NRL 2024 Round 5 – Betting tips & Predictions

Round 4 of the 2024 NRL season was a tight one, with five of the eight games which took place over Easter weekend being decided by eight points or less. And with the Broncos bringing the Cowboys back to earth with a thumping win, there are no longer any undefeated teams and just one game separates first from 13th. As has been the case most rounds so far this year, Round 5 will kick off with another game between two Premiership contenders when the Storm welcome the Broncos to AAMI Park, and while that looms as the game of the round, others which will carry plenty of intrigue include the Rabbitohs vs the Warriors, the Sea Eagles vs the Panthers, and, bizarrely, a top six clash between the Dolphins and the Tigers (!!). Take a look at our previews for all eight games set to take place over the weekend below. 

Neither the Storm or the Broncos have had an easy start to the season, and it doesn’t get any easier for them this weekend. The Storm have so far had to face the Panthers, Warriors and the Knights – three of the top five teams from last year – before enjoying a hard earned bye, and they have handled the challenge with aplomb, winning two of those games and their only loss coming by just two points to the Knights. The Broncos, meanwhile, have been handed an equally difficult hand by the NRL, having played the Roosters, Rabbitohs, Panthers and Cowboys through the first four weeks of the season. Two losses through the first three of those games wasn’t the ideal start, particularly given the nature of their Round 3 defeat to the Broncos, but they bounced back in emphatic fashion last weekend, playing the kind of footy that got them through to last year’s Grand Final and beating the undefeated Cowboys 38-12. Things will invariably get easier for both of these teams from a fixturing perspective, but even with their tough draws they have both shown that as expected, they are two of the best teams in the league. This should be a high intensity and high quality game between two sides who could very easily be meeting each other deep in this year’s finals series, but early in the season it’s the Storm who have displayed the more consistent form, particularly on their home soil. The Broncos were brilliant away from home last season, going 11-1 on the road, but already they have exceeded that number of away losses in 2024. Heading to AAMI Park for one of the toughest challenges in the NRL, they will have their work cut out avoiding a third straight road loss in a tight, low scoring affair. 

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Storm to win	$1.55
	Storm 1-12	$2.95
	Under 39.5 total match points	$1.90

Predicted Squads

Melbourne Storm : 1. Ryan Papenhuyzen 2. Will Warbrick 3. Reimis Smith 4. Nick Meaney 5. Xavier Coates 6. Cameron Munster 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Tui Kamikamica 9. Harry Grant 10. Josh King 11. Joe Chan 12. Eli Katoa 13. Trent Loiero 14. Tyran Wishart 15. Christian Welch 16. Chris Lewis 17. Nelson Asofa-Solomona

Brisbane Broncos : 1.Tristan Sailor 2. Jesse Arthars 3. Kotoni Staggs 
4. Selwyn Cobbo 5. Deine Mariner 6. Ezra Mam 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Corey Jensen 9. Billy Walters 10. Fletcher Baker 11. Jaiyden Hunt  12. Jordan Riki 13. Patrick Carrigan 14. Tyson Smoothy 15. Xavier Willison 16. Kobe Hetherington 17. Corey Oates

2024 is a season in which the Bulldogs simply have to show some long-awaited improvement, but they could hardly have started the season in worse fashion with two dreadful losses against first the Eels and then the Sharks. Since then, however, they have shown the kind of resolve which has been notably absent from this team for too long, bouncing back with a 32-0 win over the hapless Titans before getting within four points of the Rabbitohs last Friday night. But while they’ve certainly been a lot better over the past fortnight, the fact remains that they are 1-3 and look likely to fall to 1-4 up against the Roosters this Friday night. The Roosters are only 2-2 through their first four games of the season, but they have been pretty solid as they attempt to bounce back into Premiership contention following a disappointing 2023. They’ve already knocked off the Broncos and absolutely trounced the Rabbitohs a fortnight ago, though a six point loss to the Panthers last weekend probably flattered them after they scored two late tries to make the scoreboard look a little more competitive. For the most part, however, they have looked like the kind of team most expected them to be last year and expect them to be once again in 2024. Based on the last couple of weeks the Bulldogs should be able to avoid a blowout this weekend, but the Roosters should nonetheless be too strong and can notch up their third win of the season. 

