The final round of the NRL regular season has arrived, and after a wild Round 26 there is still plenty to be decided before the finals begin. There were no less than six upsets across last weekend’s eight games, kicking off with the Cowboys beating the Storm on Thursday night. The Bulldogs finally lost a game, going down comfortably to an impressive Manly in a result which ultimately proved really costly for them given both the Sharks and Roosters, both sitting inside the top four, would go on to lose. Elsewhere, the Dragons probably blew their finals chances by losing to the Eels, while the Dolphins proved they deserve that 8th spot over the Broncos with a dominant win. The top four is now almost certainly decided, though who finishes where within it is not, and further down the ladder the battle for 8th spot is still far from over. Below, we take a look at how the weekend might play out.
NRL 2024 Round 27
Brisbane Broncos vs Melbourne Storm
The opportunity was there for the Broncos to jump into the top eight if they were good enough last weekend, with the Dragons’ loss to the Eels opening the door for them to potentially secure a spot in the finals if they could beat the Dolphins. They could not, and it wasn’t close. In what has been a disappointing year for the reigning Grand Finalists, that was probably the most disappointing performance of the season as they went down 24-6 in the first half and then conceded another three tries without scoring themselves in the second. They fell to 12th as a result, and though they are still just two points outside of the top eight, they would need each of the Dolphins, Knights, Dragons and Raiders to lose to be able to jump inside it – something that won’t be happening given the Dragons and Raiders are playing one another, as are the Dolphins and the Knights.
Predicted Squads
Brisbane Broncos: 1. Tristan Sailor 2. Selwyn Cobbo 3. Josiah Karapani 4. Deine Mariner 5. Jesse Arthars 6. Josh Rogers 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Corey Jensen 9. Billy Walters 10. Payne Haas 11. Jaiyden Hunt 12. Jordan Riki 13. Patrick Carrigan 14. Blake Mozer 15. Kobe Hetherington 16. Ben Te Kura 17. Martin Taupau
Melbourne Storm: 1. Sualauvi Faalogo 2. Will Warbrick 3. Jack Howarth 4. Nick Meaney 5. Grant Anderson 6. Cameron Munster 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Tui Kamikamica 9. Harry Grant 10. Nelson Asofa-Solomona 11. Shawn Blore 12. Eli Katoa 13. Trent Loiero 14. Tyran Wishart 15. Christian Welch 16. Lazarus Vaalepu 17. Alec MacDonald
Wests Tigers vs Parramatta Eels
There is a lot on the line for plenty of teams this weekend, and while it certainly won’t be the game that attracts the most attention, Friday night’s first clash will ultimately determine who finishes the season on the bottom of the ladder. The Tigers have finished on the bottom of the ladder for two consecutive years and have spent much of Benji Marshall’s first year at the helm in 17th too, though this year they have at least jumped from four wins in each of those previous two years up to six with one game to play. They picked up the free points courtesy of the bye last week, keeping them on equal footing with the Eels, who won their sixth game of the year, and with the chance to move up to 16th if they can win this weekend.
The Eels had higher hopes than the Tigers entering this season, but alas, after a 3-3 start they have really struggled to pick up wins. Last year was a welcome exception. In a high-scoring game against the Dragons, who were essentially playing for a spot in the finals, they steamed out to a 26-6 lead in an impressive first half, by four minutes into the second half had extended that to 36-6, and 61 minutes in were up 44-12. Of course, typically that would be more than enough to bank the victory, and as it turned out it was – but only just. The Dragons absolutely stormed home with five tries and 28 points in the last 11 minutes of the game, ultimately falling just four points short of what would have been a remarkable victory. The Eels best in that game would easily beat whatever the Tigers can dish up, but the last ten minutes was pretty damn bad. It’s hard to predict what will happen in a game like this, but the Eels can round out their season with two consecutive wins in a low-scoring affair.
Predicted Squads
Wests Tigers: 1. Heath Mason 2. Luke Laulilii 3. Solomona Faataape 4. Junior Tupou 5. Charlie Staines 6. Lachlan Galvin 7. Latu Fainu 8. Stefano Utoikamanu 9. Api Koroisau 10. David Klemmer 11. Alex Seyfarth 12. Samuela Fainu 13. Isaiah Papali'i 14. Tallyn Da Silva 15. Sione Fainu 16. Fonua Pole 17. Alex Twal
Parramatta Eels: 1. Clint Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Will Penisini 4. Blaize Talagi 5. Jake Tago 6. Dylan Brown 7. Daejarn Asi 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Brendan Hands 10. Shaun Lane 11. Kelma Tuilagi 12. Bryce Cartwright 13. Joe Ofahengaue 14. Joey Lussick 15. Makahesi Makatoa 16. Luca Moretti 17. Wiremu Greig
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Sydney Roosters
The Rabbitohs will be well and truly for their tumultuous season to come to an end, a season which will see them finish in the bottom four and potentially as low as 16th after they entered it with Premiership aspirations. They did have a patch in the middle of the season where they showed glimpses of their best form, but it only lasted a few weeks and the worst version of the Bunnies has well and truly returned since. They have now lost six in a row, three of which have been by 20 or more points including the last two, and they will likely face a similar result this weekend against a Roosters team reeling from a dreadful game last weekend.
