AFL 2024 Semi-Finals – Betting Tips, Odds & Predictions

One week of the AFL Finals is done and dusted, and just six teams remain in the race for the 2024 Premiership. This weekend, two more of them will be eliminated from that race. Semi-final weekend kicks off on Friday night when the rampant Hawks head to Adelaide to take on a Port Adelaide side reeling from a woeful Qualifying Final performance last weekend, before the Giants, fresh off a devastating loss against the Swans, host the Lions. It’s not unusual for the teams which won their Elimination  

Finals to be viewed as a live chance to beat the teams which lost their Qualifying Finals only to fail to live up to that expectation, but this weekend the prospect of the two lower ranked sides winning looks a lot higher than usual. Below, we take an in-depth look at both of those games, and how they might play out.  

The Power had a terrific last couple of months of the home and away season to sew up second spot and earn themselves a home Qualifying Final, but they did not exactly make the most of it. Instead, they were beaten from pillar to post by the Cats, failing to give much of a yelp en route to a 14-goal defeat. In such a heavy defeat they were unsurprisingly beaten all across the park, but on the receiving end of a large chunk of the scrutiny was their highly talented midfield. Zak Butters didn’t play the second half after being subbed out of that one with an injury and his absence was significant, but he is expected to return this weekend, and they will need a lot more from him – as well as the likes of Connor Rozee and Jason Horne-Francis – than what he gave when he was on the field last week.  
 
If they are not, expect the visitors to take full advantage. The Hawks’ incredible season, which has seen them develop from a seeming Wooden Spoon contender two months in, to a genuine Premiership threat, continued last weekend when they proved far too good for a Bulldogs team which was themselves one of the Premiership favourites just a few weeks ago. The young Hawks’ boundless energy and enthusiasm has played a major role in their phenomenal turnaround in fortunes, and they proved that they are more than capable of replicating it in the finals against the Dogs. After a slow opening quarter which saw them enter the first break down a couple of goals, they switched a flick much like they did a quarter of the way through their season, running all over their opposition and ultimately running out 99-62 winners. Unfortunately, they will be without Sam Frost both for this weekend and any more games they play throughout the finals, which could leave them exposed against the Power’s sizeable forward line, but one of the features of Hawthorn’s game this year has been their ability to prevent opposing teams from moving the ball with any great fluidity, and if they can do that it will go a long way to nullifying those forwards.  
 
As it so often does, the midfield battle will have a massive say in the outcome of this game. It would be tough to argue that the Hawks have as much talent in there as the Power – as great as guys like Jai Newcombe and James Worpel are, that group is not really comparable from a pure talent perspective as Butters, Rozee and Horne-Francis, particularly with Will Day set to miss this game. But the Hawks are a quality midfield outfit even if they are more workmanlike, and Port Adelaide’s star-studded group will need to be a hell of a lot better this week than next or they will be set for a straight sets exit.  
 
As mentioned above, it’s not uncommon for the lower-ranked winner to be given a big chance of beating the top four team coming off a loss, but that is even more the case here – so much so that the Hawks are reasonably comfortable favourites against the Power, even with the game being played in Adelaide. Given the Hawks’ unstoppable form for a really extended period of time now, it’s easy to see why, but even so, the extent of their favouritism seems a little too much. There is plenty of reason to expect the Power to be able to bounce back – they are a quality team and will have a home ground advantage which should be significant – and they seem like overs in this one. The Hawks are every chance of winning this game, but the Power, having finished 2nd and playing at home, deserve more respect than they’re getting. In what looms as a really tight game, they look like the value pick.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Power to win	$2.30
	Power +8.5	$1.91
	Power 1-39	$2.80

Predicted Squads

Port Adelaide Power: B: La. Jones, B. Zerk-Thatcher, M. Bergman HB: R. Burton, A. Aliir, L. Evans C: J. Burgoyne, O. Wines, W. Drew HF: D. Byrne-Jones, E. Ratugolea, W. Rioli F: M. Georgiades, T. Marshall, C. Rozee - C FOLL: J. Sweet, J. Horne-Francis, Z. Butters I/C: T. Boak, J. McEntee, J. Mead, F. Evans, Q. Narkle EMG: J. Sinn, D. Visentini, C. Dixon

Hawthorn Hawks: B: C. Jiath, J. Sicily - C, J. Impey HB: M. D’Ambrosio, J. Scrimshaw, F. Maginness C: C. Macdonald, D. Moore, J. Ward HF: K. Amon, M. Chol, J. Ginnivan F: C. Dear, J. Gunston, N. Watson FOLL: L. Meek, J. Worpel, J. Newcombe I/C: J. Weddle, H. Morrison, C. Nash, B. Hardwick, L. Breust EMG: J. Serong, C. Jiath, N. Reeves

