Round 23 started and finished in thrilling fashion, with the Storm flexing their collective muscle with a brilliant two-point win over the Panthers on Thursday night, before the Sharks collected a pivotal extra time win to virtually end the Knights season on Sunday. Wedged in between were a few more one-sided results, with most of the other likely finalists picking up easy wins including the Roosters, Bulldogs and Cowboys. With three weeks to go the ladder is beginning to take shape; seven finalists are virtually locked in, but spots in the top four could still change while 8th position is very much up for grabs. Things can change significantly in the space of just one week, though this weekend each of the top seven should really be picking up the points. The third last round of the season kicks off with the Sea Eagles heading to Leichhardt Oval for a must-win game against the Tigers, and below we take a look in detail at that game, and the seven which follow it, in Round 25.
NRL 2024 Round 25
Wests Tigers vs Manly Sea Eagles
There has not been a whole lot to celebrate for the Tigers this year, but last weekend they picked up a rare win when they knocked off the Rabbitohs by two points. That was their fifth of the year, though it had no bearing on their spot on the ladder – they remain dead last. They have scored the least points in the league and conceded the most, and while they did surpass their win total from each of the past two years with last weekend’s win, it’s still not exactly been a season to write home about. That win was their first since June, when they won in consecutive weeks, but that is unlikely to happen this time around.
The Sea Eagles have been solid all year and are in good form at the right time of the season. Their 24-10 win over the Warriors last weekend was their fifth in six weeks, the only loss in that time coming by just four points to the Roosters, so it’s hard to see them dropping this one particularly given its significance. The Sea Eagles currently sit in 6th but the Sharks are still just barely in their reach in 4th if they can win all three of their remaining games. On the other side of the coin, with just half a game separating them from 7th they could very easily lose their grip on a home Elimination Final over the next couple of weeks. That would be significant given how good they have been at home and how average they have been away this year, but despite their struggles away from Manly they should be good enough to win this one relatively easily.
Predicted Squads
Wests Tigers: 1. Heath Mason 2. Luke Laulilii 3. Solomona Faataape 4. Adam Doueihi 5. Charlie Staines 6. Lachlan Galvin 7. Aidan Sezer 8. Stefano Utoikamanu 9. Api Koroisau 10. David Klemmer 11. Alex Seyfarth 12. Samuela Fainu 13. Isaiah Papali'i 14. Tallyn Da Silva 15. Sione Fainu 16. Reuben Porter 17. Alex Twal
Manly Sea Eagles: 1. Tom Trbojevic 2. Jason Saab 3. Tommy Talau 4. Reuben Garrick 5. Lehi Hopoate 6. Luke Brooks 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Taniela Paseka 9. Lachlan Croker 10. Josh Aloiai 11. Haumole Olakau'atu 12. Ben Trbojevic 13. Jake Trbojevic 14. Gordon Chan Kum Tong 15. Ethan Bullemor 16. Nathan Brown 17. Tolutau Koula
New Zealand Warriors vs Canterbury Bulldogs
The Warriors’ disappointing season continued last weekend, with their loss to the Sea Eagles their third in a row and fifth in six games to take their record to 8-1-13 a year after they made the Preliminary Final. In fairness they have suffered plenty of close losses over the past few weeks which have put paid to their finals chances, but nonetheless they have not looked good enough to finish in the top eight for much of the year. Incidentally, one of those aforementioned tight losses came to the team they will play this weekend, who holds a similar mantle to what the Warriors held last year as one of the most improved in the league this year.
After a slow first fortnight the Bulldogs have played consistently well with virtually no exceptions, and continued that with another really strong win last weekend. They knocked off the Dolphins by 20 points to make it four wins on the trot, though with the Sharks’ resurgence in form they remain just outside of the top four. But keep winning, and they will give themselves a chance of grabbing that spot just in the nick of time. The Bulldogs are just a game behind the Sharks, and though they will need to make up a bit of points difference too they are still capable of closing that gap. The Bulldogs’ home and away form has been notable this year – they are 10-0 at home and 2-8 on the road – but a lot of those away losses have been close and the two wins have come in their last two away games – one by 25 points against the Broncos, one by 18 against the Dragons. They should be good enough to make it three away wins in a row this weekend against a Warriors team with nothing of note to play for.
