AFL 2024 Round 6 – Betting tips & Predictions

It was a thrilling Round 5 in the AFL – or at least a thrilling Saturday, with three games decided by three points or less. The Giants were one of those, with their one-point defeat of St. Kilda meaning they remain one of just two undefeated teams alongside the Cats, while at the other end of the ladder the Hawks and the Kangaroos are still winless after five games. Barring a draw, the latter of those two things will change this weekend with the cellar dwellers matching up against each other, while the Giants and Cats will both also have one of their biggest tests of the year to date. Below, we take a look at how all eight games over the course of the weekend are shaping up.  

Thursday night games generally see a couple of high quality teams take to the field, and while this is not exactly the caliber of matchup we’ve seen the last couple of weeks, it’s still a really intriguing battle between two teams hoping to play finals footy this year. Both the Saints and the Doggies are coming off losses last weekend, but that’s pretty much where the similarities in those performances end. The Saints were impressive against the undefeated Giants up in Sydney, storming home to very nearly snatch victory from the jaws of defeat only to go down by a solitary point. That made it three close games in a row, with a tight win against Richmond sandwiched in between consecutive losses by four points or less, the first of which came against the Bombers. Essendon also knocked off the Bulldogs last week, and it wasn’t pretty viewing for Dogs’ fans. A team renowned for its inconsistency, they’d put in three solid weeks of footy which yielded a couple of wins and a tight loss to the Cats, but last weekend were no match for a Bombers team which most would agree they should be beating. That took their record to 2-3 and continued a trend of erratic performances which has plagued them for years. Invariably, that makes them a tough team to tip. This will be an interesting matchup between a team that loves to move the ball quickly but doesn’t always defend particularly well in the Dogs, and a Saints team coached by arguably the best defensive coach of the century. This one could go either way, but under the roof at Marvel Stadium the Doggies’ crisp ball movement should come to the fore. They can bounce back with a tight win to kick off the round’s action.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Bulldogs to win	$2.05
	Bulldogs +3.5	$1.91
	Bulldogs 1-39	$2.60

Predicted Squads

St. Kilda Saints : B: J. Battle, Z. Cordy, C. Wilkie HB: L. Stocker, J. Sinclair, N. Wanganeen-Milera C: R. Byrnes, S. Ross, B. Hill HF: J. Higgins, C. Sharman, M. Owens F: A. Caminiti, T. Membrey, D. Butler FOLL: R. Marshall, J. Steele, M. Windhager I/C: R. Bonner, M. Phillipou, P. Dow, D. Wilson, H. Garcia EMG: L. Collard, A. Hastie, T. Campbell

Western Bulldogs: B: J. Battle, Z. Cordy, C. Wilkie HB: L. Stocker, J. Sinclair, N. Wanganeen-Milera C: R. Byrnes, S. Ross, B. Hill HF: J. Higgins, C. Sharman, M. Owens F: A. Caminiti, T. Membrey, D. Butler FOLL: R. Marshall, J. Steele, M. Windhager I/C: R. Bonner, M. Phillipou, P. Dow, D. Wilson, H. Garcia EMG: L. Collard, A. Hastie, T. Campbell

At long last, the Crows are on the board, and that desperately sought-after first win came in thrilling fashion. Trailing by three goals nearing red time in the last, they booted three in a row to grab the lead courtesy of a Sam Berry snap in the 30th minute of the quarter, and did enough to hang on and win by two points. After a start to the season which has been far from ideal, that win could just be the catalyst they needed to get them back into finals contention, particularly with a very winnable game coming up this weekend. The Bombers have been decent at times this year, and last week was their most complete performance yet as they took control in the second half against the Dogs and ultimately ran away with a 29-point victory. But just a week earlier they were systematically taken apart by the Power in Adelaide. The Crows are not the same opposition and haven’t been nearly as good as their cross-town rivals this year, but they do still possess plenty of talent and last year were a very formidable unit on their home turf. Impressive as the Bombers were last weekend, it’s hard to imagine them winning this one, and the Crows can notch up their second win in a row to continue their gradual ascent up the AFL ladder.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Crows to win	$1.47
	Crows -13. 5	$1.91
	Crows 25+	$2.40

