AFLW 2024 Semi-Finals – Betting Tips, Odds & Predictions

And then there were six. The first week of the AFLW Finals delivered in spades, with four entertaining games taking place over the course of the weekend, two teams making their way straight through to a home Preliminary Final, and two others eliminated from contention. The result is a couple of hopefully enthralling semi-final matchups, with the weekend’s action kicking off when the Crows host the Dockers in Norwood on Saturday afternoon, before the Hawks host the Power at IKON Park immediately after. There are clear favourites in both of those games, but both the Dockers and Power have been really solid this year and should not be taken lightly. Below, we take a deep dive into both games as these four teams look to lock up a spot in the penultimate week of the year.

No team has been able to beat the Crows with any sort of conviction this entire season, and that continued in their Qualifying Final clash against the Kangaroos. Unfortunately, however, it was a case of close but not close enough for the fourth time this season for Adelaide, who went down by seven points to the Kangaroos – a fortnight after losing to them by eight points. It was a brilliant game between arguably the best two teams in the business, and the Crows were right in the hunt throughout, even leading nearly halfway through the third quarter. Unfortunately, a couple of consecutive goals to the Roos gave them a ten-point lead heading into the final term, and the Premiership favourites were able to lock things down in a tight final quarter in which no team scored a goal until the 15-minute mark.

North Melbourne has been easily the best team in the league this season so that loss certainly did the Crows’ reputation no harm, but they will find little solace in that having now been forced to go the long way round if they want to win this year’s flag. They should, however, be very confident in their ability to at least get through to what would be a Preliminary Final matchup with the reigning Premiers, the Brisbane Lions.

But while the home team deserves comfortable favouritism, the Dockers are a really reliable team and will enter this game having not lost for over a month. They won their last three games of the home and away season to catapult into 5th place, earning themselves a home Elimination Final against the Bombers. Freo was not exactly convincing in that game, going down two goals to zip in the first quarter and conceding the lead once again in the third after working their way back into a strong position, but a two-goal to none final quarter saw them ultimately run out ten-point winners.

That kind of result is in line with what they have done most of the year; the Dockers have not been the kind of team to blow many others out of the water, but by and large they have done what they need to do against the teams that they should be beating.

One major concern for Fremantle in this matchup, however, is that they haven’t beaten a top four team this season. In fairness they have only played a couple of them – par for the course in such a short season – but while they were competitive against the Hawks – losing that game by only nine points – they were beaten really convincingly by the Crows earlier in the season.

It was way back in Round 2 when these two sides last met, and in that game there was a very clear discrepancy in talent between the two. The Dockers failed to kick a goal all game, managing just six behinds, while the Crows booted 5.9 to win by 33 points. What’s more, that game was over in Perth; with this one being played at Norwood Oval, Adelaide will have an even more distinct advantage.

Of course, that’s not to completely write off the Dockers. Winning form is good form and the ten-point win over the Bombers last week was the closest anyone has got to them since early October. Granted they have not played anyone in that time remotely close to the quality of Adelaide, but as the old adage goes, you can only beat the teams in front of you, and Fremantle has certainly done that. Still – the Dockers are certainly a solid team and have overall had a good season, but there is a clear gap between the top four and the rest, and though only one spot separated these two on the ladder after ten rounds, realistically the gap between the two is far more stark.

Anything can happen in finals footy, but the Crows would have to be a long way off their best – which hasn’t really happened this season – and the Dockers would have to play out of their skin – which also has not happened all that often this season. Maybe the visitors can hang around for a couple of quarters, but it’s hard to envision anything but an Adelaide victory here.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Crows to win	$1.20
	Crows -18.5	$1.91
	Crows 25+	$2.20

Predicted Squads

Adelaide Crows: FB: S. Allan, C. Biddell HB: S. Goodwin, Z. Prowse, K. Mueller C: M. Newman, C. Randall, N. Kelly HF: T. Charlton, D. Ponter, H. Munyard FF: C. Gould, S. Thompson Fol: J. Allan, E. Marinoff, A. Hatchard IC: R. Martin, K. Kustermann, T. Levy, L. Tarlinton, B. Tonon

Fremantle Dockers: FB: E. O’Driscoll, L. Pugh HB: J. Low, M. Scanlon, J. Flynn C: S. Verrier, H. Miller, O. Lally HF: P. Seth, G. Biedenweg-Webster, G. O’Sullivan FF: E. Antonio, M. Kauffman Fol: M. Strom, A. McCarthy, G. Newton IC: T. Kikoak, A. Mulholland, A. Mulholland, D. East, J. Cregg

The Hawks had an extremely impressive home and away season, dropping just a single game en route to a 2nd place finish. Despite that, they entered their home clash with the 3rd placed Lions as the slight underdogs, and those odds proved to be pretty much spot on. The Hawks started that game really solidly, and would have had a bigger lead than the 11-point margin they held over their opponents at the half-time break were it not for some inaccuracy in front of goal.