Predicted Squads
New Zealand Warriors: 1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 3. Adam Pompey 4. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck 5. Marcelo Montoya 6. Luke Metcalf 7. Shaun Johnson 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Freddy Lussick 10. Mitch Barnett 11. Marata Niukore 12. Kurt Capewell 13. Dylan Walker 14. Chanel Harris-Tavita 15. Tom Ale 16. Jazz Tevaga 17. Jackson Ford
Canterbury Bulldogs: 1. Connor Tracey 2. Jacob Kiraz 3. Bronson Xerri 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Matt Burton 7. Toby Sexton 8. Josh Curran 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Sam Hughes 11. Viliame Kikau 12. Jacob Preston 13. Kurt Mann 14. Bailey Hayward 15. Kurtis Morrin 16. Harry Hayes 17. Jaeman Salmon
Brisbane Broncos vs Parramatta Eels
Two games out with three to play, the Broncos’ finals chances are very much on life support. But a win against the Cowboys followed by the free points with the bye have kept them just barely in the hunt, and there is every chance that they will close the gap on 8th this weekend. They face the 16th placed Eels in Brisbane while the Dragons, who currently occupy 8th, face the Sharks (and the Dolphins face the Storm) so if all results fall the way the Broncos want they will be just a game out of the top eight. What’s more, with a far superior points difference to the Dragons, they could theoretically be sitting in 8th with a week still to spare. Of course, they do still have to get the job done this weekend, but if they fail to do so they don’t deserve to play finals anyway.
The Eels have had a tumultuous season, continuing their tumble down the ladder to find themselves locked in the bottom two alongside the Tigers. They have barely won since splitting their first six games at three wins apiece, a trend which continued last weekend when they were pumped to the tune of 24 points by the Roosters. Not a particularly good team at the best of times, they have little to play for and will be pretty keen for this season to wind up, so while the Broncos are far from their devastating best at the moment, this should be a relatively easy kill for the home side as they look to keep their season alive.
Predicted Squads
Brisbane Broncos: 1. Tristan Sailor 2. Josiah Karapani 3. Kotoni Staggs 4. Deine Mariner 5. Jesse Arthars 6. Josh Rogers 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Corey Jensen 9. Billy Walters 10. Xavier Willison 11. Brendan Piakura 12. Jordan Riki 13. Patrick Carrigan 14. Blake Mozer 15. Kobe Hetherington 16. Corey Oates 17. Martin Taupau
Parramatta Eels: 1. Clint Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Will Penisini 4. Blaize Talagi 5. Sean Russell 6. Dylan Brown 7. Daejarn Asi 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Brendan Hands 10. Joe Ofahengaue 11. Shaun Lane 12. Bryce Cartwright 13. Ryan Matterson 14. Joey Lussick 15. Kelma Tuilagi 16. Dan Keir 17. Makahesi Makatoa
- As good as the Storm are looking, the Dolphins don’t often get blown out by the kind of margin the bookies are suggesting is likely for this weekend’s game, with only three defeats over 16 points or more this year – the line is set at 15.5.
- The Roosters are the highest scoring team in the league by some way and four of their last five games have seen at least 52 points scored in total, and given the Titans have conceded 32 points to the Dragons and 44 to the Sharks in the past fortnight, this should be another high scoring game.
- The Bulldogs have won four games on the trot and three of those by at least 18 points.
Multi of the Week
| Legs | Odds |
| Dolphins +15.5 | $1.90 |
| Titans vs Roosters over 53.5 total match points | $1.85 |
| Bulldogs 13+ | $2.75 |
| Bet $10 for $96.66 with PlayUp | |
Canberra Raiders vs Penrith Panthers
Theoretically the Raiders are still in the finals hunt, but sport isn’t played in theory and reality tells a whole different story. Three consecutive losses have put them two games out of the eight with three to play, and with a dreadful points difference they won’t be making up that gap. And even if they were a little closer, their performances over the past fortnight suggest that they simply aren’t good enough anyway; a 22-point loss to the Sea Eagles a couple of weeks ago was bad enough, but they were terrible against the Cowboys last weekend, going down 42-4, and it does not get any easier this weekend when they take on the Panthers.
Penrith will, at least, be without Nathan Cleary – who has fortunately been cleared to return by finals time with a shoulder injury – but they have played plenty of this season without him and have more than proven that they are still perhaps the best team in it in his absence. They played out a thrilling, potential Grand Final preview against the Storm last Thursday, ultimately losing that one 24-22 – a disappointing result since they could have all but secured their spot in the top two with a win. They are now just a game clear of the Roosters – who have a superior points difference – and so need to keep winning, to stay in 2nd, and they should be able to do that relatively easily against the struggling Raiders this Saturday.