Predicted Squads

Adelaide Crows: B: L. Nankervis, J. Butts, B. Smith HB: J. Worrell, M. Keane, M. Michalanney C: M. Hinge, J. Dawson, C. Jones HF: J. Soligo, I. Rankine, J. Rachele F: B. Cook, D. Fogarty, T. Walker FOLL: R. O’Brien, R. Laird, B. Keays I/C: W. Hamill, L. Gollant, S. Berry, N. McHenry, J. Borlase EMG: B. Dowling, L. Sholl, C. Burgess

Essendon Bombers: B: D. Heppell, B. McKay, J. Menzie HB: N. Martin, M. Redman, A. McGrath C: H. Jones, D. Parish, J. Kelly HF: S. Durham, K. Langford, A. Davey Jnr F: J. Gresham, J. Laverde, N. Cox FOLL: T. Goldstein, S. Draper, Z. Merrett I/C: J. Caldwell, B. Hobbs, J. Stringer, X. Duursma, N. Hind EMG: E. Tsatas, S. Weideman, N. Caddy

IWhen these two sides met in the back half of last year, they put in what was arguably the best quality home and away game for the season, exchanging the lead throughout the final quarter in a game the Magpies ultimately won by under a goal. We all remember how the season panned out for each of them after that; that kickstarted a slump of four consecutive losses for the Power and they were ultimately knocked out of the finals in straight sets, while the Pies, of course, went on to win the flag. They each once again have lofty ambitions this season, though while the Power have started the season promisingly, the Magpies have had plenty of much-publicised troubles. They lost their first three games of the year, but an impressive win against the Lions in Brisbane finally got them on the board before they backed that up against the Hawks with another win the next week – though admittedly not a particularly impressive one and a game they very nearly let slip after leading throughout. Following that win the Magpies enjoyed the week off, while the Power notched up their fourth win of the season, coming from behind in the last quarter to snatch a three-point lead over the Dockers. That wasn’t their best performance in a scrappy game, but they’ve been among the most consistent teams so far this year, their only defeat coming in a high quality clash against the Demons. Expect another high quality game this time around. The Power don’t often get the chance to play at the MCG, and this presents a great opportunity to test their wares against one of the best in the business in front of what will be a rabid home crowd. Despite the hysteria surrounding the Magpies’ slow start to the year, they are still the reigning Premiers and one of the deserved favourites to do it again this year. If this game were being played in Adelaide it would be a different story, but on the hallowed MCG turf, the Pies should be able to get the job done in a quality game.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Magpies to win	$1.77
	Magpies -3.5	$1.91
	Magpies 1-39	$2.30

Predicted Squads

Collingwood Magpies: B: B. Maynard, J. Howe, B. Frampton HB: J. Noble, I. Quaynor, D. Moore C: P. Lipinski, J. Crisp, J. Daicos HF: N. Daicos, L. Schultz, B. Mihocek F: B. Hill, J. Elliott, R. McInnes FOLL: D. Cameron, T. Mitchell, J. De Goey I/C: F. Macrae, B. McCreery, W. Hoskin-Elliott, M. Cox, S. Sidebottom EMG: O. Markov, J. Richards, H. Harrison

Port Adelaide Power : B: A. Allir, B. Zerk-Thatcher, E. Ratugolea HB: D. Houston, R. Burton, K. Farrell C: J. Burgoyne, W. Drew, M. Bergman HF: S. Powell-Pepper, D. Byrne-Jones, C. Rozee  F: W. Rioli, T. Marshall, C. Dixon FOLL: I. Soldo, Z. Butters, J. Horne-Francis I/C: L. Jones, O. Wines, M. Georgiades, F. Evans, J. Mead 
 EMG: J. Sinn, J. McEntee, T. McKenzie 

• The Magpies haven’t started the season particularly well at the MCG, losing both of their games there, but last season it was a fortress for them, with their record at home during their Premiership year reading 14-3.  
• Like the Pies, the Lions haven’t started the season well on their home turf, but last year it was even more of a fortress for them than the MCG was for the Magpies as they went undefeated at home all year long.  
• Even though the Hawks haven’t been good for a while, they have still had the wood comfortably over the Kangaroos, winning the last four games between the two by an average of over 33 points.  

