AFLW 2024 Round 9 – Betting Tips, Odds & Predictions

The penultimate round of the AFLW home and away season is already upon us, and with four matches between two teams still in the finals mix, Round 9 will have a big say on the outcome of the season. It kicks off on Thursday night with a huge clash between the 2nd placed Hawks and the resurgent Demons, who will be attempting to jump inside the top eight for the first time this year following four consecutive wins, while Friday night will play host to another pivotal game when the 3rd placed Crows welcome the top of the table Kangaroos to Norwood Oval. Elsewhere, the Bombers play the Tigers, the Eagles host the Cats and the Lions face the Swans, and below we have previewed all nine games set to take place across the course of the round.

There is another contender on Friday night, but the Round 9 opener between the Hawks and the Demons might just be the most significant of the week. Both of these teams have plenty to play for – Hawthorn a top two spot and the Dees a spot in the final – and they each enter the game with some resounding form behind them. Hawthorn, for their part, have been in such form all year. They have lost just a solitary game, that coming against the Crows back in Round 3, giving them six consecutive wins since to establish a stronghold on 2nd spot. They have a one game gap on both the Crows and the Lions meaning that two wins would guarantee them a home Qualifying Final, though with the Crows right there with them on percentage, a solitary slip up for the Hawks could see them drop out of the top two.

The Demons, meanwhile, hit the halfway point of the season with a 1-4 record and on the back of a humiliating 72-7 loss to the Bombers, but since then have turned things around about as well as they could have hoped to. They have won four games on the trot, none of them all that emphatically, but with wins in that time coming against both the Crows and the Tigers, it’s safe to say that they have been playing every bit like a top eight side. Last week’s win was particularly impressive against a Richmond team playing for a spot in the top four, with the offensive woes which have plagued the Dees all season notably absent as they booted eight goals for the game. Halfway through the last they were up by 33 points, too, so the 13-point final margin probably flattered Richmond in the end. The Hawks have been incredibly tough to beat all year and have established themselves as a legitimate Premiership contender, but the Dees are playing as well as they have in 2024. This should be a high quality and high intensity game, but while the Demons should be able to give their opposition a serious scare, the Hawks are extremely hard to go past against virtually anyone in the league right now. They can sneak over the line with a tight win to put the Demons’ finals hopes in jeopardy.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Hawks to win	$1.45
	Hawks 1-24	$2.25
	Hawks 1-39	$1.65

Predicted Squads

Hawthorn Hawks: FB: T. Lucas-Rodd, L. Stephenson HB: J. Richardson, T. Smith, A. Kemp C: K. Ashmore, M. Breed, M. Williamson HF: S. Locke, A. McDonagh, A. Gilroy FF: B. Hipwell, S. Butterworth Fol: L. Wales, E. Bates, E. West IC: H. McLaughlin, L. Elliott, C. Baskaran, J. Fleming, J. Vukic

Melbourne Demons: FB: D. Taylor, T. Gillard HB: M. Chaplin, S. Lampard, S. Goldrick C: B. Mackin, T. Hanks, E. McNamara HF: M. Fitzsimon, L. Mithen, E. Zanker FF: A. Bannan, G. Gall Fol: L. Pearce, K. Hore, S. Heath IC: R. Watt, R. Wotherspoon, G. Campbell, S. Taylor, O. Purcell

After Thursday night’s blockbuster to start off Round 9, Friday night will see a top of the table clash between the Crows – currently sitting in 3rd – and the Roos, who have sat square on top of the ladder all year long. North Melbourne have well and truly sewn up a top four spot and will finish top two unless they lose both of their last two games, but for the Crows, a loss here will put their spot in jeopardy, particularly if it’s a hefty one. They have not, however, suffered one of those all season. Adelaide has lost just two games this year and they have both been by two points – those defeats coming within three games of one another – and since then they have been as powerful as anyone, winning their last two games by 63 and 43 points. Of course, those games have been against the Giants and the Magpies, two teams who could hardly be further from the Kangaroos.

