State of Origin 2024– Betting tips & Predictions

It’s every neutral State of Origin fan’s dream; a Game 3 with the series tied at 1-1, and on Wednesday night that is exactly what we’ll get when the series heads to Suncorp Stadium for the decider. It certainly hasn’t been the greatest series in history so far, the Maroons winning in Sydney 38-10 before the Blues bounced back with a 38-18 victory at the MCG, but though the two games have individually been lopsided, they have made for a series which is going the distance. The Maroons, unsurprisingly, will head in as favourites at a ground at which they have won six of their last seven, but after the wild swing between Games 1 and 2 of this series, it’s anyone’s guess how this one will play out. 

The contrast between those first two games could hardly have been more different. On their home turf no less, the Blues were comprehensively outplayed in Game 1, though given they played that one man down for the vast majority of the game there was always the prospect that they would be able to turn things around at a neutral venue. Few, however, would have predicted the extent of that turnaround. Needing to win to stay alive in the series, the Blues were absolutely clinical, racing out to a 34-0 lead by half-time, and though they didn’t enjoy nearly the same dominance in the second half, the Maroons were never going to be able to get back into that one. They will likely take some solace from the fact that they outscored their opposition 18-4 in the second half, though down 34 points in that game already, that half did not have nearly the same level of intensity as what we will see in Game 3.  
 
So to the changes. Latrell Mitchell played a major role in the Blues’ Game 2 dominance, but he will unfortunately be forced to miss this game through injury, and his absence will be a significant one for his side. But they will not be the only one enduring injury woes. The Maroons will be without both Xavier Coates and Murray Taulagi, though with Selwyn Cobbo and Dane Gagai coming into the side and Game 3 specialist Valentine Holmes moving to the wing as a result, their three-quarter line is still looking pretty dangerous. 
 
As relevant as all the match-up based analysis is, and significant as the Blues’ Game 2 dominance was, however, it’s the venue of this game which looms large as perhaps the most important metric. Suncorp Stadium is and has long been an absolute cauldron for the Maroons, who have very rarely lost for many years on their home turf. As mentioned, they have won six of their last seven Origin games at the ground, and that run extends even further – they have also picked up nine wins from their last 11 there, and 15 of their last 18 harking back well over a decade. Thirteen times a deciding game has been played there, and the home side has an 11-2 record in those games. The two occasions on which the Blues have won? Once was in 1994, the other in 2005.  
 
This is set to be a fascinating game after such a contrasting first two matches of the series, and with so much elite talent on both teams, the potential for individual brilliance to swing the game is high. This was evidenced by the performances of guys like Latrell Mitchell and Mitch Moses in Game 2, both of whom played massive roles for their team, but as mentioned Mitchell will miss this one, and though the Blues are not the only team with injury concerns, that may be the most significant of them all.  
 
The Maroons are renowned for their ability to get the job done when it matters most, a trait which is personified by a player like Valentine Holmes, who time and time again has put together electric performances with the series on the line. Of course, they won’t be reliant entirely on him nor any one individual player to win this one, but having pulled through when they need to so many times before – particularly on their home turf – the Maroons have a belief, edge and aura of inevitability about them that is hard to deny. The odds suggest this will be a close one and there is every chance that will come to fruition, but when the whips are cracking, with the crowd behind them, the Maroons can earn another famous victory to retain the shield.    

Predicted Squads

New South Wales Blues: 1. Dylan Edwards 2. Brian To’o 3. Stephen Crichton 4. Bradman Best 5. Zac Lomax 6. Jarome Luai 7. Mitch Moses 8. Jake Trbojevic 9. Reece Robson 10. Payne Haas 11. Liam Martin 12. Angus Crichton 13. Cameron Murray 14. Connor Watson 15. Isaah Yeo 16. Mitch Barnett 17. Spencer Leniu 18. Matt Burton 19. Haumole Olakau'atu 20. Joseph Sua'ali'i

Queensland Maroons: 1. Reece Walsh 
2. Selwyn Cobbo 
3. Dane Gagai 
4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 
5. Valentine Holmes 
6. Tom Dearden 
7. Daly Cherry-Evans 
8. Reuben Cotter 
9. Ben Hunt 
10. Lindsay Collins 
11. Kurt Capewell 
12. Jeremiah Nanai 
13. Patrick Carrigan 
 
14. Harry Grant 
15. Moeaki Fotuaika 
16. Felise Kaufusi 
17. Kalyn Ponga 18. Trent Loiero 
19. Brendan Piakura 
20. Reed Mahoney

At BettingTop10, we have got plenty of other tips and previews for you to take a look at beyond just the State of Origin. If you’ve got this far presumably you’re a rugby league fan, so our weekly NRL prediction pieces will likely appeal to you. Aside from that, we also have weekly AFL tips and match previews, as well as a number of NBA pieces throughout the course of the week, meaning we cater for a wide range of sports fans. 
 
What’s more, if you just want information about different betting sites in Australia and which one you should use, we have got you covered there, too. We have a list of online bookmakers in Australia as well as plenty of detailed bookmaker reviews which can help you find the best NRL betting sites, cover all manner of different topics, from what sort of range of sports each of them offer, through to their odds, customer service, and who offers the best betting apps. So whatever it is that you’re looking for, being it sports-specific information, details about different betting sites or a combination of the two, at BettingTop10, we’ve got it.