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Roosters to win	$1.33
	Roosters 1-12	$2.90
	Over 39.5 total match points	$1.90

Predicted Squads

Canterbury Bulldogs: 1. Blake Taaffe 2. Blake Wilson 3. Jacob Kiraz 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Connor Tracey 6. Matt Burton 7. Drew Hutchison 8. Max King 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Liam Knight 11. Viliame Kikau 
12. Josh Curran 13. Jaeman Salmon 14. Kurt Mann 15. Sam Hughes 16. Poasa Faamausili 17. Chris Patolo

Sydney Roosters : 1. James Tedesco 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Joseph Suaalii 4. Joey Manu 5. Dom Young 6. Luke Keary 7. Sam Walker 8. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves 9. Brandon Smith 10. Terrell May 11. Nat Butcher 12. Sitili Tupouniua 13. Victor Radley 14. Connor Watson 15. Naufahu Whyte 16. Egan Butcher 17. Angus Crichton

After such an exhilarating end to the 2023 season, 2024 hasn’t started quite as the Knights would have hoped with three losses from their first four games. But while their opening round defeat to the Raiders was disappointing, they’ve been decent enough since then, their losses coming by one point to the Cowboys and last week eight points to the to the Warriors in New Zealand, while the week prior to that they knocked off the Storm. And after a reasonably tough fixture to start the year, they now enter what should really be a fruitful two months for them which includes two games against the Bulldogs and matches against the Tigers, Titans, Dolphins, and this week the Dragons. St. George Illawarra, widely expected to finish right near the bottom of the ladder again this year, have put in a couple of performances reflective of that expectation so far, not least a 38-0 loss to the Dolphins. On the other side of the coin, however, they knocked off the Titans by 24 points in Round 1 and, even more impressively, last week knocked off the Sea Eagles by eight points. At 2-2 they’ve had a reasonable start to the season for a side with limited hopes for the year, but though the Knights haven’t been the team they were late last year so far in 2024, travelling to Newcastle is still likely to be a tough task this season, and it’s hard to imagine the Dragons being up to the challenge. 

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Knights to win	$1.50
	Knights -5.5	$1.91
	Knights 13+	$2.80

Predicted Squads

Newcastle Knights : 1. Kalyn Ponga 2. Tom Jenkins 3. Dane Gagai 4. Bradman Best 5. Enari Tuala 6. Tyson Gamble 7. Jack Cogger 8. Jacob Saifiti 9. Phoenix Crossland 10. Leo Thompson 11. Tyson Frizell 12. Kai Pearce-Paul 13. Adam Elliott 14. Jayden Brailey 15. Daniel Saifiti 16. Jack Hetherington 17. Mat Croker

St. George Illawarra Dragons: 1. Tyrell Sloan 2. Zac Lomax 3. Moses Suli 4. Jack Bird 5. Mikaele Ravalawa 6. Kyle Flanagan 7. Ben Hunt 8. Francis Molo 9. Jacob Liddle 10. Blake Lawrie 11. Luciano Leilua 12. Jaydn Su'A 13. Raymond Faitala-Mariner 14. Jesse Marschke 15. Jack de Belin 16. Tom Eisenhuth  17. Hame Sele

• Of the Cowboys’ four games so far this season, three have seen at least 50 points scored. The Titans, meanwhile, have conceded at least 28 points in all three of their matches. 
• Each of the Panthers’ three wins this season have been by at least six points, while of their 21 victories last season just two were by less than the 3.5-point line set by betting sites for this game. 
• The Knights went 9-3 at home during the home and away season last year. Every one of those wins came by at least eight points, while six of the last seven of them were by at least 19 points.  

Multi of the Week

Finally, the Bunnies are on the board. It took a little longer than they’d hoped, after a disappointing start to the season which saw them lose reasonably close games to first the Sea Eagles then the Broncos, before being smashed in humiliating fashion by the Roosters in Round 3. After that start they simply had to beat the Bulldogs in Round 4, and though they did get the job done they were far from convincing, winning by just four points. And things get tougher again this weekend when they take on a Warriors team which has bounced back from consecutive tight losses to start the season with two wins in a row over the past fortnight. The ceiling for both of these teams is a top four finish and Premiership contention, but equally neither is guaranteed to play finals in what is a really competitive league, and indifferent starts to the season – particularly for the Rabbitohs – certainly do not help. It’s hard to tip the Bunnies after the form that they have displayed so far this season, but just maybe that win against the Bulldogs – unconvincing though it was – will be the confidence booster that they needed to kickstart their season. This game could go either way, but on their home turf the Rabbitohs can sneak over their line to notch up a second consecutive win, and send the Warriors to a 2-3 start to the season in the process. 