Last year’s runners-up have been dominant ever since Round 1 of this season, when they knocked off the team that beat them in last year’s Grand Final in the Lions by 44 points. They drew the next week but haven’t had another blemish since, and have been winning by huge margins virtually every week – something which their 335.6% is indicative of. Just once in their last six games has an opposition team kicked more than two goals on them, with the scores they have conceded in that run being 6, 10, 15, 4, 27, and last week, 7. Meanwhile, they are also the highest scoring team in the competition. They have hardly been tested for two months, but if ever they were going to be, the Crows in Adelaide looks like the place. With their losses coming by a combined total of just four points all year, the Crows could very easily be sitting ahead of the Kangaroos with an undefeated record, and particularly on their home turf should be an incredibly difficult proposition even for the Premiership favourites. But North Melbourne are, to put it simply, streets ahead of the chasing pack at this point in time. There is not a matchup in the league that they would not enter as favourites, and while the Crows should be able to make a serious game of this, it’s very difficult to go past the visitors.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Kangaroos to win	$1.42
	Kangaroos 1-24	$2.15
	Kangaroos 1-39	$1.55

Predicted Squads

Adelaide Crows: FB: Z. Prowse, S. Allan HB: C. Biddell, C. Randall, S. Goodwin C: N. Kelly, M. Newman, K. Mueller HF: H. Munyard, D. Ponter, R. Martin FF: C. Gould, S. Thompson Fol: J. Allan, E. Marinoff, A. Hatchard IC: A. Boyle-Carr, K. Kustermann, T. Levy, T. Charlton, B. Tonon

North Melbourne Kangaroos: FB: L. Birch, J. Ferguson HB: N. Bresnehan, S. Wright, T. Craven C: T. Gatt, J. Garner, N. Martin HF: J. Bruton, B. Eddey, V. Wall FF: T. Randall, K. Shierlaw Fol: E. King, M. King, A. Riddell IC: E. O’Shea, R. Tripodi, A. Smith, K. Rennie, A. O’Loughlin

The Giants had a competitive first half or so of the season, even if it was not rewarded with many wins – one, to be specific – but the wheels have begun to fall off over the past weeks as their opponents have become increasingly difficult. They have lost their last three games by 34 points or more, first by that margin to the Saints, then by 64 to the Crows, and last week by 37 to the Hawks. Admittedly it has been a tough run, but while things get a little bit easier this week than they have been over the past fortnight, the Dockers are not exactly going to present a straightforward challenge for the 16th placed Giants.

Fremantle had been really solid all season up until a few weeks ago, but two consecutive tight losses – one very gallant one to the Hawks, one a lot more disappointing against the Blues – saw them lose touch with the top four and put even their finals hopes potentially in jeopardy. But they bounced back strongly last week, knocking off their cross-town rivals in the Eagles comfortably in a low-scoring Western Derby. That took their record to 6-3, a game and percentage outside of the top four but also a game and percentage clear inside the top eight. With just two games to go, that places them as just about the only team virtually guaranteed of a spot in that 5th-8th bracket. Of course, top six will be the goal for them, a result which would secure them a home Elimination Final, and with a win this weekend they can virtually lock that away. With the Giants just limping towards the end of the season, this should be a relatively comfortable victory for the Dockers.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Dockers to win	$1.25
	Dockers -16.5	$1.91
	Dockers 25+	$2.55

Predicted Squads

Greater Western Sydney Giants: FB: P. Randall, K. Smith HB: J. Grierson, I. Huntington, E. Pease C: H. Zreika, A. Eva, M. Brazendale HF: T. Evans, G. Garnett, M. Pauga FF: Z. Goldsworthy, B. Mowbray Fol: E. O’Dowd, R. Beeson, A. Parker IC: M. Gaffney, A. Newman, J. Doyle, C. Ransom, J. Ramsdale

Fremantle Dockers: FB: A. Brazill, L. Pugh HB: G. O’Sullivan, E. O’Driscoll, M. Scanlon C: P. Seth, J. Low, O. Lally HF: S. Verrier, J. Flynn, G. Biedenweg-Webster FF: M. Kauffman, E. Antonio Fol: M. Strom, A. McCarthy, G. Newton IC: T. Kikoak, J. Cregg, A. Runnalls, A. Mulholland, D. East

• The Power have won four games in a row, three of them by at least 13 points. The line for them against a Suns team with just one win is only 14.5 points.
• The Giants have lost four of their last five games by at least four goals, including their last three by 33 points or more.
• The Crows have not lost a game by more than two points all year, but the Kangaroos are yet to be beaten in season 2024.

Multi of the Week

At long, long last, the Suns are on the board in 2024. It took nine games for them to get there, but they finally registered their first win of the year last weekend, and did so in thrilling fashion against the Swans no less. The Suns led throughout the game, but three consecutive goals in the middle of the final quarter saw Sydney gain a four-point lead with just a few minutes to go, and with all the momentum they looked likely to hold onto it, too. But the Suns showed plenty of character over the dying minutes, and Jacqueline Dupuy’s second goal of the game ultimately gave them a lead in the 20th minute that they wouldn’t relinquish. That result got them off the bottom of the ladder, sneaking ahead of the Magpies, and though it changes very little in the grand scheme of things they will nonetheless be pleased to have avoided a winless season.