Predicted Squads
Canberra Raiders: 1. Kaeo Weekes 2. Jordan Rapana 3. Matthew Timoko 4. Sebastian Kris 5. Xavier Savage 6. Ethan Strange 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Josh Papali’i 9. Tom Starling 10. Joseph Tapine 11. Hudson Young 12. Elliott Whitehead 13. Morgan Smithies 14. Adam Cook 15. Emre Guler 16. Ata Mariota 17. Simi Sasagi
Penrith Panthers: 1. Dylan Edwards 2. Daine Laurie 3. Izack Tago 4. Casey McLean 5. Brian To'o 6. Jack Cole 7. Jarome Luai 8. Moses Leota 9. Trent Toelau 10. James Fisher-Harris 11. Liam Martin 12. Liam Henry 13. Isaah Yeo 14. Luke Sommerton 15. Lindsay Smith 16. Mavrik Geyer 17. Matthew Eisenhuth
Melbourne Storm vs The Dolphins
The Storm are officially tied for Premiership favouritism, after their stirring win over the Panthers in Penrith last Thursday night all but sewed up top spot for them. They were fantastic in that game, and it just went to show just how little there is separating the top three; the Panthers were a sub $3 Premiership favourite prior to the game while the Storm were over $4, and had the home team managed a couple of extra points that gap would likely have widened. Instead, they have joined together in the middle, with the Storm now guaranteed a potential path to the Grand Final without having to leave AAMI Park – not that they didn’t likely have one anyway. They can probably get away with winning just one more game and still finish top, but they will nonetheless be keen to hit the finals running and get a chance for a solid hitout against a good team this weekend.
The Dolphins season is on the brink, with just one game separating them from the Dragons in 8th, though given they have been inside the eight for much of the year they won’t exactly be thrilled with the position in which they find themselves. They have lost four of their last five, and while the first three of those defeats were competitive, they were really disappointing against the impressive Bulldogs last Saturday, going down 30-10. With the Dragons playing the Sharks, there is every chance that the Dolphins could be back inside the top eight if they win this game by the end of the round, but that is a big if. Very few teams this year have come away from AAMI Park with a win – the Dragons, somewhat randomly, being one of them – and that feels unlikely to change this weekend. The Dolphins can be competitive, but the Storm should be too strong.
Predicted Squads
Melbourne Storm: 1. Ryan Papenhuyzen 2. Will Warbrick 3. Jack Howarth 4. Nick Meaney 5. Xavier Coates 6. Cameron Munster 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Nelson Asofa-Solomona 9. Harry Grant 10. Josh King 11. Shawn Blore 12. Eli Katoa 13. Trent Loiero 14. Tyran Wishart 15. Lazarus Vaalepu 16. Tui Kamikamica 17. Alec MacDonald
The Dolphins: 1. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 2. Jamayne Isaako 3. Jake Averillo 4. Herbie Farnworth 5. Jack Bostock 6. Kodi Nikorima 7. Isaiya Katoa 8. Jesse Bromwich 9. Jeremy Marshall-King 10. Tevita Pangai Junior 11. Felise Kaufusi 12. Connelly Lemuelu 13. Max Plath 14. Kenny Bromwich 15. Ray Stone 16. Mark Nicholls 17. Sean O'Sullivan
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Newcastle Knights
After a pivotal Saturday evening clash, Saturday night’s fixture is a bit of a letdown, with two teams that will almost certainly not be playing finals taking to the field. The Rabbitohs definitely won’t be; they are barely limping towards the end of what has been a bizarre season. They started out woefully for ten weeks, only to put together an incredible resurgence over a five-week period, and now fall in a heap again. They have now lost four games on the trot, the latest of which was a two-point defeat to the bottom of the table Tigers, though in fairness to them they do have a pretty hefty injury list.
That means this is a great opportunity for the Knights to bounce back from a heartbreaking extra time loss to the Sharks last week, but unfortunately that defeat likely means it’s too little too late. They are two games behind the Dragons in 8th with three games to play and don’t have a particularly good points difference, so for them to play finals they will need to win all three of their remaining games and hope for plenty of other results to fall their way. It’s safe to say that is pretty unlikely, but they can at least keep those very, very slim hopes alive for another week with a win on Saturday night. Given the Rabbitohs’ recent performances and with so many of their best players out, this should be a victory for the Knights.
