week before that. Though their performance is to some extent swept under the rug in Melbourne, this is actually a pretty good team, and missing the finals would be a big waste of their season.  
 
The Power have gone the opposite way over recent weeks. Sitting below the Dockers for large parts of the season, they have won their last five games to lock up a top four spot, and with a win here can more than likely secure 2nd spot and a home Qualifying Final as a result. Unfortunately they will have to play it, and likely the rest of the season, without Dan Houston, who is set to be rubbed out for a significant period of time for an uncharacteristic hit on Izak Rankine in the Power’s 22-point Showdown win. This is an interesting game; though it is 9th vs 2nd as we enter the round, there is not realistically all that much separating these two teams and it wouldn’t have taken a whole lot for those positions to essentially be reversed. The expectations entering this game will change drastically depending on prior results; if any of the Dogs, Hawks or Blues lose, the Dockers should be favourites to win this game on their home turf, even against a team of the quality of the Power, and if they are not that will present as good value. But if this game is a dead rubber for them, then it’s hard to see them getting over the line against a Power team with a little bit to play for. That makes it tough to make a tip now, but with all the teams the Dockers need to lose unlikely to do so, the Power are good value as an early week underdog.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Power to win	$2.00
	Power +2.5	$1.91
	Power 1-39	$2.55

Predicted Squads

Fremantle Dockers: B: L. Ryan, J. Draper, B. Cox HB: B. Walker, H. Chapman, J. Clark C: J. O’Meara, H. Young, J. Sharp HF: B. Banfield, S. Switkowski, M. Frederick F: J. Amiss, J. Treacy, L. Jackson FOLL: S. Darcy, C. Serong - C, A. Brayshaw I/C: N. Fyfe, M. Johnson, C. Wagner, S. Sturt, N. O’Driscoll EMG: K. Worner, N. Erasmus, M. Walters

Port Adelaide Power: B: La. Jones, B. Zerk-Thatcher, M. Bergman HB: L. Evans, A. Aliir, D. Houston C: J. Burgoyne, O. Wines, W. Drew HF: D. Byrne-Jones, E. Ratugolea, W. Rioli F: T. Boak, C. Dixon, C. Rozee – C FOLL: J. Sweet, J. Horne-Francis, Z. Butters I/C: M. Georgiades, K. Farrell, J. Mead, F. Evans, T. Marshall EMG: J. McEntee, W. Lorenz, D. Visentini

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