With a top two spot and home Qualifying Final theirs for the taking if they could beat the Raiders and the Rabbitohs, the Roosters – the best offensive team in the league – failed to score until the 63rd minute, and though they managed a second late try they ultimately fell two points short. That saw them fall to third behind the Panthers, and unless Penrith loses this weekend the Roosters will remain outside the top two. Making matters worse were ACL injuries to both Sam Walker and Brandon Smith, while Victor Radley and Nat Butcher will also miss time. That game was a big blow to their Premiership chances, but they are still in the mix and will be keen to at least give themselves a chance to jump inside the top two should the Panthers falter. Don’t expect too much from the Rabbitohs in this one, and though the Roosters will be a little short-handed they should be able to record a big win to round out their regular season.
Predicted Squads
South Sydney Rabbitohs: 1. Jye Gray 2. Tyrone Munro 3. Taane Milne 4. Fletcher Myers 5. Jacob Gagai 6. Jack Wighton 7. Cody Walker 8. Davvy Moale 9. Damien Cook 10. Sean Keppie 11. Jacob Host 12. Tallis Duncan 13. Keaon Koloamatangi 14. Peter Mamouzelos 15. Thomas Burgess 16. Siliva Havili 17. Liam Le Blanc
Sydney Roosters: 1. James Tedesco 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Joseph Suaalii 4. Joey Manu 5. Dom Young 6. Luke Keary 7. Sandon Smith 8. Spencer Leniu 9. Connor Watson 10. Lindsay Collins 11. Angus Crichton 12. Sitili Tupouniua 13. Naufahu Whyte 14. Zach Dockar-Clay 15. Siua Wong 16. Blake Steep 17. Terrell May
- The Knights have not beat a single team that is currently inside the top eight since April.
- When the Roosters and Rabbitohs met earlier this year, the Roosters won 48-6, and the Bunnies come into this game having lost five of their last six games by at least 12 points.
- Though the Bulldogs lost at home last week, they are still 10-1 on their home turf this year.
Multi of the Week
| Legs | Odds |
| Dolphins to win | $2.15 |
| Roosters 13+ | $2.05 |
| Bulldogs to win | $1.68 |
| Bet $10 for $74.05 with PlayUp | |
St. George Illawarra Dragons vs Canberra Raiders
There are four teams locked on 28 points sitting from 8th to 11th on the ladder, and two of them will go head to head on Saturday afternoon. But with the Dragons and Raiders having comfortably the worst points differentials out of those four teams, and the Dolphins and the Knights playing one another, the winner of this will need to win by an unrealistic margin to make the finals. For the Dragons, that fact is a massive disappointment given that they sat inside the eight heading into a game against the 16th placed Eels last weekend. They have been erratic all year and that game could hardly have been more symptomatic of that, as they conceded a 44-12 lead only to storm home with five tries in ten minutes and fall just four points short, all but ending their finals chances in the process.
The Raiders, in contrast, have had a terrific last fortnight, but unfortunately it is going to be too little too late for them. With three weeks to go in the season and the Panthers and Roosters to come, they looked likely to miss the top eight by a few games, but consecutive tight wins against two of the best three teams in the league has seen them keep themselves right on the heel of the top eight. As with the Dragons though, the poor points differential that the Raiders have ultimately means that they can’t make the finals barring a miracle – as in, a win by 100+ points, or a draw in the Dolphins vs Knights game. Clearly that is very unlikely, but nonetheless both they and the Dragons will be keen to at least give themselves that most outside of chances heading into the final day of the regular season. The Dragons have been a hard team to pick all year, but after last week’s disappointment and the strong form of the Raiders over the past fortnight, the visitors might be able to just sneak over the line to end their season with three wins in a row.