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Rabbitohs to win	$2.05
	Rabbitohs +1.5	$1.91
	Rabbitohs 1-12	$3.20

Predicted Squads

South Sydney Rabbitohs: 1. Latrell Mitchell  2. Jye Gray  3. Jack Wighton 4. Isaiah Tass 5. Taane Milne 6. Cody Walker 7. Dean Hawkins 8. Tevita Tatola 9. Damien Cook 10. Tom Burgess 11. Keaon Koloamatangi 
12. Jacob Host 13. Cam Murray 14. Siliva Havili 15. Tallis Duncan   16. Michael Chee Kam 17. Davvy Moale

New Zealand Warriors: 1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 3. Rocco Berry 4. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck 5. Marcelo Montoya 6. Chanel Harris-Tavita 7. Shaun Johnson 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 
9. Wayde Egan 10. Mitch Barnett 11. Jackson Ford 12. Kurt Capewell 13. Tohu Harris 14. Freddy Lussick 15. Marata Niukore 16. Bunty Afoa 17. Jazz Tevaga

Admittedly it’s only been four rounds, but the respective seasons of these two teams have already taken on completely contrasting paths. The Sea Eagles started the year in brilliant fashion, knocking off the Rabbitohs in Las Vegas before beating the Roosters by seven points the week after. The next week they were handed their first defeat of the season, and though a four-point loss in Parramatta was hardly a disaster, their eight-point loss at the hands of the Dragons last weekend certainly was. The Panthers, meanwhile, started their year without scoring in their opening game of the season against the Storm, but they’ve looked strong since then, beating the Eels, Broncos and then Roosters in the last three weeks, with the 22-point win over Brisbane particularly impressive. There is no doubting that they are a little thinner after a few departures in the off-season, and a hamstring injury to Nathan Cleary which will keep him out until Round 7 certainly doesn’t help. But they have thus far looked more than capable of continuing to be a dominant force in the league even without the likes of Stephen Crichton and Jaeman Salmon, while they managed to cover the loss of Cleary in their first game without him last weekend pretty comfortably. The Sea Eagles should be expecting to compete for a spot in the finals this season and at their best can make this a competitive game, but it’s impossible to go past the three-time reigning Premiers to make it four wins in a row.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Panthers to win	$1.65
	Panthers -3.5	$1.91
	Under 39.5 total match points	$1.90

Predicted Squads

Manly Sea Eagles : 1. Tom Trbojevic 2. Jaxson Paulo 3. Tolu Koula 4. Reuben Garrick 5. Tommy Talau 6. Luke Brooks 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Taniela Paseka 9. Lachlan Croker 10. Josh Aloiai 11. Haumole Olakau’atu  12. Ben Trbojevic 13. Jake Trbojevic 14. Karl Lawton  15. Corey Waddell 16. Nathan Brown 17. Toafofoa Sipley

Penrith Panthers : 1. Dylan Edwards 2. Sunia Turuva 3. Izack Tago 
4. Taylan May 5. Brian To'o 6. Jarome Luai  7. Brad Schneider 8. Moses Leota 9. Mitch Kenny 10. Lindsay Smith 11. Luke Garner 12. Liam Martin 
13. Isaah Yeo 14. Daine Laurie 15. Matt Eisenhuth 16. Liam Henry 17. Mavrik Geyer

The Dolphins vs the Tigers isn’t exactly a game which will inspire neutrals to stay home on the couch this Saturday night, but courtesy of unexpectedly strong starts to the season by both of them, there may be a little more intrigue surrounding this game than there otherwise would have been. The Dolphins were no match for the Cowboys in their first game of the season, going down by 25 points, but since then they have played really well – albeit against a couple of Wooden Spoon favourites – beating first the Dragons 38-0 and last week the Titans 30-14. Having already picked up a couple of extra points courtesy of the bye, those two wins are enough to see them sitting pretty on top of the NRL ladder. And with a game against the Tigers on their home deck to come, they are every chance of staying there for another week. But while the Tigers also started the season like the bottom-feeding team they are expected to be with a thumping defeat at the hands of the Raiders, they’ve been super impressive over the past two weeks, beating the Sharks 32-6 in a very surprising result before knocking off the Eels in a thriller by a point last weekend. Both of these teams have had a really good last couple of games, and though the Dolphins’ wins have been more resounding, the Tigers have come up against much stronger opponents. Life under Benji Marshall has started about as well as anybody could have expected, and they can continue it with a third consecutive upset win this Saturday night. 