But regardless, there is every chance the Lions would have run over the top of them, such was the lopsided nature of the second half. The reigning Premiers flexed their collective muscle when they needed to most, with a three-goal to none third quarter and then another early in the final term opening up a two-goal lead late in the game. The Hawks kicked the next goal and then a point to get within a kick, but the Lions were able to hold on for a six-point win, sending Hawthorn to the semi-final in the process, where they will meet a Port Adelaide team on a hugely impressive winning streak.

The last time the Power lost was close to two months ago when they went down to the Tigers by 21 points, and since then they have won seven on the trot. The majority of those were, admittedly, against teams in the bottom half of the ladder, but up against the Tigers team which was the most recent to beat them, the Power showed they are more than capable of doing it against top eight sides as well. That was an exciting, high-scoring game, the Power jumping out to a 14-point quarter-time lead before the Tigers clawed their way back in front early in the third, but that lead change seemed to flick a switch in the Power’s collective minds, because they kicked six goals to two over the next quarter and a half to ultimately run out relatively comfortable four-goal winners. Offensively they were fantastic in that game, putting up the second highest score in their history, and showing that at their best they are capable of playing at a really high level.

And they will need to if they are to match it with the Hawks. Prior to their loss against the Lions last weekend, the Hawks had won eight games in a row, and plenty of them they had won easily. Their average winning margin in that time was more than 27 points, and while none of those games was against top four teams, they did play a couple of other finalists in the Tigers and the Dockers – beating them by 23 and nine points respectively – while they also disposed of the Cats and Demons – a couple of bottom ten sides who most would argue were more than capable of playing finals footy. The only team that has knocked off the Hawks all season are the Crows and Lions, both of whom have long been nestled comfortably among the Premiership favourites, so for the Power to beat them they will have to upend a pretty significant trend.

Port, too, have largely struggled against top eight and particularly top four teams this season. In the home and away season, they lost to the Crows by 14 points, the Dockers by eight, the Kangaroos by 36 and the Tigers by 21, failing to beat a top eight team for the entirety of the season. But on the flip side of the coin, there is no denying that they have improved throughout the course of the season, and it showed when they recorded their first victory against a finals team when it mattered most in an Elimination Final last weekend.

But impressive though that victory was, the Hawks are a different kettle of fish. Perhaps more so than in the first semi-final, it’s not out of the realms of possibility to see the Power putting in a really strong performance, particularly given how they played in the back half of last week’s game.

But the Hawks have been unflappable all season long, and even last week could very easily have snatched victory against an excellent team. Expect this to be an entertaining game between two teams very capable of putting scores on the board – the Power coming off a particularly impressive offensive performance – but the Hawks well and truly deserve their comfortable favouritism, and should be able to lock in an extremely difficult matchup against the Roos in the Preliminary Finals.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Hawks to win	$1.16
	Matilda Scholz to have 15+ disposals	$1.50
	Hawks 1-39	$1.60

Predicted Squads

Hawthorn Hawks: FB: E. Everist, A. Kemp HB: J. Richardson, M. Eardley, T. Lucas-Rodd C: K. Ashmore, M. Breed, T. Smith HF: J. Fleming, B. Hipwell, A. Gilroy FF: A. McDonagh, G. Bodey Fol: L. Wales, E. Bates, E. West IC: M. Williamson, L. Stephenson, C. Sherriff, L. Elliott, J. Vukic

Port Adelaide Power: FB: M. Brooksby, A. Borg HB: T. Germech, E. O’Dea, A. Foley C: S. Goody, M. Moloney, E. Boag HF: K. Lamb. Mules-Robinson, O. Levicki FF: A. Saint, G. Houghton Fol: M. Scholz, A. Dowrick, C. Hammond IC: J. Teakle, K. Pope, C. Wendland, P. Window, S. Syme

• The Crows have been pretty good at winning by big margins this season, with five of their eight wins coming by at least 26 points.
• The Hawks have hardly been beaten all season, but when the Power have lost it has never been by all that much – their biggest defeat is 36 points, and their second biggest just 21.
• Matilda Scholz has got better as the season has worn on. After failing to get more than 13 touches in her first five games of the year, she has picked up at least 15 in six consecutive games.

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