Multi of the Week

The fun continues on what looks like a really entertaining Saturday of footy when the Blues host the Giants at Marvel Stadium for the day’s twilight game. Both of these teams started the year well and entering last weekend were each undefeated, but that very nearly changed for both of them. Each of them looked destined to win pretty comfortably, but late comebacks from the Crows against the Blues and the Saints against the Giants put their undefeated record in jeopardy. As it turned out, the Giants hung on, but the same wasn’t true for Carlton. The Crows caught fire late in that game, and when Sam Berry snapped truly to give them the lead 29 minutes into the final quarter, the Blues’ fate was sealed. A couple of hours earlier, the Giants had suffered a major scare of their own after St. Kilda stormed home with six consecutive goals, but the siren sounded just in the nick of time for the home team. But while the results were different for the two teams, both the Blues and the Giants will be closely analysing what went wrong in those latter stages. Still, though those endings weren’t ideal, both of these teams had brilliant second halves to last year to storm into Preliminary Finals, and have started this year looking every bit in Premiership contention. That means, of course, that we should be in for a really, really good game. The Giants have already knocked off a couple of big name teams this year, but this will be another very stern test. The Blues, too, haven’t exactly just been beating up on good teams, but the Giants have been as good as anyone this year and will be a formidable opponent, even in Melbourne. This is a really tough game to tip and could easily go down to the wire, but like the game prior, the home ground edge may ultimately be what separates them. Were this being played in Sydney I’d be tipping the Giants, but in Melbourne, the Blues can just sneak over the line in yet another tight game.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Blues to win	$1.80
	Blues -2.5	$1.91
	Blues 1-39	$2.40

Predicted Squads

Carlton Blues: B: J. Weitering, B. Kemp, C. Marchbank HB: A. Cincotta, Z. Williams, N. Newman C: O. Hollands, P. Cripps, B. Acres HF: M. Cottrell, E. Hollands, C. Durdin F: H. McKay, M. Owies, C. Curnow FOLL: T. De Koning, G. Hewett, S. Walsh I/C: J. Boyd, M. Kennedy, O. Fantasia, M. Pittonet, J. Carroll EMG: J. Binns, L. Cowan, D. Cuningham

GWS Giants : B: H. Perryman, N. Haynes, C. Idun HB: L. Whitfield, J. Buckley, L. Ash C: J. Wehr, J. Kelly, F. Callaghan HF: B. Daniels, J. Ricciardi, T. Bedford F: T. Greene, J. Hogan, C. Brown FOLL: K. Briggs, C. Ward, T. Green I/C: X. O’Halloran, H. Thomas, H. Himmelberg, A. Cadman, J. Peatling EMG: J. Fahey, M. Gruzewski, R. Angwin 

It’s a three-way toss up for the best game on Saturday, with the Lions vs Cats the last of a trio of excellent games. This might be 10th vs 2nd on the ladder, but Brisbane are obviously better than that and have begun to show it over the past couple of games. After going down to the Magpies to make it three straight losses to start the year, they finally got some points on the board with an easy kill against the Kangaroos. Based on the way they backed that performance up, it seemed to have been the result they needed to get their season going, because last Thursday night against the Demons they played as well as they have all season by some way to secure a 22-point win. They were a level above the Dees in that game, which is no mean feat, particularly on the MCG. They now return to the Gabba, where they didn’t lose all of last year, but will again need to be on their game against the undefeated Cats. Geelong have had a couple of easy wins this year and last week was the easiest of the lot as they took the Roos to the cleaners at GMHBA, but though their opposition wasn’t particularly formidable, it was still a big muscle flex from the 2022 Premiers. Try as so many might to write this team off, they continue to defy the odds, and this year they look like returning to the finals after a year out of them last year. The way they have been playing they are capable of matching it with the Lions even up at the Gabba, but after a slow start Brisbane appears to be hitting their straps, and when they do, they are close to unbeatable on their home turf. This should be a great game, but the Lions can eke out a hard-fought third win on the trot.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Lions to win	$1.53
	Lions 1-24	$3.40
	Lions 1-39	$2.15