Making it two from two, however, will not be easy. The Power have spent plenty of time down the bottom of the ladder themselves over their short time in the league, but this season they have improved drastically and four wins on the trot have put them in the box seat to make a maiden finals appearance. They had plenty riding on last week’s clash with the Saints, a 9th vs 10th match up, and they played like it from the beginning. Five goals to one in the first quarter set up the win, and though they only kicked a couple more goals thereafter, they held the Saints to just two of their own until the last few minutes of the game when they booted a couple of consolatory majors. The win saw Port jump to 7th, but they are ahead of both the Bombers and Demons on percentage alone, while the Saints are still in touching distance just a game back and with a similar percentage. One win could well be enough to get the Power into the finals, though two would guarantee it, but with the Giants to come next week it’s hard to see them missing out. The ball is now in their court, and they should be able to potentially lock themselves into a finals spot with a comfortable win this Saturday.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Power to win	$1.31
	Power -14.5	$1.91
	Power -6.5 first half	$1.88

Predicted Squads

Gold Coast Suns: FB: M. Girvan, C. Wilson HB: C. Fitzpatrick, K. Lynch, W. Randell C: G. Clayden, L. Single, A. Kievit HF: J. Stanton, T. Bohanna, E. Maurer FF: E. Barwick, J. Dupuy Fol: L. Bella, C. Rowbottom, C. Whitfort IC: D. Davies, D. D’Arcy, K. Bischa, K. Fullerton, T. Oliver

Port Adelaide Power: FB: M. Brooksby, A. Borg HB: T. Germech, E. O’Dea, A. Foley C: S. Goody, M. Moloney, K. Pope HF: G. Houghton, J. Mules-Robinson, K. Lamb FF: A. Saint, J. Stewart Fol: M. Scholz, A. Dowrick, P. Window IC: C. Hammond, E. Boag, S. Syme, O. Levicki, C. Wendland

I said at the beginning of this piece that there were four games between two teams still in the finals hunt this round – this is the fourth of them, and though it may be a stretch to say that both the Eagles and Cats can play finals, they will both be treating this game as though they can. Certainly West Coast is in the mix – they have had a significantly improved season in their first coach under Daisy Pearce, but three losses in a row have seen them tumble from inside the top eight down to 11th. They do, however, remain just a game outside the top eight with two games to go, though with a percentage gap on two of the three teams a game ahead of them they may well need two solid wins over the past two weeks of the year if they are to see finals action.

The task ahead of the Cats is even more monumental, though they are probably a team better equipped to rise to the challenge than their opponent in this game. Geelong is a game and a half behind the three teams occupying 7th to 9th spots on the AFLW ladder, meaning they will need to win both of their last two and hope that two of those sides lose both of their remaining games if they are to play finals. Clearly that is a long shot, but they did well to at least keep those mathematical hopes alive last week with an impressive win over the Lions. That win showed that the Cats do still have what it takes to mix it with top eight teams and could cause plenty of problems if they were to play finals – unfortunately, getting there looks likely to be a tough ask. They will need to rely on others for it to happen, but they need to play their part too, and can do that this weekend against the Eagles. Whoever loses this one will be officially out of the finals race and the Cats may well be even if they win, but they can at least keep their slim finals hopes on life support with a third win in four weeks.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Cats to win	$1.15
	Cats -22.5	$1.91
	Cats 25+	$2.00

Predicted Squads

West Coast Eagles: FB: Z. Wakfer, B. Schilling HB: C. Thomas, E. Swanson, B. Smith C: J. Britton, E. Roberts, C. Rowley HF: K. Gibson, M. Western, S. Bakker FF: L. Wakfer, R. Roux Fol: G. Cleaver, J. Hosking, I. Lewis IC: A. Franklin, A. Drennan, A. Bushby, S. Lakay, M. Webb

Geelong Cats: FB: M. McDonald, A. Kennedy HB: G. Rankin, R. Webster, C. Emonson C: Z. Friswell, J. Crocket-Grills, C. thorne HF: M. Bowen, J. Parry, K. Surman FF: A. Moloney, S. Scott Fol: K. Darby, N. Morrison, G. Prespakis IC: C. Gunjaca, B. K. Smith M. Bragg, G. Featherston, C. Mason