Predicted Squads
South Sydney Rabbitohs: 1. Jye Gray 2. Fletcher Myers 3. Taane Milne 4. Jacob Gagai 5. Tyrone Munro 6. Jack Wighton 7. Dion Teaupa 8. Davvy Moale 9. Damien Cook 10. Sean Keppie 11. Keaon Koloamatangi 12. Tallis Duncan 13. Cameron Murray 14. Peter Mamouzelos 15. Jacob Host 16. Thomas Burgess 17. Shaq Mitchell
Newcastle Knights: 1. Kalyn Ponga 2. Fletcher Sharpe 3. Dane Gagai 4. Dylan Lucas 5. Greg Marzhew 6. Jack Cogger 7. Phoenix Crossland 8. Daniel Saifiti 9. Jayden Brailey 10. Leo Thompson 11. Tyson Frizell 12. Kai Pearce-Paul 13. Adam Elliott 14. Will Pryce 15. Mat Croker 16. Jack Hetherington 17. Brodie Jones
Gold Coast Titans vs Sydney Roosters
After winning five games in six weeks, the Titans appeared to be making a remarkable surge towards a potential finals appearance, but a really poor last two weeks has ensured it was all for nought. Their slim finals hopes were likely ended when they lost 44-0 to the Sharks a fortnight ago regardless, but they made sure of that with another poor performance against the Dragons last weekend, losing that game 32-16. With the Dragons sitting in 8th, they could have actually closed the gap between themselves and the finals spot to just a game with a win, but instead they are now three games back and out of the race. Regardless of their situation, however, they were always going to have their work cut out for them this weekend.
The Roosters continued on their merry way last Friday, smacking the Eels by 24 points to make it seven wins in their last eight games. They have had the best points difference in the league for most of the year, showing a greater ability to really pound teams than any other in the league, and that was on full show against the Eels. The highest scoring team in the league by some way, the Panthers’ loss to the Storm means the Roosters are now just a game outside of a top two spot, and with three games they should win to come they will be looking to pile the pressure onto the Panthers over the coming few weeks. They should have no problems doing that with a win over the Titans, and though Gold Coast have generally been competitive this year, the first month of the season notwithstanding, they have fallen in a heap over the past fortnight and with their season now over, this could be another big loss.
Predicted Squads
Gold Coast Titans: 1. Keano Kini 2. Alofiana Khan-Pereira 3. Brian Kelly 4. Phillip Sami 5. Jojo Fifita 6. Jayden Campbell 7. Kieran Foran 8. Mo Fotuaika 9. Sam Verrills 10. Erin Clark 11. David Fifita 12. Beau Fermor 13. Chris Randall 14. AJ Brimson 15. Jaimin Jolliffe 16. Klese Haas 17. Issac Liu
Sydney Roosters: 1. James Tedesco 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Joseph Suaalii 4. Joey Manu 5. Dom Young 6. Luke Keary 7. Sam Walker 8. Spencer Leniu 9. Brandon Smith 10. Lindsay Collins 11. Angus Crichton 12. Sitili Tupouniua 13. Victor Radley 14. Sandon Smith 15. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves 16. Nat Butcher 17. Terrell May
St. George Illawarra Dragons vs Cronulla Sharks
Unlikely as it might seem, the Dragons remain in the box seat to snare the final remaining spot in the top eight. They were really solid in an important game against the Titans last weekend, beating them 32-16 to hang onto their spot in 8th, though with a couple of teams snapping at their heels things could change fairly quickly if they don’t keep winning. Their trend for some time has been to put together one good performance and then struggle mightily the next week, and they will be pretty keen to put a stop to that this weekend. Unfortunately for them, they face a 4th placed Sharks team which is in the midst of a late season resurgence after a really poor extended run of form.
The Sharks have now won three games on the trot, and though the latest wasn’t nearly as dominant as the previous two they did still secure a pivotal two points as they look to lock up the spot in the top four that they have held on to for virtually the entire season. And with the Bulldogs just refusing to lose, they need to keep winning if they are to do that. The Sharks currently hang on to a one-game lead over the Bulldogs in 5th and have a bit of a points difference advantage too – if they lose two of their last three games they’ll probably lose their spot in 4th, while if they lose just one then they will probably but not certainly hang on to it. That means that there is plenty riding on this week’s game for both teams this weekend, but the Sharks are playing reasonably well at the moment and can continue the Dragons topsy turvy run of form by knocking them off on their own home turf.
Predicted Squads
St. George Illawarra Dragons: 1. Tyrell Sloan 2. Zac Lomax 3. Mathew Feagai 4. Max Feagai 5. Christian Tuipulotu 6. Jack Bird 7. Ben Hunt 8. Francis Molo 9. Jacob Liddle 10. Jack de Belin 11. Luciano Leilua 12. Jaydn Su'A 13. Tom Eisenhuth 14. Toby Couchman 15. Ryan Couchman 16. Blake Lawrie 17. Lyhkan King-Togia
Cronulla Sharks: 1. Will Kennedy 2. Sione Katoa 3. Jesse Ramien 4. Kayal Iro 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo 6. Daniel Atkinson 7. Braydon Trindall 8. Toby Rudolf 9. Blayke Brailey 10. Oregon Kaufusi 11. Briton Nikora 12. Teig Wilton 13. Cameron McInnes 14. Jack Williams 15. Sifa Talakai 16. Royce Hunt 17. Braden Hamlin-Uele
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