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Tigers to win	$2.25
	Tigers +3.5	$1.95
	Tigers 1-12	$3.30

Predicted Squads

The Dolphins : 1. Dylan Edwards 2. Sunia Turuva 3. Izack Tago 
4. Taylan May 5. Brian To'o 6. Jarome Luai 7. Brad Schneider 8. Moses Leota 9. Mitch Kenny 10. Lindsay Smith 11. Luke Garner 12. Liam Martin 13. Isaah Yeo 14. Daine Laurie 15. Matt Eisenhuth 16. Liam Henry 17. Mavrik Geyer 

Wests Tigers: 1. Jahream Bula 2. Charlie Staines 3. Solomona Faataape 4. Justin Olam 5. Junior Tupou 6. Bud Sullivan 7. Aidan Sezer 8. Stefano Utoikamanu 9. Api Koroisau 10. David Klemmer 11. Isaiah Papali’i  12. John Bateman 13. Fonua Pole 14. Justin Matamua 15. Alex Seyfarth  16. Asu Kepaoa 17. Samuela Fainu

Inconsistency was something which plagued the Cowboys throughout their disappointing 2023 campaign, and it reared its ugly head once again last weekend. After three consecutive wins to start the season, two of them in emphatic fashion, they failed to give a whimper up against the Broncos, conceding three tries in the first 20 minutes and ultimately going down 38-12. Fortunately for them, they get what looks like just about the easiest matchup in the league this weekend as they attempt to bounce back – though invariably that does also bring with it an element of added pressure. The Titans’ start to a season which held some promise could hardly have been worse; despite being handed a very soft start to the season up against the Dragons, Bulldogs and Dolphins, they have lost their first three games by a cumulative total of 72 points, and making matters far, far worse, they’ll have to try to wiggle their way out of the hole that they have dug for themselves without Tino Fa’asuamaleaui, who will be out for the season with an ACL injury. It’s been a grim start to the year for the Titans and a trip to Townsville doesn’t exactly look like a place where they will be able to turn things around. If the Cowboys want to re-establish themselves as a legitimate Premiership contender, they should be winning this game with ease.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Cowboys 13+	$1.75
	Cowboys over 5.5 total tries	$2.05
	Over 47.5 total match points	$1.90

Predicted Squads

North Queensland Cowboys : 1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Kyle Feldt 3. Valentine Holmes 4. Zac Laybutt 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Tom Dearden 7. Chad Townsend 8. Jordan McLean 9. Reece Robsonn 10. Jason Taumalolo 11. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki 12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Reuben Cotter 14. Jake Granville 15. Griffin Neame 16. Sam McIntyre 17. Jack Gosiewski 

Gold Coast Titans: 1. Jayden Campbell 2. Alofiana Khan-Pereira 3. Brian Kelly 4. AJ Brimson 5. Phillip Sami 6. Kieran Foran 7. Tanah Boyd 8. Moeaki Fotuaika 9. Chris Randall  10. Isaac Liu 11. David Fifita 12. Beau Fermor 13. Jaimin Jolliffe 14. Sam Verrills 15. Klese Haas 
16. Erin Clark 17. Joe Stimson

Widely expected to tumble down the ladder this season after a finals appearance which probably belied their ability last season, the Raiders started 2024 well with two consecutive big wins. But a couple more difficult tasks over the past fortnight have yielded consecutive losses, and there were certainly a few alarm bells ringing during the latest of them. Having established an 18-0 lead within 25 minutes against the Sharks, they subsequently fell in a heap, conceding 36 points over the rest of the game while scoring only a consolation try of their own to ultimately lose 36-22. That was their worst performance of the season to date by some margin, and if they make a habit of playing anything like that they will be losing a lot of games this year. The Eels, meanwhile, have had a topsy turvy start to the year, trading wins for losses over the first month. Wins against the Bulldogs and Sea Eagles were solid enough while they were reasonably gallant in defeat against the Panthers, but with a chance to go 3-1 they failed a test they should have passed against the Tigers last weekend, going down by a point. A foot injury to Mitch Moses that will sideline him up until around the mid-point of the season is a big blow for the Eels, but even in his absence they can bounce back from their disappointing Easter Monday loss with their third victory for the season. 

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Eels to win	$2.05
	Eels +1.5	$1.95
	Eels 1-12	$3.20

Predicted Squads

Canberra Raiders: 1. Jordan Rapana 2. James Schiller 3. Matt Timoko 4. Seb Kris 5. Albert Hopoate 6. Ethan Strange 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Josh Papalii 9. Danny Levi 10. Joseph Tapine 11. Hudson Young 12. Elliott Whitehead 13. Morgan Smithies 14. Tom Starling 15. Ata Mariota 16. Pasami Saulo 17. Corey Horsburgh

Parramatta Eels : 1. Clint Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo  3. Will Penisini 
4. Morgan Harper 5. Sean Russell 6. Blaize Talagi 7. Dylan Brown 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Joey Lussick 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Kelma Tuilagi 13. J’maine Hopgood 14. Luca Moretti 15. Ryan Matterson 16. Joe Ofahengaue 17. Brendan Hands

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