Predicted Squads

Brisbane Lions : B: B. Starcevich, J. Payne, R. Lester HB: D. Wilmot, H. Andrews, D. Gardiner C: J. Fletcher, H. McCluggage, J. Berry HF: C. Cameron, E. Hipwood, L. McCarthy F: C. Rayner, J. Daniher, D. Zorko FOLL: O. McInerney, J. Dunkley, L. Neale I/C: K. Lohmann, C. Ah Chee, J. Lyons, N. Answerth, J. Tunstill EMG: L. Morris, J. Lyons, D. Fort

Geelong Cats: B: T. Stewart, S. De Koning, C. O’Sullivan HB: Z. Guthrie, J. Henry, M. Holmes C: Z. Tuohy, T. Bruhn, T. Atkins HF: B. Close, T. Stengle, G. Miers F: J. Cameron, T. Hawkins, O. Henry FOLL: R. Stanley, P. Dangerfield, M. Blicavs I/C: O. Dempsey, J. Bowes, M. O’Connor, M. Duncan, B. Parfitt EMG: J. Kolodjashnij, S. Mannagh, S. Neale 

This is by some margin the least interesting game on Saturday’s blockbuster schedule for neutrals, but it has some tough competition and there is still plenty of reason to be intrigued by how it plays out. For starters, it’s the Western Derby, so while there might not be the same level of buzz outside of Western Australia, in Perth this game is just about as big as it gets. What’s more, after a couple of years of being one of the worst teams in history, the Eagles put in a performance which finally suggested that there is light at the end of the tunnel. Granted they were playing a Richmond team decimated by injury, but they looked really good last weekend, with Elliot Yeo back to some of his very best form and Harley Reid proving that the hype surrounding him was very much justified. They will be keen to back that performance up this week, potentially against the team they see as their little brother but which has been significantly outperforming them in recent years. The Dockers are trying to re-establish themselves as a finals and potentially even Premiership contender this year after taking a big step backwards in 2023, and three consecutive wins was a good way to start. Unfortunately, they’ve suffered back to back close losses in games which they really should have won. They gave up late leads against first the Blues and then the Power, and while they can count themselves unlucky they also clearly have some work to do in late game situations. But despite the Eagles’ impressive performance last week, the Dockers will be expecting to avoid needing any late game nous in this one. They will provide a more potent test for their cross-town rivals than the Tigers did last week, and should be able to snap that two-game losing streak and pick up their fourth win of the season.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Eagles +44.5	$1.55
	Dockers 1-39	$2.35
	Dockers to win	$1.15

Predicted Squads

West Coast Eagles : B: A. Witherden, T. Barrass, J. Rotham HB: B. Hough, J. McGovern, L. Duggan C: J. Hunt, T. Kelly, C. Chesser HF: J. Cripps, J. Waterman, N. Long F: T. Brockman, J. Darling, J. Petruccelle FOLL: B. Williams, E. Yeo, H. Reid I/C: D. Sheed, J. Williams, R. Ginbey, T. Cole, R. Maric EMG: A. Gaff, L. Rawlinson, L. Ryan

Fremantle Dockers : B: J. Aish, A. Pearce, J. Draper HB: B. Walker, L. Ryan, J. Clark C: M. Johnson, N. Fyfe, J. Sharp HF: M. Walters, B. Banfield, S. Switkowski F: J. Treacy, J. Amiss, S. Darcy FOLL: L. Jackson, C. Serong, A. Brayshaw I/C: T. Emmett, H. Young, J. O’Meara, E. Hughes, N. Erasmus EMG: W. Brodie, H. Davies, L. Reidy 

The Swans have been an interesting watch so far this year. Against the best teams in the league they have looked like a Premiership favourites, opening their season with comfortable wins over first the Demons and then the Magpies. They subsequently lost to the Tigers, and though they got the win against the Eagles they weren’t exactly at their best in that game either. Still, there is no denying the talent on this team, and their midfield in particular has been looking lethal, even without Callum Mills and Luke Parker. This weekend, they come up against another team which thrives on the inside in the Gold Coast Suns. In their first season under coach Damian Hardwick, the Suns have been one of the best contested ball teams in the comp – in no small part due to Matt Rowell’s form. They’ve won three of their first five games, and though a big defeat to the Suns was disappointing, that game aside they’ve performed well each and every week. They will need to once again this week. The Swans in Sydney is likely to be one of the most difficult tests in the league this year, and the Suns probably aren’t quite at the level to pass it just yet. A team which excels on the inside like they do should thrive in the tighter confines of the SCG and that may well help them to keep this one tight, but nonetheless the home side should be able to secure their fifth win of the season.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Swans to win	$1.35
	Swans 1-39	$2.20
	Swans 1-24	$3.30