Predicted Squads
St. George Illawarra Dragons: 1. Tyrell Sloan 2. Zac Lomax 3. Moses Suli 4. Max Feagai 5. Christian Tuipulotu 6. Jack Bird 7. Ben Hunt 8. Francis Molo 9. Jacob Liddle 10. Jack de Belin 11. Luciano Leilua 12. Jaydn Su'A 13. Tom Eisenhuth 14. Toby Couchman 15. Ryan Couchman 16. Raymond Faitala-Mariner 17. Lyhkan King-Togia
Canberra Raiders: 1. Kaeo Weekes 2. Albert Hopoate 3. Matthew Timoko 4. Sebastian Kris 5. Xavier Savage 6. Adam Cook 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Josh Papali’i 9. Tom Starling 10. Joseph Tapine 11. Hudson Young 12. Ata Mariota 13. Morgan Smithies 14. Danny Levi 15. Corey Horsburgh 16. Simi Sasagi 17. Emre Guler
Canterbury Bulldogs vs North Queensland Cowboys
The Bulldogs will be incredibly frustrated by their defeat to the Sea Eagles last weekend. They have done everything they possibly could to work their way into the top four, winning five games in a row and seven of eight heading into last weekend’s game, but with the teams above them winning most weeks they remained a game outside the top four for basically that entire time. At long last they could have jumped into that top four last weekend with both the Roosters and the Sharks losing, but that happened to coincide with them finally losing a game themselves – their first of the year on their home turf. They’ll now need to win, rely on the Sharks losing and make up 68 points to earn the double chance – a very unlikely set of circumstances – while if they lose this game they will drop below the Cowboys, and all the way down to 7th if the Sea Eagles win too. That feels far too low for a team which has played as well as they have this year, but it’s well and truly on the cards given the form of the Cowboys.
The Cowboys have won five of their last six games to move into 6th spot and within striking distance of the Bulldogs, and over their last two games they have beaten the Raiders by 38 points, and last week knocked off the Storm by eight. They are in some strong form at the right time of year, with that form having been kickstarted by a two-point win six weeks ago against the team that they play this weekend in the Bulldogs. They are more than capable of winning this one too, though the key difference was that that game was played in North Queensland. The Bulldogs, as mentioned, lost at home last weekend, but they have been just about the toughest trip in the league this year, and having won their first ten at home it’s hard to imagine them losing two in a row there. This should be a tight and tense game with plenty on the line, but the Bulldogs can get the job done by a few points.
Predicted Squads
Canterbury Bulldogs: 1. Connor Tracey 2. Jeral Skelton 3. Jacob Kiraz 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Drew Hutchison 7. Toby Sexton 8. Max King 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Sam Hughes 11. Viliame Kikau 12. Jacob Preston 13. Jaeman Salmon 14. Bailey Hayward 15. Kurtis Morrin 16. Harry Hayes 17. Josh Curran
North Queensland Cowboys: 1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Kyle Feldt 3. Valentine Holmes 4. Villiami Vailea 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Tom Dearden 7. Jake Clifford 8. Jordan McLean 9. Reece Robson 10. Jason Taumalolo 11. Heilum Luki 12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Reuben Cotter 14. Sam McIntyre 15. Harrison Edwards 16. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki 17. Griffin Neame
Penrith Panthers vs Gold Coast Titans
After losing two games in a row, first to the Storm and then to the Raiders, the Panthers looked to have lost a handle on their spot in the top two, but it all looks like it’s going to work out for the three-time reigning Premiers. They bounced back with a comfortable 22-point win over the Rabbitohs last weekend, but more importantly than that, both the Sharks and the Roosters lost to enable the Panthers to jump back to second spot. All they need to do now is knock off the Titans, and they will end the season in 2nd and earn a home Qualifying Final – giving them a potential path to the Grand Final without having to leave their home turf. And given the Titans recent form, they should have no problems doing just that.
The Titans have been really impressive at times this year, but once their finals hopes evaporated so too, seemingly, did their motivation. They have lost four games on the trot, and they have not been competitive losses. It started with a 44-0 loss to the Sharks a month ago, and after two more heavy defeats were again pounded last week – this time by the Knights. They went down 36-14 in that game, making their average losing margin over the past four weeks 27 points. There is a good chance that the Panthers hand them a defeat of a similar magnitude in this game. Penrith doesn’t need to win by any particular amount – they just need to win – but even in second gear they should be able to notch up a pretty comfortable win to head into the finals with their tails up.
Predicted Squads
Penrith Panthers: 1. Dylan Edwards 2. Sunia Turuva 3. Izack Tago 4. Paul Alamoti 5. Brian To'o 6. Brad Schneider 7. Jarome Luai 8. Moses Leota 9. Mitch Kenny 10. James Fisher-Harris 11. Luke Garner 12. Liam Martin 13. Isaah Yeo 14. Trent Toelau 15. Lindsay Smith 16. Liam Henry 17. Matthew Eisenhuth
Gold Coast Titans: 1. Keano Kini 2. Alofiana Khan-Pereira 3. Brian Kelly 4. Phillip Sami 5. Jojo Fifita 6. Jayden Campbell 7. Kieran Foran 8. Mo Fotuaika 9. Sam Verrills 10. Jaimin Jolliffe 11. David Fifita 12. Beau Fermor 13. Chris Randall 14. Josiah Pahulu 15. Isaac Liu 16. Erin Clark 17. Klese Haas
Manly Sea Eagles vs Cronulla Sharks
Had the Sea Eagles not lost to the Tigers a fortnight ago, this would be a game to determine who finishes inside the top four. That result was the solitary blemish in what has otherwise been a really impressive last month for the Sea Eagles, a period during which they’ve pumped the Raiders and Warriors, lost to the Tigers, then last weekend did what no other team has managed all year and beat the Bulldogs on their own home turf. They still sit in 7th, but with the Cowboys and Bulldogs playing one another, a win here would see them jump inside the top six and earn a home Elimination Final. Unfortunately for them, however, they are a game and a half behind the Sharks in 4th as a result of that Tigers loss, and subsequently have no chance of earning the double chance.