As the AFLW ladder currently stands, the Bombers and the Tigers would be playing one another in the first week of the finals, but with still two weeks to go there is still scope for each of their fortunes to change significantly. For the Bombers, a spot in the top eight is far from assured. They are ahead of the surging Demons on percentage alone while the Saints are just a game back and with a superior percentage, so a loss here would very possibly see them fall outside of the eight by the end of the weekend. On the flip side of the coin, if they win they could either remain in 8th, or move potentially as high up as 5th if they absolutely thumped the Tigers. The Bombers have been winning a lot more often than losing of late, with last week’s defeat to the Roos their first loss in over a month, but despite that they haven’t been setting the world on fire, winning for the most part close games to bottom eight teams, and they were completely pumped by the Roos last week. Against the Tigers, they will need to be on their game if they’re to have a chance.

Richmond also suffered a loss last week, theirs a 13-point defeat to the Dees which probably looked better than it was courtesy of a few late goals. That was a disappointing performance and one which now makes a top four finish unlikely, but it was just their third defeat of the year and the 13-point margin was the biggest that they have been on the wrong end of in 2024. By and large they have been very impressive this season, and with both the Crows and Lions just a game ahead of them they will still be harbouring hopes of a top four finish. Two wins, of course, is a prerequisite for them to have any chance of that, and they should be able to notch up the first of them against the Bombers this Saturday night.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Tigers to win	$1.45
	Tigers -9.5	$1.91
	Tigers 25+	$4.00

Predicted Squads

Essendon Bombers: FB: A. Van Loon, E. Gamble HB: A. Morcom, M. Gay, G. Clarke C: B. Keaney, M. Prespakis, A. Gaylor HF: P. Scott, D. Bannister, S. Alexander FF: B. Toogood, L. Williamson Fol: S. Wales, S. Cain, G. Nanscawen IC: B. Walker, B. Brown, E. Gough, M. Busch, A. Radford

Richmond Tigers: FB: G. Seymour, R. Miller HB: B. Lynch, I. Bacon, L. Graham C: M. Shevlin, E. McKenzie, K. Dempsey HF: A. Dallaway, K. Brennan, S. Hosking FF: C. Greiser, E. Yassir Fol: P. Kelly, E. Sheerin, M. Conti IC: M. Ford, J. Hicks, T. Lavey, G. Egan, L. McClelland

The Bulldogs have been the worst team in the league at various points throughout this season, and were somewhere around that mark prior to last week’s game having failed to kick a goal in their two consecutive outings. At other times, however, they have looked quite good, and last round’s clash against the Blues was one of those occasions. Having scored a grand total of seven points over the previous fortnight, they put up 61 en route to a 33-point defeat of Carlton to notch up their third win of the season. Oddly enough two of those wins have been by big margins, but their losses, too, have generally been by big numbers. That makes them a difficult team to pick but given the Saints’ recent form, they are more than capable of winning this game if they play like they did last week.

The Saints, however, still have a spot in the finals to play for, and if they can’t beat the Dogs to keep themselves in it then they do not deserve that spot. Already they are struggling, having lost four of their last five games to fall to 4-5 and outside the top eight. Those losses, however, have been relatively gallant, each coming by 15 points or less and all to teams currently inside the top eight or just outside of it. The Bulldogs will be one of the easier opponents that they have had for a while, though as was evident last week, they certainly cannot be taken lightly. The Saints are just a game outside of the top eight and have a better percentage than two of the three teams just four points ahead of them, so they are still very much in the finals mix. But two wins may be necessary to get there, so they can ill-afford to slip up this weekend. The Bulldogs, if they bring what they did last week, should be able to make a game of this, but the Saints need to win and can get the job done to keep their finials hopes alive.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Saints to win	$1.31
	Saints -11.5	$1.91
	Saints -5.5 first half	$1.88

Predicted Squads

Western Bulldogs: FB: C. Buttifant, K. Kimber HB: I. Grant, E. Georgostathis, M. Gorham C: R. Wilcox, J. Fitzgerald, E. Bennetts HF: S. Hartwig, B. Gutknecht, H. Woodley FF: A. McKee, K. Weston-Turner Fol: A. Edmonds, D. Berry, I. Pritchard IC: D. Carruthers, N. Ferres, E. Grigg, B. McFarlane, J. Smith

St. Kilda Saints: FB: N. Stevens, S. Watson HB: H. Priest, P. Trudgeon, B. Jakobsson C: M. McDonald, J. Lambert, D. Guttridge HF: G. Kelly, J. Wardlaw, J. Anderson FF: C. Simpson, A. Richards Fol: E. Fiedler, O. Vesely, T. Smith IC: A. Burke, K. Whiley, H. Stuart, E. Friend, N. Plane

This is not exactly the powerhouse battle that these two sides have so often been involved in throughout their near 130-year history in the men’s competition, with the Blues and Magpies, in some respects, the worse two teams in the AFLW this season. Certainly the Magpies are; after Gold Coast’s breakthrough win last season, the Pies are now dead last on the ladder with a 1-8 record and a pitiful percentage of just 42.8% - the worst in the league. They have scored the least and conceded the most points this season, and would be a deserving Wooden Spooner if that is where they ultimately end up finishing.