Predicted Squads

Sydney Swans : B: J. Lloyd, T. McCartin, L. Melican HB: H. Cunningham, N. Blakey, O. Florent C: E. Gulden, C. Warner, J. McInerney HF: W. Hayward, L. McDonald, T. Adams F: T. Papley, H. McLean, R. Fox FOLL: B. Grundy, I. Heeney, J. Rowbottom I/C: J. Jordon, M. Roberts, L. Parker, J. Amartey, B. Campbell EMG: P. Ladhams, C. Warner, A. Francis

Gold Coast Suns: B: J. Lukosius, C. Ballard, S. Collins HB: W. Powell, S. Flanders, M. Andrew C: B. Fiorini, T. Miller, S. Clohesy HF: B. Ainsworth, E. Read, T. Berry F: M. Rowell, B. King, M. Rosas FOLL: J. Witts, N. Anderson, B. Humphrey I/C: N. Holman, J. Walter, W. Graham, B. Uwland, D. Swallow EMG: R. Atkins, A. Sexton, D. Macpherson 

After what looms as a brilliant round of footy, this might be the best of them. I jest, of course – these two sides currently occupy the bottom two spots on the AFL ladder and are the only teams yet to notch up a victory this season. For neutrals, a draw might be the most exciting outcome purely for the story, but more likely this game will see one of these teams finally get their first points of the season. Though expectations weren’t exactly through the roof for these teams, both have been pretty disappointing in 2024. The Kangaroos started okay, with a semi-competitive performance against the Giants in Round 1 and another against the Dockers the next week, but over the past three weeks their losses have got increasingly heavy and they were, unsurprisingly, no match for the Cats at GMHBA Stadium last weekend. The Hawks, meanwhile, have been a little more competitive in a couple of games, though given they had loftier ambitions than the Roos this year they have arguably been even more disappointing. Their best performance came a couple of weeks ago when they got within a goal of the Magpies, but they returned to their disappointing form last weekend against the Suns, going down by 53 points. Both of these teams have some young talent at their disposal; that’s been clear for a while for the Hawks, while for the Roos that talent remains a little more raw. But this will be a good test for both of them against a team they are more evenly matched with than many of those they have been drubbed by so far this year. The Kangaroos simply have to be competitive in this one and if they can’t against the Hawks, that doesn’t bode particularly well for them against nearly anyone else in the league. But while they should be able to avoid the kind of 10+ goal smashing to which they’ve become so accustomed, this still looks like the Hawks’ game to lose. They can pick up their first win of the season in a scrappy Sunday afternoon affair to round out the weekend’s action.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Hawks to win	$1.42
	Hawks 1-39	$2.25
	Hawks 1-24	$3.30

Predicted Squads

North Melbourne Kangaroos : B: C. Comben, A. Corr, B. Nyuon HB: H. Sheezel, L. McDonald, G. Wardlaw C: D. Tucker, L. Davies-Uniacke, B. Scott HF: Z. Duursma, T. Powell, E. Ford F: P. Curtis, N. Larkey, T. Sellers FOLL: T. Xerri, D. Stephens, J. Simpkin I/C: Z. Fisher, C. McKercher, B. Drury, C. Zurhaar, C. Lazzaro EMG: W. Phillips, J. Archer, R. Hansen Jnr

Hawthorn Hawks: B: M. D’Ambrosio, S. Frost, J. Sicily HB: J. Scrimshaw, J. Impey, B. Hardwick C: K. Amon, J. Ward, C. Nash HF: J. Gunston, M. Lewis, S. Mitchell F: J. Ginnivan, M. Chol, F. Maginness FOLL: L. Meek, J. Worpel, D. Moore I/C: J. Weddle, J. Newcombe, C. Macdonald, C. Mackenzie, H. Morrison EMG: N. Reeves, H. Hustwaite, J. Serong

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