Barring a disaster the Sharks should stay in 4th spot – they would need to lose this game by a lot to drop – and theoretically they could jump as high as 2nd if both the Panthers and the Roosters lose, though that is extremely unlikely. So while theoretically they could either finish as high as 2nd or drop outside the top four, it’s very probably that they will simply remain in 4th and end up playing the Storm. The Sea Eagles realistically have more to play for, with a home Elimination Final against either the Cowboys or the Bulldogs a far more attractive proposition than having to travel to play them, and with their recent form and the fact that they are 9-2 on their home turf, they can secure another really solid win in a tight game.
Predicted Squads
Manly Sea Eagles: 1. Tolutau Koula 2. Tommy Talau 3. Ben Trbojevic 4. Reuben Garrick 5. Lehi Hopoate 6. Luke Brooks 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Taniela Paseka 9. Lachlan Croker 10. Matt Lodge 11. Haumole Olakau'atu 12. Karl Lawton 13. Jake Trbojevic 14. Gordon Chan Kum Tong 15. Josh Aloiai 16. Ethan Bullemor 17. Nathan Brown
Cronulla Sharks: 1. Will Kennedy 2. Sione Katoa 3. Jesse Ramien 4. Kayal Iro 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo 6. Nicho Hynes 7. Braydon Trindall 8. Toby Rudolf 9. Blayke Brailey 10. Oregon Kaufusi 11. Briton Nikora 12. Teig Wilton 13. Cameron McInnes 14. Jack Williams 15. Royce Hunt 16. Braden Hamlin-Uele 17. Thomas Hazelton
Newcastle Knights vs The Dolphins
This couldn’t have been better fixtured, with the game which will almost certainly determine our last finalist scheduled as the last of the regular season, kicking off at 4.05pm on Sunday afternoon. The Knights have spent much of the season outside the top eight looking in, but a cushy draw which has seen them beat each of the Tigers, Rabbitohs and Titans over the past month has seen them move to just points difference outside the eight with a game to go. And with the only loss in that period coming by just a point to the Sharks, they could very easily be sitting in 8th already – not that it would actually make much difference given they have a significantly worse points difference than the Dolphins, and the only way that it will be relevant is if this game is a draw.
The Dolphins, in contrast, spent a large part of the year inside the top eight but fell out in the back half of the season, but a terrific win last weekend in essentially the first of two Elimination Final in as many weeks has put their destiny in their own hands. After two consecutive losses, the second of which was a debilitating 48-6 loss to the Storm, they ran absolutely rampant against a hapless Broncos outfit last weekend, putting up 40 points and conceding just 6 to jump back inside the top eight. Now, it all comes down to this. In the event of a draw these two teams will be overtaken by whoever wins out of the Dragons and Raiders, but assuming one of them secures the two points, that team will play finals. Expect a finals-like intensity in this game given that it is, essentially, an Elimination Final, and it may very well come down to the wire. The Dolphins have been a little erratic of late, but they were terrific last week, and the Knights haven’t beaten anyone of much substance for some time. In just their second year in the league, the Dolphins can lock up their first ever finals appearance with a thrilling win to conclude the 2024 NRL regular season.
Predicted Squads
Newcastle Knights: 1. Kalyn Ponga 2. Fletcher Sharpe 3. Dane Gagai 4. Bradman Best 5. Greg Marzhew 6. Jack Cogger 7. Phoenix Crossland 8. Daniel Saifiti 9. Jayden Brailey 10. Leo Thompson 11. Tyson Frizell 12. Kai Pearce-Paul 13. Adam Elliott 14. Will Pryce 15. Dylan Lucas 16. Jack Hetherington 17. Brodie Jones
The Dolphins: 1. Tai Fuller 2. Jamayne Isaako 3. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 4. Herbie Farnworth 5. Jack Bostock 6. Jake Averillo 7. Kodi Nikorima 8. Jesse Bromwich 9. Jeremy Marshall-King 10. Tevita Pangai Junior 11. Oryn Keeley 12. Connelly Lemuelu 13. Max Plath 14. Isaiya Katoa 15. Mark Nicholls 16. Kenny Bromwich 17. Ray Stone
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