The Giants were so, so close to locking up a home Preliminary Final last week against the Swans. But despite leading by 27 points late in the third quarter and more than two goals late in the last, they fell victim to the brilliance of Isaac Heeney and Chad Warner in the final quarter, a 31st minute goal to Joel Amartey giving the Swans a six-point win. That loss will be a tough loss to swallow for the AFL’s newest team, but they don’t have time to sit around feeling sorry for themselves with a clash against the Lions to come. Disappointing though that loss was, the Giants matched it and then some with the team which has been the best for the longest in an up and down 2024 season, and for large portions of that game looked every bit a team capable of going all the way this year.  
 
So, too, have the Lions for large portions of the year, last week included. Realistically they were a top four team, seemingly destined to earn the double chance after recovering from a slow start to the year, but a one-point loss to the Magpies in the penultimate round of the season ultimately saw them fall half a game short of the top four and forcing them to go the long way round if they want to go one step further than they did last year. Clearly that’s not ideal, but this team is very capable of doing just that and enjoyed a pretty straightforward path through to the semis last weekend. They opened up a ten-goal lead before the Blues even scored in an incredible first quarter and a half, and though Carlton did boot a few in  a row to keep neutrals interested, the Lions were ultimately able to keep them at bay all game and run out winners by a little under five goals.  
 
But this will be a much tougher assignment for last year’s runners-up. Not only do they have to leave the fortress that is the Gabba, they also take on a highly talented Giants team which arguably has as good a top group of players as anyone. The raw ability of this Giants team is hard to deny – their backline, led by Sam Taylor and Jack Buckley, is one of the best in the business, Jesse Hogan has developed into the best forward in the game and is ably supported by his captain, Toby Greene (who admittedly has been a long way below his best this season, while in the midfield names like Tom Green and Josh Kelly provide consistent headaches for any team. The Lions, however, have plenty of talent of their own, and are finals hardened having finished right up the pointy end of the ladder for most of the past few years.  
 
Little separates these teams in this game according to bookmakers, and it is easy to see why. They finished right alongside one another at the conclusion of the home and away season, and both looked very good in their opening game of the finals series, even if the end result of their games was different. Were this being played in Brisbane the odds would be reversed, but even in Sydney the Lions might have an edge. The Giants entered the finals in good form and were excellent for most of last week, but the Lions were the in-form team in the competition for large portions of the second half of the year. Both of these teams have unfinished business – Brisbane having lost the Grand Final to the Magpies in heartbreaking fashion last year and the Giants having given the Magpies that spot in the big dance with a one-point loss the week prior – but in a thrilling game, the visitors might be able to cause what would technically be the second upset of the season if the Power also get up, and sneak their way into another Preliminary Final.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Lions to win	$2.10
	Lions +5.5	$1.90
	Lions 1-39	$2.60

Predicted Squads

Greater Western Sydney Giants: B: H. Himmelberg, S. Taylor, C. Idun HB: L. Whitfield, J. Buckley, H. Perryman C: C. Ward, T. Green, J. Kelly HF: B. Daniels, A. Cadman, T. Bedford F: D. Jones, J. Hogan, T. Greene - C FOLL: K. Briggs, S. Coniglio, F. Callaghan I/C: J. Peatling, L. Ash, L. Keeffe, I. Cumming, X. O’Halloran EMG: J. Riccardi, C. Stone, N. Haynes

Brisbane Lions: B: D. Zorko, H. Andrews, B. Starcevich HB: D. Wilmot, J. Payne, R. Lester C: J. Fletcher, W. Ashcroft, H. McCluggage HF: C. Rayner, J. Daniher, J. Berry F: C. Cameron, E. Hipwood, Z. Bailey FOLL: O. McInerney, J. Dunkley, L. Neale - C I/C: K. Lohmann, C. Ah Chee, L. Morris, N. Answerth, C. McKenna EMG: H. Sharp, D. Fort, D. Joyce

• The Hawks might have been one of the in-form teams in the comp for an extended period, but the Power had won six games in a row entering the finals for a reason.  
• The Giants beat the Lions by three goals after going down by five goals at quarter-time a few weeks ago, but that result masked the reality of the game, with Brisbane booting 8. 16 for 24 scoring shots to the Giants’ 17 scoring shots – but they booted 13. 4 
• Hawthorn’s young gun small forward Nick Watson has hit form at the right time of year, booting at least three goals in each of his last three games.  

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