The Blues, with three wins to their name, would perhaps justifiably be aggrieved at being placed alongside the Magpies in the conversation for the worst team in the league, but while their best has been better, most weeks they have not looked much better than the Magpies. Despite having won three games, their percentage is 47.3%, better than only that of Collingwood, and last week they lost by 33 points to a Bulldogs team which hadn’t kicked a goal in three weeks. They have been pumped in four of their last five games, the sole exception coming when they unexpectedly beat the Dockers, and if they play like they have most weeks then they have no reason to assume that they will be capable of beating the Magpies. Don’t expect this game to reach any great heights, with neither team likely to hit the scoreboard particularly often, and though it’s not with a huge amount of confidence, the Blues have to be the pick if only for the fact that the Magpies are that bad.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Blues to win	$1.56
	Blues 1-39	$1.67
	Blues 1-24	$2.10

Predicted Squads

Collingwood Magpies: FB: L. Cronin, S. Livingstone HB: M. Atkinson, L. Butler, R. Schleicher C: S. Rowe, T. White, J. Allen HF: M. Cann, J. Ivey, A. Porter FF: E. James, L. Brazzale Fol: I. Barnett, B. Bonnici, A. Schutte IC: E. Fowler, S. Frederick, C. Remmos, E. Morris, I. Evans

Carlton Blues: FB: G. Lawson-Tavan, H. Cordner HB: G. Pound, K. Peterson, M. Hill C: M. Austin, A. McKay, K. Skepper HF: K. Sherar, C. Fitzgerald, T. Brown FF: D. Finn, J. Good Fol: B. Moody, M. Guerin, L. Goss IC: T. Ortlepp, M. Anthony, C. Moody, A. Velardo, M. Robertson

Round 9 concludes with a game which doesn’t loom as a particularly close one, but which is pivotal for the Lions in the context of their season. A loss to the Cats last week, just their second of the season, saw the Lions fall to 4th spot – fortunately for them the Tigers also lost and they remained in the top four as a result, but another loss could easily see that change. The Lions, however, should not have too many problems beating Sydney. What will be significant, assuming they do, is how much they win by. They are level on points with the Crows but a fair way behind on percentage, while they are also a game and percentage behind the Hawks. Percentage may end up playing a crucial role in where they finish either in the top four – or whether they finish in it at all – so it is not just the win or loss result which matters here.

The Swans, for their part, are limping towards the end of the season, having lost five games in a row. They will be getting extremely sick of tight losses given that four of them have been by seven points or less, though they can hardly complain about last week’s result. Yes they lost by less than a kick again, but the Suns had not won a single game all season and the Swans, if they were half-decent, would have been able to put them away comfortably. The solitary big loss in that five week patch came by ten goals to the Kangaroos, and though the Roos are out in front as the best team in the league, the Lions are not all that far behind. This should be a similarly substantial defeat for the Swans, with the reigning Premiers giving themselves a potentially significant percentage boost right on the eve of the finals.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Lions 25+	$1.33
	Lions -36.5	$1.91
	Lions 40+	$2.10

Predicted Squads

Brisbane Lions: FB: J. Dunne, P. Boltz HB: B. Koenen, N. Grider, J. Ellenger C: C. Mullins, A. Anderson, O O’Dwyer HF: S. Conway, C. Hodder, R. Svarc FF: T. Smith, D. Davidson Fol: T. Hickie, I. Dawes, C. Svarc IC: E. Hartill, S. Campbell, S. Davidson, E. Long, L. Postlethwaite

Sydney Swans: FB: A. Mitchell, B. Tarrant HB: L. Steane, R. Sargent-Wiilson, M. Collier C: E. Heads, C. Hamilton, L. McEvoy HF: S. Grunden, P. McCarthy, R. Privitelli FF: M. Ham, B. Lochland Fol: G. Davies, T. Kennedy, S. Hurley IC: A. Whelan, A. Hamilton, H. Bullas, L. Szigeti, H. Cooper

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