The stats you need to know for The Everest and Caulfield Cup

The Everest looks like a seriously competitive renewal this year. There is a longer-priced favourite at Randwick than there is at Caulfield for the cup! How do we think those favourites are going to get on? Let’s dig into the important stats.

The girls have struggled in The Everest

18 fillies and mares have taken their chance in The Everest so far. Not a single one of them has even been placed! That record could be broken this year if the prices from the horse racing bookmakers are accurate.

The $6 favourite Joliestar is a mare, one of five in the field of 12. Bella Nipotina, Sunshine In Paris, Stefi Magnetica and Lady Of Camelot round out the fairer sex in the race priced at $9, $10, $13 and $51 respectively. Four of the first seven in the betting are female.

Four-year-old Everest record is a struggle

Runners aged three, five, six and seven have all won The Everest in the short history of the race. There is yet to be a winner who is aged four which might come as a shock to some. A four-year-old is often a peak year for so many, so what can we learn from this with regard to Randwick on Saturday?

Firstly, there have only been seven runnings of the race. It is not the biggest sample size to go on but every year a four-year-old fails to win, it grows. Two three-year-old runners have won the race but that looks down to the massive weight allowance the age group receives.

Sprinters take a little more time to bulk out into their frame than a lighter, longer-distance type. Nature Strip won the race as a seven-year-old with Eduardo aged eight placed behind him. Don’t ignore the veterans in the race but worry that the favourite Joliestar is aged four.

How important is the Caulfield Cup draw?

In an 18-runner field, even over 2400m, being wide can make things a little more difficult. When it comes to the cup itself, winners have come from wide but the inner half of the draw has an advantage. The runners drawn in the lower half of the barriers in the past decade have filled 60% of the first four across the line.

That suggests that it is an advantage but not a massive one to be drawn between one and nine rather than in a double-figure barrier. Five of the 10 winners have been drawn six, seven or eight. Eight is the barrier where favourite Buckaroo will start from on Saturday.

That suggests that he has the perfect starting position to make his bid for glory. It does not hurt that his trainer Chris Waller has won two of the last four Caulfield Cups either.

Does age matter in the Caulfield Cup?

In complete contrast to The Everest, four-year-olds have a strong recent record in the Caulfield Cup. That age group have been responsible for four winners in the last decade as well as seven runner-ups and four thirds.

They are an age group who are well represented of course as are five and six who have made up the other six winners with the six-year-olds winning four. The favourite Buckaroo is aged six.

Stats suggest Joliestar is a horrible favourite for The Everest. A four-year-old female, neither her age group nor sex have won the race. At Caulfield, Buckaroo heads the market. He ticks the right boxes in terms of age, draw and trainer, looking the better favourite of the pair.